TRUMP INDICTED, PLEADS INNOCENT, RELEASED....and the World Turns

Well, the day finally came, for former president Donald Trump was arraigned in a Florida court, indicted, electronically fingerprinted, plead not guilty to everything, released, should get $2 million at a fundraiser and will give a speech tonight at 8:45PM EDT from his Trump National Golf Club in New Jersey.  On what, who really knows.  But his judge has not limited what he can say.

You can read the details here.  Some might want to watch the analyses on MSNBC with Rachel Maddow and her cohorts at 8PM EDT.

Here is my take:

• The court cases are getting more and more serious for Trump.  Sure, "stealing" 15 boxes of more than 300 (325, actually) confidential files and 11,000 records from his office when he left the presidency was a concern.  Worse was his effort to defy the government which tried to get those papers back.  This was nothing like Biden and Pence embarrassingly returning mostly trivial information they mistakenly took.
• If Trump had acted similarly, today would not have happened.
• But he was arrested, and the expected crowds did not materialize, the process proceeded smoothly and quickly, and he awaits trial.
• When?  Probably this fall.  
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  Why is this not occurring in DC?  
• There is a grand jury in DC that has met on this matter.
• But the Department of Justice thought it would be quicker to take care of the matter in Florida, where the crime occurred.
• Read a pretty thorough Forbes article about the pros and cons.
• 
  Clearly, Trump is lucky for this Florida venue because it just so turned out that the selected judge, Aileen Cannon, was his appointee, and she already got reprimanded for siding with him in an earlier phase of this case.   She will determine who gets to join the jury.

• 
  Don't know whether this is part of the strategy or not, but you need ALL 12 jurors to say guilty.  One Trump vote, and this becomes a hung jury.  What is a hung jury?  This is not a decision, so he won't be given the opportunity of a double jeopardy release.  The Department of Justice can try him again with a new judge and jury.  I suspect this is what will happen, leading to a second trial some time next year.

Will this then become a Trump victory?  He will get a lot more campaign funding and no doubt will continue to be the leading Republican candidate next year.

However, this surely must be part of the Democratic strategy to gain a landslide victory on 5 November 2024.  They want a viable Trump to continue to drive the Republican bus over the proverbial cliff.  As you can imagine over the next year and a half, a loud Trump will cause turmoil and dissension within the party.

There are today more Republicans than Democrats:

But that adds up to only 81%.  The remaining 19% are uncommitted.  Actually, today there are more Independents than Republicans or Democrats.  The latest Gallup Poll of last month showed there are 30% Republicans, 27% Democrats and 41% Independents.  Independents were 49% only in March of this year, and was 35% in March of 2021.

Axios has another poll that says 49% Independents, 25% Republicans and 25% Democrats.  In other words, Democrats would not have any advantage, and more a disadvantage, if left to party affiliation.  They need to influence Independents.  If they can make Trump so abhorrent, detestable, repulsive....you can come up with a lot more...this has to be their strategy.  For this approach to work, they absolutely need Trump uncontrolled and powerful enough to continue to be the favorite party candidate.

Those New York City and Florida trials are, actually, peanuts.  The two more influential cases are still pending.  Georgia will come first, and here, Trump was recorded to ask Brad Raffensperger to cheat.  If you want to hear the full detail on that one-hour call, click on this.  That trial will be damning for Trump, and indictment should come around the end of this summer.  Notice that Democrats want to extend the action into next year.

The really big one will be when Attorney General Merrick Garland personally charges Donald Trump for attempting to overthrow the government on 6 January 2021.  Here our Democracy is at stake, and lower down the chain, nearly 1000 rioters have been charged, with perhaps another 1000 still to come, and 350 or so have already been judged guilty, with 58 in jail.  One person so far has been acquitted and a few cases were dismissed.

You would think that all these current and upcoming court cases will mostly sway those 49% of Independents toward Democratic candidates.  That is the strategy of the Democratic Party, I think.  And by the way, this is the grammatically correct way to identify them, not Democrat Party.

A further reinforcing of strategy would be to find a way for Veep Kamala Harris to be given the Attorney General position in the next term, for Merrick Garland will be 71 years old by that time, and might well be somewhat tainted by all those above judiciary movements.  Michelle Obama should be groomed to become the next running mate for Joe Biden.  The Hill earlier this year indicated that the former First Lady gives Democrats their best chance at retaining the White House.  So if Biden chooses to run, she would be the best insurance to strengthen the ticket.

In the sports world, the Denver Nuggets beat the Miami Heat for the NBA Championship last night, the  Vegas Golden Knights should tonight beginning at 8PM EDT at home beat the Florida Panthers for the Stanley Cup and the 123rd U.S. Open will tee off on Thursday.  A one-day ticket costs $155.50.  And, by the way, not everyone can win.  To begin the process of competing, a male or female golfer needs to have a 1.4 handicap or lower.  Matt Fitzpatrick on England won $3.15 million last year.

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