Our Monumental Global Adventure....or OMG Adventure....or Oh My God Adventure....was indeed memorable. But before summarizing the entire trip, just had to first insert the latest travail....and trial....of Donald Trump.
With all his tribulations, the latest poll just released by the New York Times and Siena College showed that Donald Trump leads Joe Biden in five of six key swing states. What is wrong with America?
Which is why I lead off with him.
- Michael Cohen is today testifying in Donald Trump's hush money trial, and will be doing so for a couple more days.
- Stormy Daniels did great last week.
- Why is Playboy model Karen McDougal not testifying? Possibly because she was paid by the National Enquirer not to reveal that she had an affair with Trump. There is a sense that Stormy did enough damage, and too much salaciousness might hurt the prosecution.
Last week I posted on what will happen at the end of this trial. Today, here are my odds:
- The chances of Donald Trump not being on the ballot against Joe Biden on 5November2024 are close to zero.
- Why?
- This hush money trial has the potential of sending Trump to jail for 136 years.
- Chances are high that there will be a hung jury.
- What does this mean?
- You need all 12 jurors to vote guilty for conviction.
- Hard to believe this happen.
- So will the masses now think that Trump is innocent?
- Well, if the vote is 11-1, 10-2 or 9-3, clearly the evidence is there that he did something wrong. This should hurt him on November 5.
- I can't imaging the vote being 0-12, 1-11, 2-10 or 3-9.
- However, there is a possibility that he could be judged guilty.
- Keep in mind that the previous trials of Allen Weisselberg regarding Trump's company and the two verdicts against Trump with regard to E. Jean Carroll were not decided by jury but by a judge.
- Trump will appeal, and this will go on and on into next year. Long enough that he could get elected president and pardon himself.
- Judge Juan Merchan could well ignore the jail potential and just put Trump on probation. Yet, Trump has been so stupidly criticizing Merchan, that I can't imagine this occurring.
- That hush money trial aside, the Supreme Court should announce some decision about Trump's immunity at some point this year.
- If this occurs, what are the odds?
- I think the chances are good that some announcement will be made next month.
- The chances are also good that the decision will be no immunity for Trump, but for the Congress to take a closer look at this issue.
- If the Supreme Court finds Trump immune to prosecution, both the January 6 coup attempt D.C. and Georgia trials will be abandoned.
- This clears the way for Trump to run against Biden on November 5.
- However, if the decision is that Trump is not immune.
- One of the two cases will probably be held, starting probably in late August or September.
- Chances are the the DC Jack Smith trial will prevail, especially as Georgia remains mixed on the validity of Fani Willis.
- If the January 6 coup attempt trial proceeds, it will not matter if a conclusion can be reached by November 5.
- This Supreme Court decision and initiation of an actual trial will be enough to doom Trump against Biden.
- The key voting bloc: Independents. Latest Gallup poll.
- 27% Republicans, 25% Democrats and 45% Independents.
- Trump will be supported by his MAGA people, no matter what.
- They make up 24% of voters.
- Mind you, 45% of voters express a negative view of MAGA.
- So this leaves you with 31% going either way.
- Trump would need 87% of this 31% group to reach 51%.
- There could be more, for there are many that just don't care about Biden.
- However, with these trials, and the matter of personal character, one would think that most Americans have some sense of right and wrong.
- Plus there is that percentage of hard core Republicans who value democracy, uprightness and the like.
- Regarding Democrats, I can't image a whole lot of them so despising Biden that they would massively vote for someone like Donald Trump.
- Biden would be vulnerable to someone like Nikki Haley. And this is why at the Republican Convention on July 18, I won't be too surprised if Trump picks Haley as his vice-presidential candidate. But would Haley accept?
I feel relatively safe in Honolulu. Having just left Times Square, thought this incident would provide you some sense of how safe I felt there:
Actor Steve Buscemi was walking in midtown Manhattan in New York City last week when someone punched him in broad daylight. He is known for his roles in the films "Fargo" and "Reservoir Dogs," and was last seen on screen in the final season of “Curb Your Enthusiasm.”
Police arrived to find Buscemi with bruising, swelling and bleeding in his left eye. He was stable when emergency services took him to a hospital. An investigation continues, police said, and no arrests have been made. The attack is the latest in a string of odd incidents in which New York City pedestrians — including several celebrities and influencers — have been attacked while walking on the street.
So on to our OMG adventure. Where do I start? Perhaps a summary. Maybe a few more photos. Some more exciting stories? We did a lot of nothing, actually.
Well, here is our entire around the world trip:
- Wikipedia has a list of notable travelers, maybe a hundred names, but few went around the world.
- What about explorers?
- Ferdinand Magellan was the first to sail around the world, right? Wrong.
- Began westward in 1519 from Spain at a time when the consensus was not that the world was round.
- But was killed by a poison arrow in the Philippines in 1521.
- The crew was led by Sebastian Elcano, who returned to Spain in 1522, a trip of 60,000 miles with a 20% survival rate.
- Read about China's Zheng He and his world travels, and those of others.
- Yuri Gagarin, who on 12April1961 went around the world in 108 minutes as the first human to do so in space. Here is a full list.
- Then there are films.
- Here is a list of 305, but few portray a circumnavigation.
- Jules Verne wrote Around the World in 80 Days in 1872, which used the technology of those days, like a hot air balloon, a train and a ship.
- The film made in 1956 had 1302 named actors and breathtaking cameos.
- Only got 72/57 scores from Rotten Tomatoes.
- But the 2004 remake only got 32/34.
I've posted numerous times on those explorers and movies. Tell you what, I'll complete our global odyssey tomorrow, for there were highlights, lowlights and lessons learned. Our experience was mundane compare to those above, but worthy of re-telling.
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