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DONALD TRUMP: Upcoming Wins and Losses

Donald Trump will win some and lose some.  He's had some important wins so far, most having do with the Republican presidential primaries, ownership of the Republican Party and affect on Congress.  My speculation of what will happen into the future. 

First, I predict that he will become the Republican presidential candidate.  A good win for him.  If, against current odds, he selects Nikki Haley as his vice-presidential running mate, another big win for him.

Let me start with the Supreme Court, and all the following are my guesses.

  • They will allow him to run for president, a win for Trump.
  • They will say, by not hearing the appeal court decision, or taking time to make a Supreme Court decision, that Trump is not immune from prosecution.  A huge loss for Trump.
  • But when will all that clarify?  Almost surely by this summer, and probably even very soon.
  • This will allow the DC trial involving Special Prosecutor Jack Smith / Judge Tanya Chutkan to proceed some time this summer.

About those trials, there are five of them, but I start with an important sixth, what is now happening live on the major new channels:

  • I've been watching the Georgia Fani Willis misconduct trial on MNBC.  I first tuned in several hours ago (but televising began for a period before I awoke), and there has not even been one commercial.  It is riveting, but I don't truly understand all the legalese.  From what little I know, I have no sense of where this will go, but to summarize:
    • In every way, she is "on trial" for her romance with Nathan Wade.
    • Only a judge with no jury, so he will solely determine the case.
  • A particularly telling bit of info was the statement from Robin Yeartie indicating that Willis was not telling the truth about her relationship with Wade.  Although a college friend and former employee of Willis',  Yeartie was let go, ending their relation a couple of years ago.  Disgruntled employee who the Trump team found?  Money involved?  If the judge believes her, Willis is doomed.
  • A worst case scenario for Willis is for Judge Scott McAfee to determine that she lied, which could move the Trump and his cronies trials to another jurisdiction.  This will delay proceedings, and perhaps even push everything into next year.  If Trump gets re-elected, he'll find a way to kill the proceedings.
    • A best case scenario is for Willis to be largely exonerated, meaning the Georgia case will proceed.
      • Trump and 18 others were charged in August of 2023 of scheming to illegally try to overturn his loss to Joe Biden in the 2020 election in Georgia.
      • Of course you've heard the recording of Trump pressuring Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.  If not, click on THIS.
      • So far, prosecutors have reached plea deals with several defendants, Chesebro and Powell in particular, and for relatively light sentences, promises were obtained for them to testify at the upcoming trials in Georgia for Trump and others.
      • All appeals to move the charges to a federal court have been rejected.
      • Future trials are scheduled to begin on 5August2024.
    • All in all, this was a definite win day for Donald Trump.
  • So the second trial, if Georgia is the first on Trump's agenda, is the New York civil lawsuit that will threaten his business empire.
    • NY AG Letitia James' lawsuit alleges Trump and his top executives conspired to pad his net worth by billions ($3.6 billion?) of dollars to secure deals and loans.  
    • State is seeking $370 million.
    • There is no jury.  Only Judge Arthur Engoran, who has been insulted too many times already by Trump.
    • Engoran will make his decision soon, and the penalty will most probably be in the range of the $370 million sought.
    • But Trump will appeal.
    • This will eventually become a financial loss to Trump.
    • When?  Timing not important.  A guilty judgement will be a loss for Trump.
  • Hush money had to do with payoff payments of $130,000 to porn star Stormy Daniels and $150,000 to Playboy model Karen McDougal.
    • Former lawyer Michael Cohen is in the middle of this, and will make life difficult for Trump, for he knows why this was done,
    • The charge is that Trump falsified business records, and could spend four years in jail.  
    • But the key point is that this occurred in the heat of his 2016 presidential race against Hillary Clinton, and that he committed state and federal campaign finance laws and tax fraud.
  • The Florida classified documents case also has Trump against Jack Smith.
    • But Judge Aileen Cannon is a Trump appointee, and her decisions so far reflect that she is a Trump supporter.  A plus for him.
    • This case is more a slap on the wrist, and Federal authorities will pursue it, but treat it as tertiary.  In a way they want to show that they are doing this with no politics involved.
    • The situation is that this so far is a win for Trump, and will continue for a while.
    • Should Cannon recuse.  No one is pressuring her, and the delays seem fine for now.
  • The Federal Election Case is the big one.  This is the 6January2021 incident that alleges Trump attempted a coup to retain his presidency even though he lost the election to Biden.
  • The House Special Committee has already documented much of what is to come.
  • Trump was first charged in August of 2023 by special counsel Jack Smith.
  • Four counts.
    • Obstruction of an official proceeding.
    • Conspiracy to obstruct official proceeding.
    • Conspiracy to defraud the U.S.
    • Conspiracy to prevent others from carrying out their constitutional rights.
    • The most serious charge carries up to 20 years behind bars.
  • Originally scheduled by U.S District Judge in DC Tanya Chutkan for March 4, but postponed, awaiting decision by the Supreme Court.
  • So far, Chutkan and the DC federal appeals court have rejected Trump's immunity claims.
  • Supreme Court actions will determine the fate of Trump, as described above.

The Genesis Invitational golf tournament began today at the Riviera Country Club, Pacific Palisades, California, and featured the return of 48-year old Tiger Woods.  Watch him birdie the first hole.  Remember, he has won 15 major tournaments, but has not officially played since the Hero World Challenge in December.  Alas, he had a 72 today at +1.  The odds of his winning this tournament is now +75000, or less than 1%.

I'll close with one bit of good news, the stock market.  The S&P500 rose 29 points to 5,030, breaking its prior all-time high set last week.  The Dow Jones gained 358 to 38,773, equalling the record set on January 22.  Japan, however, is faced with a shrinking economy and dropped behind Germany, now the third largest economy.

Country Ranking       GDP (billions)           GDP/Capita (thousands)

#1  USA                        $26,954                       $80.41
#2  China                     $17,786                        $12.54 
#3  Germany               $  4,430                       $52.82
#4  Japan                     $  4,231                        $33.95
#5  India                      $  3,730                       $  2.61

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