IS THE WAR WITH IRAN GETTING WORSE?

All signs show that the War with Iran is escalating.  If we were to invade Kharg Island, that would be a very serious worsening, but there appears to be another front opening up regarding the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

• This is that other choke point (20 miles wide) through which 7% of all oil passes, that connects the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea, leading to the Suez Canal and into the Mediterranean Sea.
• About 1240 miles southwest of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Control divided among Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa.  Yemen dominates with 43 million people, Eritrea 3.7 million and Djibouti 1.2 million.  However, this strait is so important that the U.S., China, France and other countries maintain heavy naval and military presence in Djibouti.
• Keep in  mind that the 12-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) holds 80% of the world's proven crude oil reserves.

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  Bab means gate, while Mandeb means grief.  This grief part has to do with Arab legend that many were drowned by an earthquake 3 to 4 million years ago that permanently separated the Arabian Peninsula from the Horn of Africa.

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  During the last 100,000 years, global sea level fluctuations have led to several physical stoppages of water flow.  During this early period, this was a major migration crossing point from Africa to Asia.
• The Arabian side had British presence until 1967, when it became part of the People's Republic of South Yemen

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  In 2008, plans were unveiled to build a bridge linking Yemen with Djibouti. Twenty miles sound formidable, but the longest current bridge is the 102.4-mile wide Danyang-Kunshan Grand Bridge in China.  The longest bridge over water is 24 miles, the Lake Pontchatrain Causeway, near New Orleans.

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  So anyway, closing of this strait would hurt crude oil and liquefied natural gas from Iraq, Kuwait the UAE, and, especially Saudi Arabia.
• 7% of seaborne-traded oil passes through this strait.
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  The problem here is that the Houthis have had past conflicts with Saudi Arabia.
• Are a large clan practicing Zaydi, a form of Shiism.  Zaydis make up 35% the population of Yemen.  But it is unclear what percent of Zaydis are Houthis.
• A Zaydi imamate rule Yemen for 1000 years, before being overthrown in 1962.
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  Abdul Malik al Houthi (right) has been the group's spiritual, military and political leader since 2007.  His brothers and brother-in-law have leadership roles.
• The Houthies are an Iran backed political and military organization in Yemen.  

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  They emerged in the 1990s from the Shia minority, crossing into Saudi Arabia for skirmishes in 2009 and seizing control of Yemen's capital of Sana'a in 2014.  Fought against Saudi Arabia again in 2015.  Fired ballistic missiles into King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh in 2017.  Also killed Yemen's first president of Yemen in 2017.  Kept up missile strikes and damaged a Saudi oil tanker in 2018, then drone attacks at oil installations in Saudi Arabia in 2019.  Lot going on here that miss the national news.
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  Attacked the UAE with drones and missiles in 2022.
• Their slogan:  Death to America, death to Israel, curse the Jews, and victory to Islam.
• Population of Yemen is 27 million.  9.4 million Zaydis.  Only 350,000 core Houthis, but they rule over 75% of Yemen.

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  Read this article for details into the above.
• So violence has begun in this new region.
• Saudi Arabia, using their Yemeni allies, attacked Sanaa International Airport and announced a blockade of Yemen.

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  The Houthis reacted by threatening a blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.  There has been history, for they upended global shipping between November 2024 and January 2025 when they attacked over 100 merchant vessels in this strait.  The Houthis attitude today is that Iran "won" the war over the USA, and it's about time for this militant group to show some support.

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