ARE WE GETTING MORE EARTHQUAKES?

Before my blog on earthquakes, two newsworthy items:

• The lull in the Iran War is over.  Iran lobbed missiles at American bases in the Middle East.
• Here is the backdrop:

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  Way back in February, Netanyahu and Trump felt that, if they could surprise Iran with a serious series of bombardments, they could assassinate the Supreme Leader, plus many dozens of top government leaders, stimulating the people to rebel and overcome.  Israel and the USA could then swoop in, establish a new government, and totally demolish any nuclear ambitions.

• 
  The USA/Israel did succeed in killing Ali Khamenei and 53 leaders.  Here is the complete list.
• However, Iran knew someday this would happen, and they organized a plan to take control of the Strait of Hormuz, and if necessary, also the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

• 
  Here is the current situation.
• The people did not rebel, a new government formed and Iran has been able to maintain control over the two oil flow choke points.
• They also are not idiots.  Remember what AI has indicated?

A wily Iranian carpet dealer is commonly stereotyped as a shrewd, charming, and highly skilled negotiator who uses hospitality, theatrical storytelling, and deep product knowledge to close a sale.

• 
  Iran knows that they can survive with no timing problem, if the USA does not place many thousands of boots on the ground, something that  will lead to a long ground war with huge casualties, perhaps more than the 7,000 American troops killed in the Middle East since 2001.
• The result of this war is a major economic problem for the U.S. and world, spurred by higher petroleum and fertilizer costs.

• 
  President Trump is faced with a mid-term election problem that is only 97 days away.
• Who knows what will happen.
• Invasion of Kharg Island?
• Postponement of mid-term elections? 
• The Supreme Court and Congress have no enforcement powers, all controlled by the President, an existential flaw of our Constitution.  Thus, the end of democracy in the U.S.?

• 
  How goes the confirmation process of now acting attorney general Todd Blanche in the U.S. Senate?
• John Cornyn (R-Texas), is threatening to vote against the confirmation of Blanche.  My sense is that Cornyn will be provided enough satisfaction for Blanche to come to floor vote.
• This is when it could get embarrassing for Republicans, for they have a 3-vote majority.
• 
  There are three senators not returning next year because they defied Trump, and either voluntarily chose to retire, like Senator Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina), or lost primaries, like Cornyn, Senator Bill Cassidy (R-Louisiana) and Cornyn.
• However, a tie just means that Veep JD Vance will break it.
• 
  The interesting wild card is Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky).
• He remains not well enough to return for a floor vote, but just his absence would deny Blanche confirmation.
• Or, if a vote is held, he could show up on the floor, and rather dramatically vote no.  For good personal reasons.
• But, so what.  Another person will be nominated who will be similarly loyal only to President Trump.

So on to my posting of the day, I asked Google AI, are we getting more serious earthquakes?

No, we are not getting more serious earthquakes in the 21st century; the long-term frequency of major earthquakes remains remarkably constant. Instead, better technology, higher global populations, and instant news make normal seismic activity feel more frequent and intense. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

Why It Feels Like There Are More Earthquakes

Better Technology: Modern global networks use sensitive tools that spot and record tiny tremors we used to miss entirely.
Instant News: Fast digital communication and social media mean we hear about remote or minor shakes right away.
More People: Growing cities mean more humans live near active fault lines, leading to higher damage and media coverage when a quake hits. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]

The Scientific Reality

Stable Averages: Long-term data shows the Earth averages about 15 to 18 major earthquakes (magnitude 7.0 or higher) every year, a rate that has not changed over the past century. [1, 2]
Normal Variation: Yearly totals naturally go up and down slightly, but these shifts are regular random fluctuations, not a sign of an upward trend. [1, 2]

The key statement above is that our Planet Earth has suffered from 15 to 18 magnitude 7.0 earthquakes each year for the past century.

We will be into our 8th month in a few days, and have suffered from 9 (or 10) earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 and above.  So in the next 5 months, we should, perhaps, experience around 6 or 7 more.

Major Earthquakes (Magnitude 7.0+)

Magnitude 7.8: Offshore the Philippines (June 7)
Magnitude 7.5: Tonga (March 24) and Venezuela (June 24)
Magnitude 7.4: Indonesia (April 1) and Japan (April 20)
Magnitude 7.3: Vanuatu (March 30) and Mexico (July 17)
Magnitude 7.2: Venezuela (June 24)
Magnitude 7.1: Malaysia (February 22) [1, 2]
Magnitude 7.1: Kumamoto, Japan (July 29).  That was the measurement of the Japan Meteorological Agency.  The USGS called it a 6.8.

Further:

• Two of the above earthquakes resulted in deaths.
• 5,546 from both Venezuela shakes.
• 107 from the one in the Philippines.
• In addition, 18 (and counting) died yesterday in the 6.8 (or 7.1) Kumamoto (Japan) quake and 12 in 5.8 magnitude earthquake in Afghanistan on April 3.  
• Can you believe that we have had 53 earthquakes this year of magnitude 6.0-6.9?
• If you are in a 5.0 earthquake, it can scare you.

• 
  I reported in the Huffington Post in 2011 when I was reporting for them of a 7.1 magnitude in Tokyo.  This was a late aftershock of the cataclysmic 9.0 Great Tohoku Earthquake, Tsunami and Nuclear Disaster.  Just saw that this earthquake is now officially of 9.1 magnitude.
• The largest five?

• 11960 Valdivia, Chile (Magnitude 9.4 - 9.6)
• 21964 Anchorage, USA (Magnitude 9.2)
• 32004 Indian Ocean, Indonesia (Magnitude 9.1 - 9.3)
• 42011 Tohoku Earthquake, Japan (Magnitude 9.1)
• 51952 Kamchatka Earthquake, Russia (Magnitude 9.0)

• 
  
  

I had another HuffPo assignment earlier, when on 27February2010, Chile was hit by an 8.8 magnitude earthquake.  The title was, Hawaii Tsunami?  This was an interesting story because I wrote this article from Amsterdam, Netherlands.

You can also rate earthquakes by number of deaths:

• #1  1556 Shaanxi Earthquake, China (8.0), up to 850,000.
• #2  1976 Tangshan Earthquake, China (7.6), up to 300,000.
• #3    526 Antioch Earthquake, Syria/Turkey, up to 300,000.
• #4  1920 Haiyuan Earthquake, China (7.8), 273,407.
• #5  2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami, Indonesia (9.2 or 9.3), 227,898.

What a way to close....but:

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