Skip to main content

THE DEBATE TO DECIDE ON THE FUTURE OF DEMOCRACY IN THE USA

The Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris debate has become a must watch event tonight.

  • Tuesday, September 10, 9PM EDT (3PM in Hawaii).
  • Will be covered on most TV news channels. 
Not much more I can add at this point, except to underscore that the future of Democracy in the USA is at stake.  Well, I can take a tangent, and while political betting is illegal in the U.S., there are ways, and propositions can be found here and there.  For example, USA Today cites Polymarket, a crypo-trading platform:
  • There is an 89% chance Trump will say Israel.
    • border at least 15 times, 67%
    • alien at least 5 times, 19%
    • MAGA at least 3 times, 30%
    • Elon Musk, 35%
    • Epstein 5%
  • 91% chance that Harris will say abortion.
    • border at least 5 times, 72%
    • not going back, 64%
    • liar, 34%
    • Project 2025, 85%
    • democracy, 86%
  • Trump and Harris will shake hands = 27%
    • I predict Trump will find a way to walk up to Harris and attempt to shake her hand, just to show that he is almost a foot taller:  Trump 6'3" and Harris 5'4".
    • He did so with Hillary Clinton, who is, perhaps, half an inch taller than Harris.
  • Trump will increase share of Black voters in 2024 = 72%
    • He got 8% of the Black vote (from exit polls) in 2012.
    • Went up to 12% in 2020.
    • Predicted to increase this number to 17% on November 5.
    • Blacks are 77% Democrats.
    • This article was written before Biden dropped out.
    • You would think that Harris being half-black would turn this number around.  But...
  • Trump will win the presidency = 54%
  • Republicans will gain the majority in the Senate = 76%
  • Democrats will gain the majority in the House = 62%
Polymarket has received more than $847 million in bets on who will win the presidency.  So far?  52% for Trump and 46% for Harris.  Trump looks good on Polymarket swing states:
  • Arizona:  Trump 63%  Harris  37%
  • Georgia:  Trump 60%  Harris 40%
  • Pennsylvania:  56%  Harris 44%
  • Nevada:  Trump 54%  Harris  46%
  • Michigan:  Harris 56%  Trump 44%
  • Wisconsin:  Harris 56%  Trump 44%

Who or what is Polymarket?

  • A decentralized prediction market platform that allows users to place bets on world events by using cryptocurrency.
  • Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan when he was only 22-years old.
  • Was fined $1.4 million in January 2022 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
  • In May 2024, Polymarket appointed J. Christopher Giancarlo, a for CFTC commissioner, to become chairman of its advisory board, and in that month announced that it has raised $70 billion across two rounds of funding.  Peter Theil is prominent, and Nate Silver, founder of polling analysis firm FiveThirtyEight, is also now an advisor to Polymarket.
  • Polymarket has become popular for providing betting opportunities for the Titan submersible and the likelihood that Russia would use nuclear force.

In the Gulf of Mexico is Tropical Storm Francine, to become a hurricane as you read this posting.  Should make landfall over Louisiana, with the eye passing sufficiently west of New Orleans to not cause much harm to the city.  However, the dangerous northeast quadrant could pose a problem if the track moves just a little east.


In the Western Pacific is Tropical Storm Bebinca, predicted to attain typhoon strength on Friday, cross over the Okinawan islands, then head for Shanghai as a Category 2.

- 

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

THE ENIGMATIC PHIL SPECTOR

The first presidential debate of Donald Trump and Joe Biden ended up in a near tie.  Both lost.  However, it was an unmitigated disaster for Biden, who just might be too old to win this re-election. For Trump, it was a reinforcement of what he does all the the time, lie.   There will be significant calls for the Democratic Party to work out "something" to replace Biden as their presidential candidate.  Suddenly, Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom and Michelle Obama are added to the spotlight.  But what can "legally" occur at the August Democratic Convention? The situation is different on the Republican side, as Trump is the Republican Party, and no matter if he gets 4 years at his felony sentencing on July 9, or even if the Supreme Court determines he is not immune next week or later, he will be the presidential candidate. Trump is a damned boastful liar and convicted felon, but that is the only option for Republicans.  His vice-presidential choice now become...

THE TRUMP ENERGY PROGRAM

From  Time  magazine, I begin with a slew of Trump topics.  You can read the details. The unpopular Big Beautiful Bill is now in the House . The only truly effective anti-Trump person:  Elon Musk. The Trump Gaza ceasefire proposal . The July 4th Free American Anti-Trump Protest planned across the USA . This site began as a renewable energy and environment blog, and has evolved to just about any subject.  I try to keep Wednesdays for sci-tech, with perhaps a monthly focus on energy.  More recently, I've drawn from the  Energy Matters  info sent to me by the American Energy Society.  I'm inserting direct quotes this time to eliminate my predilections for more credibility. This service starts with some broad topics. - Fossil fuels: Helium is locked in a supply crunch, and prices are surging. - Renewables: Congress will probably pass new renewable fuel standards for 2026 and 2027. - Policy: President Trump is now focused on Califor...

OSAKA EXPO: Day One

Well, the day finally came for us to go to the Osaka Expo.  We were told ahead of time that the long walks would be fearful, giant lines will need to be tolerated just to get into the Expo, with those ocean breezes, it would really be cold, and so forth. Maybe it was pure luck, but we avoided all the above warnings  We had a grand day, and are looking forward to Sunday, our second day at the Expo.  So come along for an enjoyable ride. Our hotel is adjacent to the Tennoji Station, a very large one with several lines.  We upgraded our Suica card and caught the Misosuji red line towards Umeda. Transferred to the Chuo green line at the Hommachi Station.  This Osaka Metro train took us to the Yumeshima Station at the Expo site.   It was a very large mob leaving the train and heading to the entrance. Took only a few minutes to get to the entrance.  This mob was multiplied by at least a factor of  ten of those already waiting to enter.  However...