WHAT ABOUT A TRAIN TRIP? Part One: How Safe?

Well, tomorrow, November 3, will be mid-term elections day. 

• The midterms, or next general election day, 7November2028, is not a Federal holiday.  Some states treat these days as holidays.  Seen in green to the right.

• 
  The development of the Morse electric telegraph forced the U.S. Congress to in 1845 mandate a uniform national date for choosing Presidential electors.  This technology made results known virtually immediately, and this could have influenced the vote in other states.
• The first Tuesday after the first Monday in November was selected to allow farmers to finish the harvest, while keeping away from snowstorms and the Christmas period.  

• 
  Most primary elections are held between March and September, also usually on Tuesdays.
• Pro sports leagues that play in November typically don't schedule games on Election Day.
• Early voting began in 2000.
• Well, it now looks like there will be a 2026 mid-term election day.  The concern shifts to post-election legal challenges.

Here are some speculations.

• Most polls seem to have Democrats taking control of the House.  But there remain some uncertainties in the Senate.
• Members of the Senate are elected every six years, and in cycles which means only 35 out of 100 seats are up for re-election this November. There are 15 Republican-leaning seats, while 13 are likely to go to the Democrats. Seven states could go either way.  The Republicans hold 53 seats in the Senate, and the Democrats 45. There are also two independents, Bernie Sanders and Angus King, who caucus with the Democrats.
• Here is what Steve Kornacki says.
• Longer CNN video.

Now, to my topic of today.  We all need to move about to enjoy a full life.  Today I'll compare the safety of various modes of travel.  There was that terrible crash in Spain on October 28.  Is it safe to go on train trips?

According to data compiled on Transport accident - Wikipedia, the risk of death per travel metric changes dramatically across modes: [1]

Mode of Travel	Deaths per Billion Journeys	Deaths per Billion Hours	Deaths per Billion km
Bus	4.3	11.1	0.4
Rail	20	30	0.6
Van	20	60	1.2
Car	40	130	3.1
Foot (Walking)	40	220	54.2
Water (Boat/Ship)	90	50	2.6
Air (Commercial)	117	30.8	0.05
Pedal Cycle (Bicycle)	170	550	44.6
Motorcycle	1,640	4,840	108.9

The above table clearly shows that trains are, actually, a relatively safe mode of travel.

• Clearly, you don't want to ride a motorcycle, for there are double the deaths per distance traveled compared to just walking.  Walking is great for exercise, but you need to be careful.  Traffic, tripping, mongrel dogs, muggings and so forth.  I walk in my apartment hallway over carpet with handrails on both walls to avoid those problems.

• 
  Bicycles are just a bit safer than walking.
• Cars are 17.5 times safer than walking.
• Air travel is more than a thousand times safer than walking.
• Of course, the distinction to make is that of distance.  
• You can't catch a plane to walk a mile for exercise.
• A bike is used to get to a place faster.
• You need to pay a lot more for a car than a bike, plus gasoline vs exercise, but most of us travel most by car anyway for various reasons.
• The death rate of car or ship travel is relatively close, but one moves in water and the other on land.  You will pay more for movement by ship than a drive on vacation, but there are other factors why people go on a cruise.

• 
  One advantage of taking a train is that it is more than 4 times safer than a cruise and around 5 times safer than driving.
• Commercial air travel is by far the safest.
• 62 times safer than driving.
• 52 times safer than a ship.
• 12 times safer than a train.
• Commercial airline deaths/year:
• From 2000 to 2009:  680.
• From 2010 to 2019:  304.
• From 2020 to 2025:  137.
• Hmmm...getting better and better.

• 
  From Google AI:

The chance of dying in a commercial airline crash is extraordinarily low, with general estimates placing the odds at roughly 1 in 11 million per flight or up to 1 in 37 million depending on recent global tracking data. [1, 2]

About that recent train crash in Spain.

• 69 people died, with over 100 injured.
• In January of this year, there was another Spanish accident claiming around 45 lives.

• 
  China has 12 times the high speed railway network compared to Spain.  Since 2000, "only" around 150 have died, including workers.
• Japan.

• 
  Since 2000, has had 115 train deaths, but 107 from the April 2005 Amagasaki incident.
• Amazingly enough, the Shinkansen (bullet train) has had ZERO on-board passenger deaths since it began operating in 1964!

So about travel by train.

• Yes, twelve times more deaths per distance traveled compared to flying.
• But trains are safer on a per-trip basis.
• And much more environmentally cleaner than planes.
• 
  I've been all over Japan on their bullet train, which is fast, safe, timely, and get this:  you can place quarter on its side, and this coin will not fall from Tokyo to Kyoto.  You can take a photo of what is outside, like Mount Fuji.  On a plane, some nice sunsets, but not much more.

• 
  Earlier this year we took a train trip from Toronto to Vancouver.  Lots of pluses and minuses.  Read about our experience.

• 
  Next month, we will take the SJourney from Hanoi to Saigon.  From Google AI:

What it is: Vietnam’s premier luxury rail offerings (like the 8-day, 7-night slow-travel SJourney Train or private luxury tour packages) transform the 1,072-mile North-South route into a five-star hotel on wheels. [1, 2, 3]

Cost: Roughly $7,300 to $10,000+ per person (or around $8,600+ standard pricing). [1, 2, 3]
Accommodations: 10m² private twin or double cabins featuring high-end 5-star bedding, floor-to-ceiling panoramic windows, wardrobes, mini-bars, safety boxes, and en-suite private bathrooms with actual showers. [1, 2, 3]

Dining & Amenities: Fine-dining restaurant cars serving multi-course Vietnamese and Western meals, unlimited wine/beer, afternoon tea, daily housekeeping, concierge services, and off-train guided cultural excursions. [1, 2]
Vibe: Slow travel (operating at around 40 km/h) designed to mimic a luxury cruise or boutique resort. Opinions on social media and travel groups note that while the comfort rivals luxury hotels, some feel it trades away the gritty, real-life authenticity of local transit for a curated bubble. [1, 2]

• 
  Mind you, this train travels at around 30 MPH, versus the Shinkansen up to 200 MPH.  
• We will be on this train for a week.
• However, Vietnam will next year begin building a 220 MPH rail system, bringing this trip down to 6 hours.

Tomorrow, the best trips in the world.

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