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KAMALA HARRIS WILL PREVAIL OVER DONALD TRUMP ON NOVEMBER 5

Two days ago I reported on the Birmingham, Alabama shooting that left 4 people dead and 17 injured.  As of today, no suspects.  Most probably a gang-related event.  100 shell casings were found.  $100,000 reward for tips that lead to an arrest and conviction of those involved.

On to the subject of the day:  KAMALA HARRIS WILL PREVAIL OVER DONALD TRUMP ON NOVEMBER 5.  That is not my prediction, but that of Allan Lichtman, a historian renowned for accurately predicting 9 of the 10 most recent presidential elections.  This video actually says Lichtman's record is 10 for 10.

Who is Alan Lichtman?

  • Born in Brooklyn, New York to Jewish parents in 1947.  So he is 77 years old.
  • PhD from Harvard.
  • Is a Democrat.
  • Has taught at American University in DC since 1973.
  • In the early 1980s, while a visiting professor at the California Institute of Technology, had a 17-episode stint on the game show Tic Tac Dough, and won $100,000.
  • Ran for the U.S. Senate in 2006 from Maryland.  Came in 6th in the primary.
  • Published The Case for Impeachment  (of Donald Trump) in 2017, and 12 other books.
  • Lichtman created the Keys to the White House model with Soviet seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981. The model uses 13 true/false criteria to predict whether the presidential candidate of the incumbent party will win or lose the next election.[1]
  • Those 13 keys:

The keys include questions such as:

  • Did the White House party gain House seats during the midterm elections?
  • Is the sitting president running for reelection?
  • Is the White House party avoiding a primary contest?
  • Is there a third-party challenger?
  • Is the short-term economy strong?
  • Has long-term economic growth been as good as in the previous two terms?
  • Has the White House party made major changes to national policy?
  • Is there sustained social unrest during the term?
  • Is the White House untainted by scandal, and is the incumbent party charismatic?
  • Is the challenger uncharismatic?
  • Is the incumbent charismatic?
  • Has the White House party experienced a major failure in foreign policy?
  • Has the White House party achieved foreign policy success?

  • Very simple 13 true/false criteria to predict the winner of the next presidential election.
  • Has used it since 1984.
  • You see him on CNN, MSNBC and Fox News.
  • One mistake was predicting an Al Gore victory.
  • Well, there was a second.  He predicted Donald Trump to in 2016 win the popular vote.

There are others, too.  Watch James Carville talk to Anderson Cooper:

I could be wrong, but it’s gonna break in one direction or the other,” he said of this November’s vote. “I really believe that. Most of the time, these elections do that. And I don’t like to predict elections. I would just say it just doesn’t feel like a race that Harris is gonna lose. But that’s just a feeling. That’s just a feeling.

After suffering through Donald Trump in 2016 beating Hillary Clinton, I fear the worst.  However:

  • How can more battleground state voters pick a horrible man, Donald Trump, over an obvious patriot and trustworthy person, Kamala Harris?
  • Yes, Democracy is at stake.  
    • How can so many American voters be so oblivious to what will happen to our country if Trump wins.  The Supreme Court has already justified what Trump has announced he will do.
  • He has publicly stated that there will be no future elections when president again.  He will start a monarchy, sort of like the Kims in North Korea.  He badly want's to join the president for life club.
  • Trump got trounced in his debate with Kamala Harris.
  • Trump picked an elitist future Trump as his running mate, while Harris' Veep partner can relate well to the majority of American voters.
  • Trump and Vance keep embarrassing themselves, like that pet-eating furor in Springfield, Ohio.
  • But the bottom line is this:
    • The latest Gallup poll shows that 29% of voters are Republicans, 30% Democrats and 40% Independents.
    • Half of Republicans are strong Trump supporters.  But that is only 14.5% of total voters.  He keeps only satisfying his MAGA base, while alienating others.  I miss this logic of his.
    • Very few Democrats will vote for Trump.
    • More and more Republicans are choosing to vote for Harris over Trump.
    • Surely, at least half of Independents will vote for Harris.
    • How can Trump beat Harris?
  • The real challenge for Democrats this year is not the White House, but the Senate and House.
  • If Republicans win the White House, Senate and House, that will be end of Democracy for the USA.
  • Appreciating the patriotism and morality of U.S. citizens, I can't see that happening.

Tropical Storm Helene is at 50 MPH, and predicted to strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane, making landfall over the Florida Panhandle in the direction of Tallahassee Thursday afternoon or evening.

In the East Pacific, Hurricane John made landfall over Mexico, east of Acapulco. yesterday at 120 MPH.
The season finale for America's Got Talent is tonight.  The following acts performed last week.  Tonight is the night when the champion is announced.

  • Sebastian and Sonia
  • AIRFOOTWORKS
  • Hakuna Matata Acrobats
  • DeeDee Simon
  • Brent Street
  • Learnmore Jonasi
  • Richard Goodall
  • Roni Sagi & Rhythm
  • Sky Elements
  • Solange Kardinaly

Throughout the Finale, viewers will be treated to a lineup of special performances from the Acts as they team up with a variety of exciting guest stars. On September 17 it was announced that Simone Biles & the Gold Over America Tour, The Voice Coach Michael Bublé, Neal Schon and members of Journey, Steve Aoki, Gabriel Iglesias, the Las Vegas cast of Magic Mike Live, Andra Day, and Season 14's the Detroit Youth Choir would each make an appearance. 

My personal favorite is Richard Goodall.  I think Sky Elements will be crowned champion.

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