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THE DEBATE TO DECIDE ON THE FUTURE OF DEMOCRACY IN THE USA

The Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris debate has become a must watch event tonight.

  • Tuesday, September 10, 9PM EDT (3PM in Hawaii).
  • Will be covered on most TV news channels. 
Not much more I can add at this point, except to underscore that the future of Democracy in the USA is at stake.  Well, I can take a tangent, and while political betting is illegal in the U.S., there are ways, and propositions can be found here and there.  For example, USA Today cites Polymarket, a crypo-trading platform:
  • There is an 89% chance Trump will say Israel.
    • border at least 15 times, 67%
    • alien at least 5 times, 19%
    • MAGA at least 3 times, 30%
    • Elon Musk, 35%
    • Epstein 5%
  • 91% chance that Harris will say abortion.
    • border at least 5 times, 72%
    • not going back, 64%
    • liar, 34%
    • Project 2025, 85%
    • democracy, 86%
  • Trump and Harris will shake hands = 27%
    • I predict Trump will find a way to walk up to Harris and attempt to shake her hand, just to show that he is almost a foot taller:  Trump 6'3" and Harris 5'4".
    • He did so with Hillary Clinton, who is, perhaps, half an inch taller than Harris.
  • Trump will increase share of Black voters in 2024 = 72%
    • He got 8% of the Black vote (from exit polls) in 2012.
    • Went up to 12% in 2020.
    • Predicted to increase this number to 17% on November 5.
    • Blacks are 77% Democrats.
    • This article was written before Biden dropped out.
    • You would think that Harris being half-black would turn this number around.  But...
  • Trump will win the presidency = 54%
  • Republicans will gain the majority in the Senate = 76%
  • Democrats will gain the majority in the House = 62%
Polymarket has received more than $847 million in bets on who will win the presidency.  So far?  52% for Trump and 46% for Harris.  Trump looks good on Polymarket swing states:
  • Arizona:  Trump 63%  Harris  37%
  • Georgia:  Trump 60%  Harris 40%
  • Pennsylvania:  56%  Harris 44%
  • Nevada:  Trump 54%  Harris  46%
  • Michigan:  Harris 56%  Trump 44%
  • Wisconsin:  Harris 56%  Trump 44%

Who or what is Polymarket?

  • A decentralized prediction market platform that allows users to place bets on world events by using cryptocurrency.
  • Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan when he was only 22-years old.
  • Was fined $1.4 million in January 2022 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
  • In May 2024, Polymarket appointed J. Christopher Giancarlo, a for CFTC commissioner, to become chairman of its advisory board, and in that month announced that it has raised $70 billion across two rounds of funding.  Peter Theil is prominent, and Nate Silver, founder of polling analysis firm FiveThirtyEight, is also now an advisor to Polymarket.
  • Polymarket has become popular for providing betting opportunities for the Titan submersible and the likelihood that Russia would use nuclear force.

In the Gulf of Mexico is Tropical Storm Francine, to become a hurricane as you read this posting.  Should make landfall over Louisiana, with the eye passing sufficiently west of New Orleans to not cause much harm to the city.  However, the dangerous northeast quadrant could pose a problem if the track moves just a little east.


In the Western Pacific is Tropical Storm Bebinca, predicted to attain typhoon strength on Friday, cross over the Okinawan islands, then head for Shanghai as a Category 2.

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