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HOW DONALD TRUMP CAN AVOID GOING TO JAIL

Yesterday I featured New York Times reporters about the danger of Donald Trump.  They send me a daily summary, and this morning Astead Herndon suggested something that adds to his story:

  • When Donald Trump was indicted on criminal charges in New York City two months ago, I tried to make sense of the political fallout with my colleague Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst. After poring over traditional markers about fund-raising and poll numbers, Nate mentioned another standard I’ve been thinking about over the past few days: Do Trump’s legal challenges make him more (or less) fun?

  • The question is awkward, as it suggests that the reasons some Americans are drawn to politicians are divorced from the seriousness of their office. But after Trump’s arraignment in federal court in Miami this week, I’m reminded of its importance. Nate wasn’t calling Trump fun as a self-evident fact, but rather identifying a set of voters who are attracted to showmanship and celebrity, are distinct from Trump’s base and follow politics only casually, if at all.

  • These voters matter for Trump’s 2024 campaign. Five percent of Trump’s voters in 2016 were disengaged from politics, a study by Democracy Fund, a pro-democracy group, found, and that is the type of margin that made a difference in such a close contest.

Astead goes further to say:

  • Perhaps most important, Trump himself looks miserable. Even as Republican voters have largely rallied behind him, and even as he remains the front-runner to secure the Republican nomination despite his cascading legal problems, he appears to be wrestling with the reality that his freedom is in jeopardy.

So anyway, this led me to ponder, with all the upcoming and more serious court challenges facing him, what are his options for avoiding jail?  Clearly, he either has to get elected in 2024 or work out a deal with another Republican to pardon him for his supporters.  While the current confidential papers case can be plea bargained to prevent him from incarceration, and any actual jury trial will probably get hung, which would be a nice delay until the next trial, eventually he will be judged guilty.

  • His private jet, a Boeing 757, only has a range of 3900 miles, and the distance from Miami to Moscow is 5727 miles.  Perhaps, though, he can arrange for a refueling stop.
  • On 14December 2020, after he had lost to Biden, Maclean's summarized:
    • Although it is difficult to conceive of the leader of the free world joining the ranks of the various aging Nazis, ousted despots, retired mobsters and deadbeat ex-husbands currently circling the globe in search of a hideout, once presidential immunity is lost it is hard to see what alternative he would have. The president has given us one hint, so subtle as to be nearly imperceptible, that he may have to leave the country: at a recent political rally, he said, “Maybe I’ll have to leave the country.”
    • Where?  They came up with a points system:
      • #1, 41 out of 41 points, United Arab Emirates, which has no extradition treaty with the U.S.  Just before he left office, signed a multi-billion-dollar weapons deal with them.  They abhor democracy and now lean in the Russian direction regarding world politics.  He owns a golf course there and will love Dubai.  With a passport or not, he can just escape in his plane.  It is 7824 miles from Miami, so he would need at least one stop for refueling.
      • #2 Russia with 38.5.  Have you been to Russia?  I have.  I wouldn't want to live there.
      • #3, Saudi Arabia, 35.5.  They have 10 golf courses and will build another dozen or so.
      • #4, Macau, 30, which is a haven for tax dodgers and a hiding spot for fugitives.  A little touchy, considering his past insults regularly taunting China, which owns Macao.
      • #5, Montenegro, 26, a European country without an extradition treaty, but has no golf course.  40% of residents admire Putin.
      • #5, a bunch of churches, if any actually deigns to accept him.
      • #7, France, 15, is not so insistent on honoring an extradition treaty--for example, Roman Polanski lives there--they have good food, is lax on rape and has golf courses.
      • #8, 10, Andorra, has no extradition with the U.S., but Trump will get totally bored.
      • #8, 10, Scotland, also low because they tend to honor extradition, especially with the USA, but he does own two golf courses there.  Plus 12 in the U.S., one in Ireland and one in the UAE.

When would he escape?  He can probably afford to wait a while, for our judicial system will not move quickly.  He, further, cannot trust that Republican Supreme Court to save him.  They are conservative and religious, but almost anti-Trump.  They voted against his request to prevent the release of White House records sought by Democrats investigating the January 6, 2020 riot.

Plus, Democrats want him as noisy as possible as a free man to keep screwing up the Republican Party.  If a Democrat will obviously be selected the next president on 5November2024, best for him to escape that night, for the January 6 trial will almost for sure toss him into jail.  With the Democratic Party controlling the Department of Justice for four more years, yikes, get out.

I find this number unbelievable, but Wikipedia indicated:

No one in the world of business – not Bill Gates, Steve Jobs or Warren Buffett – has been as famous as Trump for as long." Almost one year after his inauguration as president, The Guardian noted that more than 4,500 English-language books about Trump had been published since he took office, compared to just over 800 works about Trump's predecessor Barack Obama during his first year in office.[2] 

 

If you wanted to watch the U.S. Open and could not find the station for the early part of the competition, that is because it was on the USA Network from 1PM to 8PM  EDT.  In Spectrum Honolulu, channel 1555 or 555.  Then at 8PM EDT the regular NBC station took over, until 11PM.

  • Same schedule tomorrow 
  • Then for the weekend, your normal NBC station, 1PM to 11PM on Saturday, and 1PM to 10PM on Sunday.  
  • This the first major golf tournament in Los Angeles since 1995, and first U.S. Open in 75 years.  
  • 156 players are competing to fill 67 slots this weekend.  
  • There are 20 amateurs. 
  • Scotty Scheffler is favored, with Jon Rahm picked for second. 
  • First round play still ongoing, but Rickie Fowler and Xander Schauffele shot 62 to lead at -8.  Scheffler ended at -3 and John Rahm -1.  Justin Rose +6.
  • Winner will get $3.6 million.

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