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ENERGY MATTERS

It's Wednesday, sci-tech day, so I'll this week draw from the American Energy Society information they send me.  No big surprise that petroleum companies are getting richer because of the Iran War.

But first a post-mortem of Ken Paxton's victory over John Cornyn in the Texas Republican primary.  

  • I thought Paxton would win by 10%.  Turns out that the margin was 28 percentage points, mostly because of President Donald Trump's endorsement.
  • Time magazine had a particularly convictive article, starting with:  For more than a year, Republicans beseeched President Donald Trump’s advisers in the White House with a simple ask: if he couldn’t find his way to endorsing Sen. John Cornyn, could he at least keep his mouth shut?  Further:
    • The point is that Cornyn would have beaten current Democratic Texas state representative James Talarico, who is 37 years old.  At minimal cost.
    • Now, the speculation is that the national Republican Party will need to spend $250 million to try to beat Talarico, at the expense of flipping Democratic seats in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire.
  • Not sure why the Republicans are so concerned.
    • To begin, the current betting odds favor Paxton, 56% to 44%.
    • Texas hasn't had a Democrat in the U.S. Senate for almost 40 years, the longest of any state in the union.
  • But Paxton is severely tainted.  According to Google AI:
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has faced a highly controversial reputation defined by years of extensive legal troubles, political polarization, and ethics investigations. His tenure has been marked by multiple high-profile legal controversies, including: [1, 2, 3]
  • Securities Fraud Indictments: He has been under federal indictment for felony securities fraud allegations that date back to 2015.
  • Impeachment Trial: In 2023, the Texas House of Representatives impeached Paxton on numerous articles, including bribery, misuse of public resources, and obstruction of justice. While he was ultimately acquitted by the state Senate, the proceedings highlighted severe allegations of corruption.
  • Whistleblower Settlement: Paxton’s office agreed to a massive payout to settle wrongful termination lawsuits with former top aides who reported his alleged abuse of office to the FBI.
  • Bar Lawsuit: The State Bar of Texas previously sued him for professional misconduct regarding his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election results. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Despite this controversial reputation, Paxton remains a significant force in conservative politics. His defenders view him as a steadfast defender of conservative ideals, while his critics cite his legal baggage as a significant threat to political integrity. You can read more about his official track record on the Texas Attorney General.
My sense is that Talarico can win, for the voting public has changed, and will continue to sway Democratic by election day in November.
Now on to my topic of the day from the American Energy Society.  Who are they?  From Google AI:

Energy Matters is the flagship weekly newsletter and news publication published by the American Energy Society (AES). It provides energy professionals with non-partisan soundbite summaries, trend-spotting maps, and direct access to original sources on climate-tech, fossil fuels, renewables, and global policy. [1, 2, 3]

  • Over half of the sugar produced in the US comes from sugar beets, a process that relies on anthracite coal to turn raw plant juice into pure crystals. This     high-grade coal is burned to create the lime and CO2 used to filter out impurities that would otherwise prevent the juice from crystallizing.  In other words, sugar needs coal.
  • First of all, added sugar is very bad for your body.
  • You can survive without eating added sugar.
  • Mind you, your body must have glucose to power it's cells, especially the brain.  
  • However, your body will create its own glucose from protein and fat through processes like gluconeogenesis, or by producing ketones for fuel.
  • Benefits of cutting out sugar:
    • Heart health.
    • Weight management.
    • Improved cognitive function, focus and memory.
    • Skin and dental health.
  • This, coming from a person who spent the first eight years of my work career in the Hawaii sugar industry.
  • Watch out for fructose.  According to Google AI:

Yes, in the context of processed diets, fructose is generally considered worse for your metabolic health than glucose. [1]
While glucose is the primary energy source for your body's cells and is easily processed throughout the body, fructose must be metabolized almost entirely by your liver. When you consume excessive amounts of added fructose, it can overwhelm the liver, leading to a higher risk of fatty liver disease, increased triglycerides, and insulin resistance. [1, 2, 3, 4]

  • Table sugar is sucrose, which is 50% fructose and 50% glucose.
  • A ripe banana is 3.5% fructose.
  • Honey is 37.5% fructose.
  • Agave (the cactus syrup to make tequila) is between 70% and 90% fructose.
  • An acre of solar panels produced 20-100 times more energy than an acre of corn.
  • Russia controls half of global uranium conversion.
  • Energy budgets.
  • I've been saying this for weeks:
 Whether the Strait of Hormuz is open remains unclear amid conflicting reports of a US blockade on Iranian ports. However, the International Maritime Organization reports a backlog of over 1,600 stalled vessels against a daily transit cap of 140.Even under a best-case scenario—clearing 40 "extra" ships per day—it will take 40 days to resolve the congestion; a more realistic 25-ship daily surplus pushes that recovery to 60 days. Ultimately, the Strait is the "single point of failure" for the global oil economy.

  • March 2026. The average temperature was 9.4°F above average, making it the most anomalous hot month in the historical record. It could be said that the hottest March was the hottest month in history.

  • The U.S. has reduced emissions.

  1. US emissions in 2024 stayed virtually the same as the previous year — up just 0.04%. 
  2. Net US emissions in 2024 were down 3.8% from 1990 levels. 
  3. Emissions in 2024 were nearly 19% below the US emissions peak year of 2005.

  • China is surging ahead in the sales of electric cars.
  • Here is a graphic showing how global energy use has increased.  Note the increase for solar and natural gas, and stabilization of oil and coal usage.
  • While solar has increased, the Sun only shines so many hours/day, and there are clouds sometimes.  Here is a comparison of an average day's load in megawatts of natural gas (60%) and solar (40%).
  • Quote from Billy Leung of Global X ETF: Markets have reached peak uncertainty.
  • A generation ago, Atlantic salmon ran through much of New England; today, they are in just three rivers in Maine.
  • There are many ways to compare market disruptions.

  • The Iran War returns, but this is because I'm taking excepts from several weeks of Energy Matters.  As I said earlier, I've been writing about the significance of Kharg Island for months.

There’s a lot of news about the US/Israel–Iran war, but the most consequential story is Kharg Island:

    • An Iranian island in the Persian Gulf ~25 km off the coast of Bushehr Province.
    • Stores nearly 30 million barrels of crude.
    • Terminals on the island handle 90% of Iran’s oil exports.
    • Home to Iran’s only deep-water ports capable of loading VLCCs.
    • Main export hub for Iranian oil flows to China.
    • Core source of national revenue.
    • Sanctions have left Iran without the capital, technology, or expertise to rebuild the terminal if destroyed—meaning a single successful strike could cripple its economy and disrupt global markets.
    • The US military faces a bind: Kharg is the Pentagon’s most critical strategic target; recent strikes have hit Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps assets on the Island, but damage to oil infrastructure risks global economic fallout.
    • The US may need to secure Kharg Island to maintain oil flows.
  • Two final quotes:
    • "If we successfully neutralize the Iranian threat, we're not just looking at a temporary price drop—we're looking at a massive unlocking of global energy potential." 
      - Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, speaking at a Pentagon briefing
    • “We’re very much in the $150 range but I don’t think it’s ridiculous at all to [suggest] $200. It would be very fair given we are basically having a crisis-a-day right now equivalent to supply outages.” 
      - Onyx Capital Group CEO Greg Newman

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