EARTH AT RISK

The University of Hawaii Foundation now has an annual luncheon to honor its donors, and I happened to sit next to Chip Fletcher, dean of the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST).

Welcome by President Wendy Hensel.

Chip has effectively been dean of SOEST for now around a decade.  We talked about things in general, but in particular, he thought that I would find interest in a paper he published with others.  On 2April2024 he was lead author of an epic paper published in PNAS Nexus:

Earth at risk: An urgent call to end the age of destruction and forge a just and sustainable future 

Their PNAS Nexus article is a gold open access (meaning freely available to the general public) contribution published by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, in partnership with Oxford University Press.  I of course read the paper, but as I am a colleague of his, asked an independent Google AI to tell me what it could about this publication:

Charles Fletcher, from the University of Hawaiʻi, authored the 2024 paper "Earth at risk: An urgent call to end the age of destruction and build a sustainable future," published in PNAS Nexus. The paper argues that the planet is in a state of crisis due to human-driven environmental degradation, calling for an immediate, systemic transition away from fossil fuels, unsustainable consumption, and ecological destruction to avert existential risks. 

Key Aspects of Charles Fletcher's "Earth at Risk"

• Core Argument: The current economic and social model is unsustainable, leading to the destruction of the biosphere, which in turn places humanity at risk.
• Urgency: The paper emphasizes that we are running out of time to prevent irreversible tipping points in the Earth system.
• Recommendations: It calls for a rapid transition to renewable energy, adoption of circular economies, and a fundamental shift in values to prioritize ecological stability over infinite economic growth.
• Context: It is part of a broader, established body of literature regarding environmental risk management (e.g., previous work on ecological, economic, and social risk assessment). 

Contextualizing AI and Environmental Risks

While Fletcher’s work focuses on ecological destruction, it fits into the broader, urgent discussion about "world at risk," which often includes the accelerating, sometimes chaotic development of AI technologies. 

• Environmental Impact of AI: AI systems require vast amounts of energy and water for data centers, potentially conflicting with the sustainability goals highlighted by Fletcher.
• Risks vs. Benefits: While some perspectives emphasize AI's role in monitoring or solving environmental issues, others highlight the risks of "hallucinations" and the uncontrolled acceleration of societal change. 

Note: The results indicate the paper by Charles Fletcher addresses environmental/earth risk, while other, separate sources (e.g., in the search results) discuss AI risks (like misinformation or energy consumption). 

About Chip, from Google AI:

Charles “Chip” Fletcher, Ph.D., is a prominent climate scientist at the 

University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa (UH) and Interim Dean of the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST). He is crucial to Hawaii for leading research on sea-level rise, coastal erosion, and climate resilience, directly informing state and county policies on hazard mitigation. 

Key Aspects of His Importance in Hawaii:

• Climate & Sea-Level Rise Research: Fletcher leads a team that models complex climate impacts, including coastal flooding and groundwater table rise, essential for predicting future threats to infrastructure.
• Leadership & Advocacy: He is the Chairperson of the Honolulu Climate Change Commission and a Special Advisor for Climate and Resilience to Governor Josh Green.
• Expertise: He has published over 100 peer-reviewed papers and holds positions that bridge scientific research with public policy and community resilience efforts across Hawaii and the Pacific.
• Awards: He has received multiple awards for his community service and scientific contributions, including the EPA Environmental Achievement Award in Climate Change Science and a Lifetime Achievement Award from the Surfrider Foundation. 

Fletcher focuses on developing strategies for sustainable development, promoting awareness, and advocating for "managed retreat" from vulnerable coastlines. 

Google AI is out of date on one detail:  Fletcher is not interim, but now full-time dean of SOEST.

The fact that the National Academy of Sciences chose to make this paper openly accessible to the world is indicative of how important it feels for this manuscript to be widely read.  One other reason is the gathered eminence of  Fletcher's seventeen co-authors:  

Charles Fletcher , 

William J Ripple , 

Thomas Newsome , 

Phoebe Barnard , 

Kamanamaikalani Beamer , 

Aishwarya Behl , 

Jay Bowen , 

Michael Cooney , 

Eileen Crist , 

Christopher Field 

, 

Krista Hiser , 

David M Karl , 

David A King , 

Michael E Mann , 

Davianna P McGregor , 

Camilo Mora , 

Naomi Oreskes , 

Michael Wilson.

• 1School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA.
• 2Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA.
• 3School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia.
• 4Center for Environmental Politics and School of Interdisciplinary Arts and Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
• 5African Climate and Development Initiative and FitzPatrick Institute, University of Cape Town, Cape Town 7700, South Africa.
• 6Hui 'Āina Momona Program, Richardson School of Law, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA.
• 7Hawai'inuiākea School of Hawaiian Knowledge, Kamakakūokalani Center for Hawaiian Studies, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA.
• 8Institute of American Indian Arts, Santa Fe, NM 87508, USA.
• 9Upper Skagit Tribe, Sedro Woolley, WA 98284, USA.
• 10School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, Hawai'i Natural Energy Institute, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA.
• 11Department of Science Technology and Society, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24060, USA.
• 12Doerr School for Sustainability, Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
• 13Department of Languages, Linguistics, and Literature, Kapi'olani Community College, Honolulu, HI 96816, USA.
• 14Global Council for Science and the Environment, Washington, DC 20006, USA.
• 15Department of Oceanography, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA.
• 16Daniel K. Inouye Center for Microbial Oceanography, Research and Education, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA.
• 17Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1DQ, UK.
• 18Department of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA.
• 19Department of Ethnic Studies, Center for Oral History, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA.
• 20Department of Geography and Environment, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA.
• 21Department of the History of Science, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.
• 22Associate Justice, Hawaii Supreme Court (retired), Honolulu, HI 96813, USA.

What will be the impact of this paper?  Well, we are today confronted by a White House Administration that is anti-environment.  Here is what Google AI indicated about Earth at Risk:

The Trump administration would likely dismiss a PNAS Nexus paper on environmental "Earth at Risk" as alarmist, biased, or "fake science," continuing its history of disregarding climate findings to prioritize economic growth and fossil fuel production. The administration has previously worked to rescind scientific reports linking greenhouse gases to environmental risks, often characterizing such studies as political rather than objective. For further context on the administration's environmental actions, visit The New York Times.

What do I think of Earth At Risk?  Most definitely a monumental paper written by a plethora of experts in this field.  I have a particular appreciation because I also have some background in this field, and certainly support their contentions. 

• Early on when I worked for the U.S. Senate from 1979 to 1982, I served in the office of Senator Spark Matsunaga, who was a prominent activist for renewable energy and an advocate for improving the environment.  I was the Senate staff lead for Wind Energy legislation and drafted the original Hydrogen and Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion bills, which became law.
• Global warming in those days was not a significant concern.  However, the prospects worried me, and I got to know Professor David Rose from MIT who was an early warner of global warming.  When he retired, he moved to Hawaii, and unfortunately passed away in 1985 at the age of 63.  He had a lot more to contribute.
• I then interacted with Professor James Hansen of Columbia University in the 1980's, meeting with him twice and interacting occasionally.  
• He is still active and I remain on his mailing list today.  
• Hansen was the first authority in the field to testify before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources un 1988, where Matsunaga was a member, that the greenhouse effect had been detected, indicating that human-caused climate change was already altering the climate.
• As an engineer, my interest was more along the lines of what can we do to prevent global warming.  
• I organized an international group to develop a proposal to seek engineering solutions on what can be done to ameliorate global warming if this effect indeed was serious.
• But there was a consensus in those days that there was not enough science yet to even consider solutions.
• We were advised by a close friend, Bob Correl, to wait until the scientists confirmed that something serious was happening.  Correl, in those early days of the late 1980s, was with the National Science Foundation, and coordinated the formation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 
• I couldn't convince him that, perhaps, say, 10% of all funding should be applied to develop potential engineering strategies to remediate global warming.  Not to do anything tampering with the environment, but merely have options available if necessary.
• Well, it took forever for the IPCC just to get it's message out.
• Mind you, I too am concerned that geoengineering solutions need to be carefully developed before anything foolhardy happens.  
• I eventually retired without accomplishing much, and published an article 15 years ago in the Huffington Post, Geoengineering of Climate Change.
• During that period I also wrote the following essays on this subject:
• The Carbon Dioxide Credit Program
• Simple Solutions to Energy and Global Warming
• In those days I dabbled with the notion that methane was also a  dangerous greenhouse gas.
• The Venus Syndrome (Part One)
• The Venus Syndrome (Part Two)

So is Earth at Risk?  Yes.  The Doomsday Clock was set at 85 seconds to midnight last month, the closest it has ever been to global catastrophe, and one primary driver is climate change, with nuclear war risks and the unregulated rise of artificial intelligence also major concerns.

About the 2026 Winter Olympics, the USA did better today.  Medals count.

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