WARS and TEXAS POLITICS

The USA is now also at war with Ecuador:

• Lost count.  Are we up to 8 or 9 wars?
• This latest one today was welcomed by President Daniel Noboa, a friend of Donald Trump.
• This action by the U.S. was to rid the area of drug cartels, which pretty much dominates our many wars.  These are worthwhile.

About Day 5 of the Iran War:

• Looks like things are getting better for the U.S. and Israel....and worse for Iran.  Read a summary from CBS News.
• Iranian missile and drone attacks are declining, perhaps 80% less today compared to Days 1 and 2.

• 
  Iranian attacks on their adjacent countries have turned the Arab world against them.  Bad decision by Iran.
• No doubt 175 people, mostly school girls, were killed on Day One of the attack, but it remains unclear if Israel or the USA was to blame.   In case you were not aware, Israel executed the Supreme Leader, not the U.S.

• 
  Traffic has dried up in the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of the world's crude oil and natural gas pass.
• But the Iranian navy is now decimated.
• U.S. is arranging for ships to be insured at low cost for future sailing, with U.S. Navy escort.  But this takes time to arrange, so it is unclear exactly when oil prices can begin to drop.  Plus, oil companies have historically immediately raised prices during crises, and do what they can to delay dropping them, to maximize profits.

• The options for Americans wanting to leave the Middle East are improving.
• 
  White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, had a press conference today.
• Watch the whole briefing.
• Tried to explain why the U.S. is involved.
• Again condemned CNN for unfair reportage.
• Insulted former president Barack Obama.
• Said oil prices were dropping.  They are not, for Brent crude is up to $82.49/barrel (+1.34%) and WTI crude to $76.11/barrel (+2.08%) today.  However, it looks like some order is being established, and I would not be surprised if the up to 60 cents/gallon jump in gasoline prices since Day 1 will peak and maybe even slightly decline over the next few days.
• 
  Six American military deaths against 49 Iranian high leadership kills sounds like success.  War is terrible, but someone will win, and the U.S.-Israel partnership holds the upper hand today.
• The huge question is, will the people rise to restore democracy?  Certainly will not occur this week or month.
• What will the U.S. Congress do to chastise President Trump about his not first gaining their approval?  Republicans control chambers.  Expect no serious rebukes, but, of course more funding for arms and munitions.

Anything to report about those primaries in North Carolina and Texas?

• 
  Texas and North Carolina Republicans are incumbents: John Cornyn and Thom Tillis, who chose not to re-run.
• Republicans currently have a 53-47 majority.
• In other words, Democrats need to win four new seats in November....if there is a mid-term election.

• 
  In North Carolina, Democratic Governor Roy Cooper will face Republican Michael Whatley.  Google AI says:
• A January/February 2026 poll from Change Research showed Cooper at 50% and Whatley at 40%.
• A January 2026 TIPP Insights poll showed a wider margin, with Cooper at 48% and Whatley at 24%.
• Earlier, in July 2025, an Emerson College poll showed a tighter race, with Cooper at 47% and Whatley at 41%.
• Independent Voter Support: Early polling indicates Cooper has a 19-point advantage over Whatley among independent voters.
• So this should be win #1 for Democrats.
• 
  In Texas, it's a mess for Republicans.
• Republican John Cornyn is currently the incumbent.
• However, the high expectation was that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton would easily beat Cornyn to become the Republican nominee in November.  
• This did not happen.
• With 98% votes counted, Cornyn 41.9% and Paxton 40.7%.
• As neither got at least 50% of the votes, there will be a runoff in May.

• 
  Paxton is almost like a Trump clone.
• He was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 for abuse of office, bribery and misuse of public funds.
• Has a long-standing criminal charge (since 2015) of security fraud.
• Politico and The New York Times have labelled him unethical and scandal-plagued.
• His wife filed for divorce amid allegations of an extramarital affairs.
• Yet, he maintains strong support from the MAGA wing of the Republican party.

• 
  Donald Trump expects to pick one of these Republicans shortly, and thus expects the other to essentially drop out of the runoff.
• Paxton is a MAGA-guy, so you would think should be the likely selection.
• Cornyn has had a strained relationship with Trump for not supporting Trump's election claims, is for gun safety and has been labeled a RINO by Trump, meaning Republican In Name Only.
• However, in his Texas re-election campaign this year, Cornyn wisely hired four former top political advisers from Trump's orbit.
• While Trump is not exactly popular these days, his endorsement could be the difference maker as to who wins the runoff and mid-term election against James Talarico.
• My gut feeling is that Trump will side with Cornyn.  We'll know soon.
• 
  With 98% of results in, Talarico got 52.5% to Jasmine Crockett's 46.2, a solid win.  
• The Democrats don't need a runoff.
• While their campaign was a bit sticky, Talarico absolutely needs Crockett by his side over the next 8 months.  She is the key to black votes in Houston and Dallas.  Texas has the largest Black population of any state.
• Talarico looks like a clean-cut, young nice guy....and he is.  But he also graduated from the University of Texas and Harvard, and in his mid-30s, has already spent four terms in the Texas Legislature.
• 
  There are more Democratic voters in Texas than Republicans.
• But Republicans in 2024 had a turnout rate of 80.3% to 58.5% for Democrats.
• Not sure about Independents.
• Here is where Crockett can really help Talarico.
• If they can together somehow get the residents to vote, Talarico has a chance to win.

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