YOU CAN BET ON IT

Today, gambling....the casino kind and more.  But first, a few more things about petroleum, my feature yesterday: 

• Iran warns oil could hit $200 as it fires on merchant ships.

• WTI Crude Oil dropped from $110/barrel (price just before the market re-opened on Monday) to $82/barrel yesterday, but increased to $87/barrel today.

• 
  The stabilization occurred because Donald Trump said this would be a short war, plus the International Agency recommended the release of 400 million barrels from global strategic reserves.  Note that the world roughly produces 106 million barrels of oil/day, and the USA is #1 with 13.6 million barrels/day.  Amazingly enough, North America is the largest oil-producing region, with over 31 million barrels/day.

• 
  The world strategic petroleum reserve holds over 2 billion barrels, of which 20% will be released.  The USA has 415 million barrels in Gulf Coast salt caverns, which are designed to hold 714 million barrels.  President Trump today authorized the withdrawal of 172 million barrels, which can be taken out at a maximum of 4.4 million barrels/day.  The U.S. uses oil at a daily rate of 20.5 million barrels.

• 
  While Iran is targeting Middle East oil facilities, both Israel and the U.S. have not touched Iran's Kharg Island, which handles 90% of Iranian oil, for fear of really shocking the system.  
• So knowing all the above, I asked Google AI what it thinks will be the price of oil next week:

WTI crude oil prices for next week (March 16–22, 2026) are projected to remain volatile, with analysts and market data suggesting a trading range between 

$71.84 and $89.72per barrel. 

So on to my topic of the day.  I live in Hawaii, one of the two states in the U.S. where any kind of betting is illegal.  Why so strict?  Google AI:

Betting is illegal in Hawaii—one of only two U.S. states with a near-total ban—due to deep-rooted cultural values prioritizing family and community well-being over profit

. Lawmakers fear gambling brings addiction, increases crime, destroys the islands' relaxed atmosphere, and hurts, rather than helps, residents. 

The other state is Utah, mostly because of the Mormon religion, the majority of the population.

Turns out that religion is the main reason for the prohibition of gambling in many countries:

• Muslims follow the Quran, which makes gambling a grave sin.  
• Get this:  anyone caught gambling in Iran will receive flogging or 6 months of imprisonment.  If you gamble in public you will suffer from both.  
• 
  Across the globe is the largest Muslim nation, Indonesia.  It too doesn't allow gambling, physical or online.
• Malaysia is 65% Muslim, but lotteries, casino games and horse racing are legal.
• Buddhist Thailand makes it illegal because it does not direct a person to a noble path.

• 
  There are socially acceptable options like bingo, raffles and similar activities that are allowed in some.
• For similar religious reasons, many of these countries also prohibit the drinking of alcohol.

About betting:

• The area that generates the most revenue from gambling is......Europe.  More than $140 billion annually.  Leading this pack is the UK.
• Gambling is embedded in many Asian cultures, where kids learn to gamble by playing games with elders.  Market size is expected to grow to $37.5 billion in 2028.

• 
  The Chinese culture has generally advocated gambling, but communism got in the way.
• Government approved lotteries are okay.
• All land-based and online gambling is banned.
• However, small-stakes friendly games among friends and family are tolerated, as for mahjong.
• Some countries favor their economy--revenue generation, job creation, tourism, technology growth, investment--more than social goodwill:  

Active gamblers?

By revenue:

Several countries dominate the global gambling industry in terms of total revenue:

• United States: Home to Las Vegas and online sports betting, the U.S. is a gambling powerhouse.
• China (Macau): Known as the “Gambling Capital of the World,” Macau generates billions in casino revenue.
• Japan: With a thriving pachinko industry, Japan ranks among the top gambling nations.
• United Kingdom: A well-regulated market with high participation in sports betting and online gambling.

Japan in particular is a special case.

• No casinos.
• Gamblers spend $200 billion/year on Pachinko alone.  This is 30 times the Las Vegas annual gambling revenue.
• However, looking at the above leading revenue list, why isn't Japan #1?
• The $200 billion figure represents total gross turnover (money inserted), not net revenue (profit).
• This profit for the parlor is is relatively small.
• An, incidentally, there is declining interest in Pachinko.  30 million in 1994 to now closer to 7 million players.  In 1997 there were 17,000 parlors.  Was down to 6,706 in 2024.
• Japan forbids cash prices.  Their loophole is exchanging certain prizes from something called a tuck shop to cash.

I hate to brag like this, but, first, I'm not much of a gambler.  However, I will be in Las Vegas next week.  I am ahead in gambling in Nevada, and haven't gambled anywhere else.  How did I accomplish this?

• First, I avoid table games, mostly because I don't know how to play them.
• My machine betting is limited to penny slots.  Mind you, these can cost you a dollar if you pick the 100 chances option a every push.
• I do pick football teams on parlay cards.
• A long time ago, maybe more than a quarter century, I spent a day in Vegas and picked up 5 cards to watch over when I went to DC for meetings.  One them had 12 teams on a $5 bet.  The others had fewer teams for $2 each.
• It was a cold, rainy day in the Nation's capital, so I just watched NCAA football games on the room TV.  Missed a game or two on the $2 cards.  But the $5 card got 10 correct, with two NFL games remaining on Sunday.
• Both my teams won, so I had a card worth around $12,500, which I cashed in some months later.
• I will never lose anything like that in the few years I have left to live, so I will always be a gambling winner.
• 
  I was in Sparks, Nevada, an even longer time ago.  
• From a motel I went to a casino for a cheap steak dinner.  
• On the way out, placed a quarter in an isolated slot machine hidden in a corner.
• Nothing showed that I should have won anything, but out came a few coins.
• I kept placing quarters, and never lost. 
• I filled up a large bucket, and I think won almost $500.  Mind you, casinos don't use coins anymore.
• I quickly left, but in my room thought, why don't I go back and win more?
• Went back.  Machine was gone.

• 
  There was a time when I played poker three times per week at 15 Craigside, each for two hours.  I probably ended up close to even, or a small total loss.  A great night is when you win more than $10, and a bad one will set you back $5.  Don't play much anymore.

Last month, Evan Gorelick in The New York Times had an article, You Can Bet on It.

• An app on your phone lets you gamble on the timing of U.S. military strikes, on the existence of aliens and on the return of Jesus Christ. (Will he make his second coming before midnight on Jan. 1, 2027? Online speculators think there’s a 4 percent chance.)

• 
  He says:
• Gambling is old--before Jesus Christ when Egyptians bet on senet, a religious board game.
• Thousands of years later, Romans bet on life-or-death gladiator fight and chariot races.

• 
  Of course there are casinos and home poker games, but online prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi allow you to bet on virtually anything.  Examples:

...real people are betting on whether President Trump will utter the words “six seven” this week. Others are gambling on whether the price of a Bitcoin will rise in the next five minutes.

• Take Franklin Caldwell II, an aerospace engineer.  He bets on something as personal as Evan Gorelick posts.

His latest obsession is Tweem, the platform that let him gamble on my post. “If I’m going to spend time viewing a tweet, I want to leave with something,” said Caldwell, 35, who added that he had “a passion for predictions.” Since creating his account around seven months ago, Caldwell has placed more than 25,000 bets — over 100 bets per day, on average.

• Gorelick says American culture creates gamblers, beginning at the age of 5.  Addiction is epidemic.
• 
  Mind you, Caldwell didn't bet real money.  
• For now Tweem deals only in digital points.
• No doubt, though, that this is only transition stage for the company.
• Next, perhaps crypto coins.
• Oh, Caldwell bet that this post would reach 378,000 views.  Never made it there.

Anything more about traditional betting?  Nah, I've had enough of them at this site.  Here is one of eight years ago when I compared Las Vegas and Macao:

• They both had about the same population in the 600,000s.

• 
  Macao had a gross gambling revenue in 2016 of $28 billion, with $11 billion for Vegas.
• Most popular game in Macao was baccarat, while Vegas had slots.
• Table minimums:  Macao $36, Vegas $3.
• No alcohol in Macao, but many casinos in Vegas allowed smoking and drinking.

I was wondering if anything had changed, and found a Casino.org article of earlier this year.

• Basically, the Pandemic hit both locations, hard.
• But Macau staged a comeback approaching pre-COVID days, Vegas had 2.6 million fewer visitors for the 12-month period ending in October of last year.
• Macao had 39 million visitors in 2025 (30 million in 2016....and 35 million in 2024).  Vegas had 43 million in 2016, 41.4 million in 2024 and only 38.5 million in 2025.
• Vegas is declining because of competition from other gaming markets, now including Florida, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts.  Gamblers don't need to travel so far these days in USA.

But Las Vegas is not alarmed.  It already has really great (and expensive) restaurants.  Remember those days when food was being given away and shows, too, were free?  BTS will be Vegas in May.  I talked to someone here at 15 Craigside who bought two tickets for a couple of hundred dollars, but learned that seats where they are located are scalped for a thousand dollars and more.  Plus, Vegas has become the global destination for major events.  In fact, when I'm there next week, I'll feature how major league sports have entered the picture, plus Formula 1 racing.

Otherwise, around the world:

• MGM Osaka will not open until 2030.  But:
• Is is coming up on Yumeshima Island, where the 2025 World Expo was held at a cost of $10 billion.
• 2500 rooms.
• First major casino in Japan.

• 
  Wynn Al Marjan Island in Ras Al Khaimah, United Arab Emirates comes in 2027.
• Over 1500 guests rooms
• First casino to lead the UAE into becoming the gaming destination for the Middle East.
• Don't leave the USA behind:  New York City has plans to authorize major resort casinos in Queens, the Bronx and around JFK Airport.

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