DONALD TRUMP vs JOE BIDEN

There are two stories that head a list of newsworthy items, both covered by President Joe Biden in a press conference today:

The purpose was to provide an advanced notice of upcoming peace talks between Israel and the Hamas about the Gaza Strip.  He went on the air as Sabbath began in Israel.  What is noteworthy about this announcement is that the president of the United States first mentioned this process.  This was bold and rare, indicating that he probably was given the go-ahead by Prime Minister Netanyahu, who will either confirm or not this process at sunset tomorrow.  Who knows what the Hamas will say.  One more point in Biden's speech is that hinted were about the prospects of a peace agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which will certainly not occur this year, but something to work on for the four years after relection.

As an opening, he remarked on the Trump guilty verdict, reaffirming the American principle that no one is above the law.   Further:  Donald Trump was given every opportunity to defend himself.  A state case, not a federal case, was heard by a jury of 12 citizens. Twelve Americans. Twelve people like you, like millions of Americans who served on juries.

My sense is that the Trump team did not put on a full court press at the end of the trial because they thought that out of the 12 jurors, they had perhaps one, if not more, in their pocket.  They knew he couldn't be acquitted, but using their street smarts, they felt, like I did, that there was no way 12 average citizens would all vote guilty.  Victory for them was a hung jury.  Well, the unanimous guilty vote was a shock.

So anyway, the greatest trial in the USA, and maybe the whole world, in all of history, ended yesterday with the conviction of former president Donald Trump on 34 felon counts.  Why do I think so?

Well, for one, here is one attempt at listing the most important ones in the past. Rather mundane, recent and American.

1. O. J. Simpson murder trial.
2. Sam Sheppard murder trial
3. Attempted assassination of President Ronald Reagan.

What about the world?  

Four Famous Trials that Changed History

• “Scopes Monkey Trial.”
• The Nuremberg trials
• The O.J. Simpson trial
• Impeachment Trial against President Bill Clinton

Encyclopedia Brittanica has a Top Ten, and these are in reverse chronological order.

1. 1998/9   The impeachment Senate trial of President Bill Clinton.  Monica-gate?
2. 1995      O. J. Simpson.
3. 1970/1   Charles Manson.
4. 1927      Sacco-Vanzetti.
5. 1925      Scopes Monkey trial, pitting William Jennings Bryan and Clarence Darrow.
6. 1921      Black Sox scandal...about baseball.
7. 1893      Lizzie Borden...forty whacks plus one.  Oh, she was acquitted.
8. 1692      Salem witch trials.  They were convicted, but later released and annulled.
9. 1633      Inquisition of Galileo.  In 2000 Pope John Paul II gave a formal apology.
10. 399 BC Trial of Socrates as a threat to Athenian democracy.  Yes, he drank hemlock and died.

Here is a list of 77, and among them are Al Capone (that's him to the left), Ted Bundy, Michael Jackson, Amanda Knox, Harvey Weinstein...all U.S. related.  Or more worldly, Joan of Arc in 1431, Marie Antoinette in 1793, Nelson Mandela in 1963-4, etc.  But, again, not much compared to a former leader of the dominant country in the world, with the conviction to become a dictator.

But the above list continues to foster the traditional mindset in the U.S., that history means Europe and our own country.  When I first went to college, the required history course was Western Civilization, western meaning east of the USA, or Europe, and a little of the Middle East.  Sure, many things were first invented in China, but trials from there, Russia and the rest of the world didn't seem to count.

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  For example, since the 1980's, four South Korean presidents have been jailed after leaving office and one committed suicide while under investigation.
• I'm particularly familiar with President Chun Doo-Hwan (right) because I had dinner with him, and two years later in 1996 was sentenced to death for suppressing an uprising.  However, he was pardoned.

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  In 1976, former Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka of Japan resigned amidst allegations of corruption, arrested, went to trial, was found guilty, appealed, and the case remained open before the Supreme Court until his death in 1993.  His daughter, Makiko Tanaka, went on to become the first female foreign minister of Japan in 2001.  However, in 2002 she resigned from the Diet, accused of embezzling salaries, went to trial, and was cleared.

So back to my contention that the trial of Donald Trump is the most monumental in the history of the world, let us look at the why.   

• He is a former President of the USA and most likely Republican candidate for another term on 5November2024.  
• If he had been acquitted, the odds are good that he could well again be elected president, by changing the Constitution.  This would maybe end democracy, and usher in a monarchy of future Trumps.  
• The result would be an uncertain world with no obvious international lead for freedom and liberty.  
• To be tossed into jail could be Joe Biden; half of Hollywood stars; a bunch of former staffers, especially Michael Cohen; Trump's niece Mary; and...well, it's a long list.

What can happen to Trump?  From the New York Times:

Mr. Trump was convicted of 34 Class E felonies, New York’s lowest level, each of which carry a potential penalty of up to four years in prison.  Probation or home confinement are other possibilities that Justice Merchan can consider.

Mr. Trump, 77, currently faces three other criminal cases: two federal, dealing with his handling of classified documents and his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, and a state case in Georgia that concerns election interference.

The bottom line is that, no matter what Judge Merchan decides, Trump can still run for president.

Are Republicans finally seeing  the light about the danger of Trump?  Well, mostly no:

House Speaker Mike Johnson, who had traveled to the Manhattan courthouse during the trial to defend Trump, decried what he described as “the weaponization of our justice system,” saying in a statement, “President Trump will rightfully appeal this absurd verdict — and he WILL WIN.”

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who’s had a frosty relationship with the former president, said in a short statement: “These charges never should have been brought in the first place. I expect the conviction to be overturned on appeal.

Kari Lake, the Republican poised to face Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego in Arizona’s Senate race, said Americans had “just witnessed the most egregious example of election interference and an outright mockery of the rule of law in the 246-year history of our Republic. This entire process right down to the verdict itself has been nothing but a shameful political stunt.”

There will be more, a lot more.  However, at some point, there will be soft reversals.  How much so will finally determine if he is, indeed, voted in as the Republican nominee on July 18, and Trump will.

Frankly, Joe Biden should be afraid that Trump won't be his competition.  If sanity can prevail in those few weeks between now and the Republican Convention, and Nikki Haley is selected as their nominee, that would shift an almost certain win for Biden into a toss-up.

A key next phase will occur on July 11, four days before the Republican National Committee convenes in Milwaukee and two weeks after the first debate, when Judge Juan Merchan sentences Trump.  What are the options?

• 4 years each for 34 counts can add up to 136 years in jail.  However, it is appearing that the maximum time will 20 years.  The odds are low that Merchan will give Trump 20 years of incarceration.
• The most likely outcome, I think, is a jail term of 4 years.  As Trump will appeal, he can still openly run for president, for this judicial process could extend until next year.  Chances are that the judge will pretty much allow Trump to be unencumbered with any serious reporting handicaps during this period.
• A fine.  How much?  Who knows.
• Probation?  The way Trump has continued to insult Merchan and the judiciary, I find it difficult to believe that this will happen.  Especially when he showed no remorse by immediately again walking out of the courtroom violated the judge's gag order against him.  Then he today again lashed out against the judge.  Watch this video.
• The problem with Trump is that he never learns a lesson, for he keeps lying, exaggerating, etc., etc.

So on to the first debate on June 27 at CNN's Atlanta studio (no live audience), Republican National Convention from July 15-18 in Milwaukee, September 10 debate on ABC, with details to come; and election day, 5November2024.  Supreme Court decision?

Now that he is a convicted felon, and will remain so until Trump gets a Supreme Court response on his guilt next year, voters will more and more be influenced.  The following is a best case scenario for Joe Biden.

• The Israel-Hamas-Giza Strip mess gets worked out over the next 158 days.
• The Ukraine-Russia War continues, at it almost surely will, while Putin awaits Trump's victory.
• The economy does not much change.
• What will happen on November 5?
• Chances are high that Donald Trump will still become the Republican nominee for president on July 18, and the Republican Party remains is some state of disarray.  This is important for Biden, for he won't lose to Trump under current conditions, but could be beaten by Nikki Haley.
• Say the MAGA-Trump group and those loyal to Biden are both 25% of likely voters.
• This leaves 50% Independents, plus marginal Republican and Democrats.
• At least 5% of this 50% group will switch to Biden over Trump because he is now a convicted felon.  Only 5%!  Could easily be 10%.
• Diehard marginal Republicans could well choose to skip voting instead of for Biden.  This will hurt Congressional and statewide Republicans running for office.  Same for some Independents.
• Under those conditions, the 7 swing states should sufficiently sway toward Biden.
• The result could be a landslide, with Biden as the next president, Democrats solidifying the Senate margin and the House going Democrat.
• I'm still so afraid of a next Trump presidency that I should be permitted to dream a bit.

There was the 2024 Scripps National Spelling Bee this week.  

• It was won by Bruhat Soma of Florida, who is all of 12 years old.  He was competing against mostly 15-year olds.  
• Since 1999, 28 of the last 34 champions have been Americans with parents from India.  Bruhat is the fourth such in a row.  
• In 2019 eight winners were declared, seven from India roots.
• In 2022, of the 127 million households in our country, 3.1 million were from India.  They had twice the median income at $147,000, and most of these students had parents with college degrees.
• So why this dominance?  Well, the above helps, plus they came from an English-speaking location, with strong cultural influences that appreciates hard work.
• Actually, only 12% of people from India speak English as a first language.
• Local languages dominate, and 44% speak Hindi.
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  Turns out there is a particular subgroup that is overrepresented:  families from the southern states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, where Telugu is the primary language.  Hyderbad, the capital of Telangana is India's information-technology hub, and this region provides the most H-1B visa recipients.
• This situation with the spelling bee will continue, for there today is record total of nearly 269,000 students from India in our colleges, and they received 74% of the H-1B visas.

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