THE DEBATE TO DECIDE ON THE FUTURE OF DEMOCRACY IN THE USA

The Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris debate has become a must watch event tonight.

Tuesday, September 10, 9PM EDT (3PM in Hawaii).
Will be covered on most TV news channels.

Not much more I can add at this point, except to underscore that the future of Democracy in the USA is at stake. Well, I can take a tangent, and while political betting is illegal in the U.S., there are ways, and propositions can be found here and there. For example, USA Today cites Polymarket, a crypo-trading platform:

There is an 89% chance Trump will say Israel.

border at least 15 times, 67%
alien at least 5 times, 19%
MAGA at least 3 times, 30%
Elon Musk, 35%
Epstein 5%

91% chance that Harris will say abortion.

border at least 5 times, 72%
not going back, 64%
liar, 34%
Project 2025, 85%
democracy, 86%

Trump and Harris will shake hands = 27%

I predict Trump will find a way to walk up to Harris and attempt to shake her hand, just to show that he is almost a foot taller: Trump 6'3" and Harris 5'4".
He did so with Hillary Clinton, who is, perhaps, half an inch taller than Harris.

Trump will increase share of Black voters in 2024 = 72%

He got 8% of the Black vote (from exit polls) in 2012.
Went up to 12% in 2020.
Predicted to increase this number to 17% on November 5.
Blacks are 77% Democrats.
This article was written before Biden dropped out.
You would think that Harris being half-black would turn this number around. But...

Trump will win the presidency = 54%
Republicans will gain the majority in the Senate = 76%
Democrats will gain the majority in the House = 62%

Polymarket has received more than $847 million in bets on who will win the presidency. So far? 52% for Trump and 46% for Harris. Trump looks good on Polymarket swing states:

Arizona: Trump 63% Harris 37%
Georgia: Trump 60% Harris 40%
Pennsylvania: 56% Harris 44%
Nevada: Trump 54% Harris 46%
Michigan: Harris 56% Trump 44%
Wisconsin: Harris 56% Trump 44%

Who or what is Polymarket?

A decentralized prediction market platform that allows users to place bets on world events by using cryptocurrency.

Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan when he was only 22-years old.
Was fined $1.4 million in January 2022 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

In May 2024, Polymarket appointed J. Christopher Giancarlo, a for CFTC commissioner, to become chairman of its advisory board, and in that month announced that it has raised $70 billion across two rounds of funding. Peter Theil is prominent, and Nate Silver, founder of polling analysis firm FiveThirtyEight, is also now an advisor to Polymarket.

Polymarket has become popular for providing betting opportunities for the Titan submersible and the likelihood that Russia would use nuclear force.

In the Gulf of Mexico is Tropical Storm Francine, to become a hurricane as you read this posting. Should make landfall over Louisiana, with the eye passing sufficiently west of New Orleans to not cause much harm to the city. However, the dangerous northeast quadrant could pose a problem if the track moves just a little east.

In the Western Pacific is Tropical Storm Bebinca, predicted to attain typhoon strength on Friday, cross over the Okinawan islands, then head for Shanghai as a Category 2.

A NEXT COVID SUBVARIANT?

By now most know that the Omicron BA.5 subvariant has become the dominant infectious agent, now accounting for more than 80% of all COVID-19 cases. Very few are aware that a new one, BA.4.6, is sneaking in and steadily rising, now accounting for 13% of sequenced samples . However, as BA.4.6 has emerged from BA.4, while there is uncertainty, the scientific sense is that the latest bivalent booster targeting BA.4 and BA.5 should also be effective for this next threat. One concern is that Evusheld--the only monoclonal antibody authorized for COVID prevention in immunocompromised individuals--is not effective against BA.4.6. Here is a reference as to what this means. A series of two injections is involved. Evusheld was developed by British-Swedish company AstraZeneca, and is a t ixagevimab co-packaged with cilgavimab . More recently, Los Angeles County reported on subvariant BA.2.75.2 . which Tony Fauci termed suspicious and troublesome. This strain has also been spreading in

Part 3: OUR NEXT AROUND THE WORLD ODYSSEY

Before I get into my third, and final, part of this cruise series, let me start with some more newsworthy topics. Thursday was my pandemic day for years. Thus, every so often I return to bring you up to date on the latest developments. All these subvariants derived from that Omicron variant, and each quickly became dominant, with slightly different symptoms. One of these will shock you. There has been a significant decline in the lost of taste and smell. From two-thirds of early patients to now only 10-20% show these symptoms. JN.1, now the dominant subvariant, results in mostly mild symptoms. However, once JN.1 infects some, there seem to be longer-lasting symptoms. Clearly, the latest booster helps prevent contracting Covid. A competing subvariant, BA.2.86, also known as Pirola , a month ago made a run, but JN.1 prevailed. No variant in particular, but research has shown that some of you will begin to lose hair for several months. This is caused by stress more than anythi

HONOLULU TO SEATTLE

The story of the day is Hurricane Milton, now a Category 4 at 145 MPH, with a track that has moved further south and the eye projected to make landfall just south of Sarasota. Good news for Tampa, which is 73 miles north. Milton will crash into Florida as a Category 4, and is huge, so a lot of problems can still be expected in Tampa Bay with storm surge. If the eye had crossed into the state just north of Tampa, the damage would have been catastrophic. Milton is a fast-moving storm, currently at 17 MPH, so as bad as the rainfall will be over Florida, again, a blessing. The eye will make landfall around 10PM EDT today, and will move into the Atlantic Ocean north of Palm Bay Thursday morning. My first trip to Seattle was in June of 1962 just after I graduated from Stanford University. Caught a bus. Was called the Century 21 Exposition . Also the Seattle World's Fair. 10 million joined me on a six-month run. My first. These are held every five years, and there have only been

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