USA WILL INVADE KHARG ISLAND

By the way, take a look at the Google page today:

Google is featuring a math-themed doodle to celebrate the quadratic equation:

aiming to make algebra interactive and fun for students and teachers. The animated doodle highlights how this formula shapes curves and has real-world applications in physics, engineering, and sports. 

To kick-off this posting, I first asked Google AI, tell me the timeline since 28February2026 of how President Donald Trump has attempted to explain why the U.S. is at war with Iran.

Timeline of Events and Statements

• February 28, 2026: The U.S. and Israel launch coordinated strikes, with reports indicating the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
• Late February/Early March 2026: President Trump states the mission is to destroy Iran's missile capabilities, navy, and nuclear ambitions, and to stop Iranian funding of proxies.
• March 1-2, 2026: Trump suggests the operation could take "four to five weeks" but later indicates it could be faster, describing it as a "four-week process" or "two or three days" depending on objectives.
• March 10, 2026: Trump claims the war is ahead of schedule, with the U.S. military having destroyed much of Iran's navy and drone capabilities, stating the conflict will be over "soon".
• March 10, 2026: Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth describes the operation as having "only just begun" and that the war will end on the U.S.'s timeline. 

Reasons for the Conflict According to Trump

President Trump and his administration have provided several justifications for the campaign, which they argue are essential to national security: 

• Imminent Threat: Assertions that Iran was preparing to attack U.S. forces and allies.
• Nuclear and Military Threat: The need to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities, missile production, and navy to ensure they cannot obtain a nuclear weapon.
• Retribution: Cited as a response to 47 years of Iranian-backed "bloodshed and mass murder" against the U.S. and its allies.
• Elimination of Leadership: Targeting Iranian leadership, with Trump claiming that "48 Iranian leaders had been wiped out in one shot".
• Geopolitical Stability: The stated goal of achieving "PEACE THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST AND, INDEED, THE WORLD!". 

Throughout the initial two weeks, Trump has presented conflicting messages on the timeline, alternating between stating the war could be over very quickly to warning it could take longer, while vowing to continue until objectives are met. 

Okay, that's what I generally thought, too.  So Question #2:  Google AI, predict the price of oil a month into this Iran War.

Based on market analysis and forecasts available as of mid-March 2026, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on March 28, 2026, is expected to be part of a highly volatile, elevated period due to ongoing geopolitical conflict.

 

• Near-Term Outlook (March/April 2026): Following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and the subsequent disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, major financial institutions have sharply raised their near-term forecasts. Goldman Sachs raised its Q2 2026 WTI forecasts to $71 per barrel, while Standard Chartered raised its Q1 2026 Brent target to $74, suggesting WTI will likely trade comfortably above $65–$70 in March 2026.
• Geopolitical Premium: As of March 12, 2026, both Brent and WTI briefly topped $119 per barrel, their highest levels since mid-2022. While some analysts anticipated a dip, the market is pricing in a significant "geopolitical risk premium" of $4–$10 per barrel due to the Strait of Hormuz crisis.
• Alternative Projections: While the EIA recently raised its 2026 average WTI forecast to $73.61 per barrel, some industry analysts (like JPMorgan) maintained a more bearish long-term view for the year, anticipating a potential average closer to $60/bbl due to a supply-demand surplus. 

Conclusion:

Given the rapid escalation in early March 2026, WTI is trading higher than previously expected for the year. A "best guess" for late March 2026, assuming the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, would be a price in the high $60s to mid-$70s per barrel, with potential for higher spikes if conflict intensifies. 

Google AI, my third and final question:  If Iran successfully stops oil passage through the Strait of Hormuz, what do you think will be the price of oil in mid-April 2026.

Based on analysis of the situation as of mid-March 2026, if Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz for another month leading into mid-April, oil prices are projected to rise significantly, with estimates widely pointing toward a sustained triple-digit price, potentially reaching $200/barrel.  Here are the key factors driving this projection:

Supply Shock: A continued closure shuts off roughly 20 million barrels per day (mbpd) of oil and LNG, about 20% of global consumption, creating an unprecedented 13–15 mbpd deficit that cannot be easily rerouted.

• Price Forecasts: While prices surged upon the initial shutdown, a month-long closure is expected to cause a "1970s-style energy shock". Analysts from Macquarie Research and others have indicated a potential spike towards $150/barrel, with some scenarios warning of $200/barrel.
  
  
  Market Impact: The inability to move oil from major producers like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq via the Strait, even with alternative pipelines, would likely trigger extreme volatility.
• Diminishing Reserves: While the International Energy Agency (IEA) has authorized the release of 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, a prolonged, full-month shutdown is likely to overwhelm these short-term measures. 

Key Considerations

The actual price in mid-April will depend on whether global powers take military action to reopen the waterway, the extent of damage to oil infrastructure, and the effectiveness of alternative, non-Hormuz export routes. 

Democratic Senator John Fetterman, not a Donald Trump fan at all, but supports the President on his war with Iran.  Watch this video.   Among others are Democratic Congressman Jared Golden (ME), Greg Landsman ()H), Henry Cuellar (TX), Juan Vargas (CA) and Josh Gottheimer (NJ).  I find I'm also so swayed, and some of my postings indicate so.

One obvious next focus will be on Iran's Kharg Island, where 90% of their crude are processed, stored and loaded.  The U.S. finally decided to bomb this island, but only military targets.  

• Clearly, one next phase of our strategy will be, with as much air cover as necessary, invade this island, for an additional 2500 Marines and the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli are being deployed to the Middle East.  These, and other American troops will also soon invade Iran around the Strait of Hormuz.  With other European nations participating, Naval ships will protect oil tankers traversing the Strait.  
• When?
• Kharg island is located 16 miles away from the coastline, and is about 300 miles northwest of the Strait of Hormuz.  8000 Iranian civilians live there.

I'll close with Iranian songs now somewhat popular in the USA.

• Baraye by Shervin Hajipour (right):  became a global phenomenon and an anthem for the 2022 Iranian protests.
• Azim by Ed Sheeran:  a 2025 release merging Persian culture with Wester pop, produced with Iranian-Swedish songwriter Ilya Salvanzadeh.  Azizam means my dear.

• 
  Following the 1979 Revolution, Westwood and Glendale in Los Angeles became hubs for Persian music, nicknamed Tehrangeles.
• Iconic and traditional songs.
• Gole Yakh (Ice Flower), a 1970s classic that is frequently streamed and covered.

• 
  Soltane Ghalba:  a very popular oldie.
• Mohsen Namjoo:  mixes Persian classical with Western blues and rock.
• Modern Trends.
• Dokhtar Irooni by the Black Cats.
• Behet Ghol Midam (I Promise You) by Moohsen Yeganeh.

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