A BLUE AMERICAN TSUNAMI

While it was not a big surprise for Democrats to flip both houses of Congress, what happened yesterday was still in many ways historic, and most importantly, will go a long way to preserve American Democracy.

First of all, I've never before in my life ever watched the results of any midterm election.  Yesterday I was glued to my TV set, from 11AM Hawaii time to 10PM (which was 3AM ET).  The attraction for me to watch so long was the building euphoria of a Blue American Tsunami.

From Newsweek:

While midterm elections typically favor the party out of power, the scale of this year’s result points to a broader rejection of the Republican administration.

Since 1946, the party controlling the White House has lost House seats in 18 of 20 midterms, with an average loss of about 26 seats. 

On the other hand:

The milestone potentially sets up a new political dynamic in Washington. A President has not had to deal with a Congress completely controlled by the opposition party since the last two years of Barack Obama’s presidency. Congress now stands to be a true counterweight to the White House and its agenda. 

So looking ahead to a final conclusion to these 2026 midterm elections, realizing that a few seats could take a week or two or more to get final results, here is what the 120th Congress will look like when it convenes at noon on 3January2027. 

• The House will have Hakeem Jefferies as Speaker and most probably at least 245 seats (218 is sufficient be in the majority).  He thus will have a 52-vote majority.  You can wield a lot of power with this kind of freedom.
• I have seen at least one speculation that this total could reach 260 seats.  
• This means there should only be from 178 to 193 Republican House members.
• 
  The Senate final total will be delayed by Mississippi and Alaska.
• Mississippi.
• Democrat Scott Colom  462,857, a lead of 65 votes
• Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith 462,792.
• She is the incumbent, the first female senator from the state.
• Endorsed by Donald Trump.
• Independent Ty Pinkins 19,938.
• 96% of votes counted.  
• Around 20,000 left.
• Here and there in various counties.
• Provisional ballots cast by voters who didn't immediately meet voting requirements at the polls.  Individuals need to confirm identity at their circuit clerk's office by November 10.
• Mail-in ballots postmarked no later than November 3, and received by November 8.
• Certification will be completed by November 13.
• 
  Mississippi has the largest percentage of African Americans in the U.S. at 38%.
• There is no automatic recount provision in state law, but a challenger can seek a court order for recount.
• From what I've read and saw on television, my sense is that Democrat Colom will prevail.

• 
  More importantly, Forbes reports that Colum is getting 90% of the betting odds today.  Interestingly enough, both Kalshi and Polymarket gave Colom only a 14% chance of winning just before voting started yesterday.

• 
  Alaska.
• With 74% of the votes counted, Democrat Mary Peltola is leading Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan by only 626 votes.
• Polymarket and Kalshi still price Peltola as a heavy favorite at 87¢ and 88¢, because the ballots left to count are expected to lean her way.

• 
  Thus, the current 54 Democratic seats and 44 Republican seats in the 120th Congress, based on BETTING ODDS, should be:  56 Democrats and 44 Republicans, a 12-seat advantage for Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.
• 12 divided by 100 equals 12%.
• House?  If  the expected 52 seat advantage is accurate = 11.8%.

The 2026 midterm election was historic.

• Keisha Lance Bottoms, former Atlanta mayor, will become the first Black female governor in the country.
• Gina Hinojosa will become the first Texas Latina governor.
• Deb Haaland of New Mexico will become the first Native American governor.

• 
  Ohio, Minnesota and Tennessee will get their first female governors:  Amy Acton, Amy Klobuchar and Marsha Blackburn.
• Peggy Flanagan of Minnesota will become thirst Native American women in the U.S. Senate.

• Byron Donalds will become Florida's first Black governor.  Same for David Crowley in Wisconsin and Aaron Flood in Nevada.

• 
  Chris Pappas of New Hampshire will become the first out gay man to serve the U.S. Senate.
• Abdul El-Sayad will become the Senate's first Muslim member.
• Xavier Becerra will become California's first Latino governor.

One final piece of good news, spurred by the results of the midterm elections.  European Brent crude oil today fell below $100/barrel for the first time since October 7.   Someday soon, hopefully, gasoline prices will drop below $4/gallon.  Why?  Many voters cited the Iran War as the cause of American woes, the result being the Blue American Tsunami.  Even JD Vance thought so.  He might be the first important Republican to begin distancing himself from the President.

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