WAR WITH IRAN

Well, we are now at war with Iran.  Bad enough that there is ongoing turmoil still in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip, but this one is truly serious.  Donald Trump bragged that he would bring the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas Wars to an end within 24 hours of becoming president, and that there would be no new wars.  He needed Congressional approval to start this third one, and has, indeed become a dictator, or King.  I worry more about the future of the USA than anything else.

The New Yorker reported on Epic Fury, and here is a latest summary from NBC News.

• MAJOR JOINT ATTACK: The United States launched "major combat operations" in Iran, joined by Israel, President Donald Trump announced in a video message today.
• IRAN'S LEADERS TARGETED: Israel targeted Iranian political and military leaders, two U.S. officials told NBC News, while the U.S. aimed to take out Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs.
• TRUMP URGES REGIME CHANGE: Trump urged Iranians to “take over your government” when the strikes are over. “The hour of your freedom is at hand,” he said.
• DEATH TOLL: The Iranian Red Crescent said that more than 200 people have been killed and roughly 700 others have been injured following the attacks. 
• IRAN RETALIATION: Iran responded by firing missiles at Israel as well as at U.S. bases across the region in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan, sending ripples across the Middle East.
• TEHRAN WILLING TO TALK: In an exclusive interview with NBC News, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran was interested in de-escalation and willing to talk if the U.S. and Israel halted attacks. He told Trump that regime change was "mission impossible."
• NUCLEAR TALKS: The U.S. built up a massive military presence in the Middle East while holding talks with the Islamic Republic over a new deal to curtail its nuclear program. Araghchi told NBC News that the two sides were close to a deal, decrying the joint strikes while talks were ongoing.

Best to watch the news to keep up with the latest developments.

• Was 86-year old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei killed in the airstrikes today?  
• Yes, according to Israel.  Sure, he's dead from the USA.
• No say "official" Iranian sources.  
• But BBC's latest as I soon post indicates death, and that people in Iran celebrated this outcome.
• 
  Iran has two military branches.
• The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is the primary branch of Iran's armed forces, established after the 1979 Revolution.  They report directly too the Supreme Leader.  Is a U.S. designated foreign terrorist organization, for they are also involved with overseas operations.
• The Regular Army (Artesh), responsible for territorial defense and traditional military operations.  They also report to the Supreme Leader.
• This system prevents one branch of staging a coup.
• 
  Beginning last year, first a female uprising, then recently a student protest, have thrust the country into extreme instability.
• There is now essentially an internet blackout to minimize the opposition.
• A quick history of the current Iranian regime, from Google AI:

 Iran has transitioned from a Western-aligned monarchy to a theocratic Islamic Republic, marked by intense internal shifts and prolonged international isolation. 

The following timeline and thematic overview highlight the major developments in Iran’s history over the last four decades:

1. The Revolution & Consolidation (1979–1981)

• The Overthrow: In January 1979, the Shah fled Iran following massive protests. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini returned from exile in February, and by April, a national referendum officially established the Islamic Republic of Iran.

• 
  The Hostage Crisis: In November 1979, Iranian students stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, holding 52 Americans hostage for 444 days, which permanently severed U.S.-Iran diplomatic relations.
• Internal Purges: The new regime quickly consolidated power by purging secularists, liberals, and leftists who had originally joined the revolutionary coalition. 

2. War and Leadership Transition (1980–1989)

• Iran-Iraq War: Iraq invaded Iran in 1980, sparking an eight-year conflict that resulted in over one million deaths and devastated Iran's economy.
• Death of Khomeini: Upon Khomeini's death in 1989, Ali Khamenei was appointed Supreme Leader, a position he has held for over 35 years. 

3. The Struggle for Reform (1997–2009)

• Reformist Era: The 1997 election of President Mohammad Khatami signaled a push for "Dialogue Among Civilizations" and greater social freedoms, though many reforms were blocked by conservative clerics.
• The Green Movement: Following the disputed 2009 reelection of hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, millions of Iranians joined the "Green Movement" protests, which were met with a severe state crackdown. 

4. Nuclear Diplomacy & Economic Hardship (2013–2021) 

• Nuclear Deal (JCPOA): Under President Hassan Rouhani, Iran signed the 2015 nuclear agreement to limit its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.
• Sanctions Return: The U.S. withdrew from the deal in 2018, reimposing "maximum pressure" sanctions that led to triple-digit inflation and widespread economic distress.

5. Recent Crises and Social Unrest (2022–2026)

• "Woman, Life, Freedom": The 2022 death of Mahsa Amini in morality police custody ignited the largest anti-government protests in decades, led largely by women and youth challenging the compulsory hijab and the clerical system.
• 2025-2026 Tensions: Recent reports indicate a sharp escalation in conflict, including direct military strikes between Iran and Israel in mid-2025.
• Current State: As of early 2026, Iran remains in a period of extreme instability, characterized by mass demonstrations, an internet blackout, and significant state violence

I've formed an opinion about what might occur in the coming months.

• When I graduated from college with a BS degree in1962, I went to work for C. Brewer (oldest company in Hawaii), a power in the local industry.  Through its subsidiary, Hawaiian Agronomics Company, the company designed and operated a massive 25,000 acre sugarcane plantation and factory in southwest Iran for Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.  Colleagues who went on these assignments all came back speaking Farsi, with a thorough knowledge of the people and customs.  I was on a list to be among the next when I instead decided to go to graduate school.
• 
  I was working in the U.S. Senate in DC when the Iranian Revolution occurred in 1979.  I gained a particularly insider's viewpoint of what was happening in the country.  But that was 47 years ago.

• 
  About the present.
• Clearly, Israel and U.S. intelligence has been closely interacting with key organizations in Iran, and possibly, too, the regular army.  They must have established some system of communication beyond the internet, and maybe a capability of using Starlink, a roaming internet system.

• 
  The problem is that the Iranian opposition is leaderless and decentralized.
• Anyone of importance is already jailed or exiled.
• Reza Pahlavi, son of the former Shah, has gained traction as a symbolic leader for a democratic transition.

• 
  There, too, should be some Regime splintering if the Supreme Leader is dead, and combined with grassroots movements from labor unions and diverse social groups, perhaps a semblance of unity can be linked to all those intelligence connections towards a different kind of war. 
• This is not a typical war where one country invades the other.  The people of Iran, the country being invaded, will act like World War II in France, where the local populace helped the allies.
• However, this is too much optimism, and the likely path into the future will likely involve American boots on the ground and major U.S. casualties.
• Chances are high that the other Middle East Countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Jordan will side with the USA and Israel, or remain neutral.
• Iran has a weakened combination of Hezbollah (Lebanon), militias in Iraq and Houthis (Yemen) with them, which is not much.
• 
  NATO will side with the USA/Israel.
• Russia and China have expressed support for Iran, and if they can be kept out of this war, all the better.
• But Middle East Wars are largely unpredictable.
• Oil  prices could escalate from $65/barrel to more than $100/barrel.
• Travel to the Middle East.
• From Condé Nast:

Travelers with upcoming plans should monitor official government travel advice pages regularly, stay in contact with airlines for any schedule changes and allow extra flexibility in itineraries where possible. Comprehensive travel insurance that covers cancellations, delays and unforeseen disruptions is also advisable, particularly given the potential for sudden airspace closures or route adjustments. Staying informed and prepared—rather than alarmed—remains the most practical approach.

• 
  We were looking at a cruise from Doha, Qatar to Mauritius.  Certainly, no more.
• Then, too, what of Iran's threats in the USA?

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