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AS THE WORLD TURNS

   From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

          DAY  USA  WORLD    Brazil    India    South Africa

2020
June     9     1093     4732         1185        246       82
July    22      1205     7128         1293      1120     572
Aug    12      1504     6556        1242        835     130
Sept     9      1208      6222       1136       1168       82
Oct     21      1225      6849         571        703       85
Nov    25       2304    12025        620        518      118
Dec    30       3880    14748       1224       299      465
2021
Jan     14       4142    15512       1151        189     712
Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398
Mar      2       1989     9490        1726       110      194
April     6        906    11787         4211       631       37
May     4        853     13667        3025      3786     59 
June    1        287    10637         2346      3205      95
 July    7         251      8440        1595        817      411
Aug     4         656    10120        1118        532      423 
Sept   22      2228      9326          839       279     124
Oct      6       2102      8255          543       315       59
Nov    3        1436      7830         186        458       23
Dec     1       1633      8475          266        477       28
2022
Jan     7        2025      6729         148         285     140
Feb     2        2990   12012          946        991      175
Mar     2        1778     7756          335         173       28 
Apr     1          439      4056         290          52       12
May    5          225      2404         151            ?        64
June    2         216      1413         130          10        31
July    6          316      1627         335           35       12 
Aug    4          311       2138         258          70         ?
Sep    1          272       1732          174            ?         ?
Oct     6          281       1305         119            9         ?
Nov    2          242       1055           30           9        ? 
          3          167         980            16            ?        ?
          9          186       1060           78            3         ?

Summary:
  • The USA was again #1 in new deaths yesterday with 186, #2 Germany 175 and #3 Japan 97.
  • Japan was #1 in new cases with 87,410, #2 South Korea 62,472, #3 Germany 338,668 and #4 USA 32,385.  Good thing we decided not to stop over in Japan or S. Korea on our way to Dubai.
  • About weekly trends:
    • Cases in the last 7 days (in parentheses, cases/million population):
      • #1  Japan  326,714 (3530)
      • #2  S. Korea  274,252 (6102)
      • #3  Germany  266,357 (2929)
      • #4  USA  267,357 (660)
      •  Note that the USA is doing nearly ten times better than S. Korea
    • Regarding our travel stops, Weekly % Case Change during the past week:
      • Thailand  -40%
      • Singapore  -39%
      • USA  -17%
      • UAE  -13%
    • You don't want to go to these sites:
      • #1  Seychelles  +34,500
      • #2  Senegal  +13,800%
      • #13  French Polynesia  +450%
      • #26  China  +92%
      • #41  Japan  +36%
      • #42  France  +36%
      • But the following are declining.
      • World  -8%
      • #96  UAE (Dubai)  -13%
      • #99  USA  -17%
      • #122  Singapore  -39%
      • #125  Thailand  -40%
      • These negative countries are those where we will be spending several days, and nowhere else.

Who is to blame for that Pink Slash on Tuesday?  Looks more and more like Donald Trump.  Kevin McCarthy had predicted flipping 60 House seats.  Republicans are still favored to end up with a tiny majority, but even that prospect can be scuttled by late-counting California races.  

We knew Gavin Newsom was re-elected governor Tuesday night.  Here he is with Secretary of State Shirley Webber.  But so little info about those crucial House races.  Why so tardy?

The California Secretary of State’s office posted a big sign on Twitter Wednesday reminding readers, “Counting Takes Time.”  Tuesday, the office tweeted, “Today is NOT Election Results day. County elections officials have 30 days to process and verify all ballots received. The Secretary of State will certify CA election results by December 16th.”

One excuse is that more are voting by mail.  Sacramento, for example, 864,814 registered voters, and a lot them came in on election day.   Only 21,116 voted in-person.  In particular, there are five Republican incumbents who were targeted by Democrats, and, if all of them can be overturned, that could well determine House leadership.  Currently, Speaker Nancy Pelosi has a majority of 9.  If Kevin MacCarthy's party prevails, he would be lucky to have 5 more Republicans.  If California comes through for the Democrats, Pelosi could well have a majority of one.

The Senate is similarly so, for Georgia will have that run-off on December 6, while mail-in ballots are  still being counted in Nevada and Arizona.  Here is my take as to what will happen:

  • In Arizona, Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly has a decent lead, but this is the state that had Biden ahead until the final count, when Trump made a comeback that just fell short.  It seems that there will be a partial announcement today that could well look good for Kelly.  However, the danger, and why this vote hasn't yet been called, is that the Friday votes will pad the count for challenger Blake Masters.   Kelly should nevertheless prevail.
  • In Nevada, Republican Adam Laxalt is almost 2% points ahead of incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto.  Chances are that Masto will pull at least even when the mail-in votes are counted, for these will be dominated by the most populous Clark County, which leans Democratic.  However, because official verification need not be made until Thursday, November 17, we might know the final results until that day.  Republicans are optimistic, but I think Masto will edge out Laxalt, so if Kelly had won, Democrats will reach 50 seats, and the Georgia run-off will thus only be to see if Democrats get ahead 51-49.

On the international front, world leaders, save for Vladimir Putin, will be heading for Bali, Indonesia to participate in the G20 summit, November 15-16. The Prime Minister of Indonesia is Joko Widodo.  These sessions are held every two years, and next one will be held in Brazil.

Joe Biden is scheduled to met with Jinping Xi for their first face-to-face encounter as leaders.  Could be testy, as China remains concerned about Taiwan.  Both are secure, for the mid-terms went well for Biden and Xi just got an unprecedented third term.   Hopefully, there will be a positive note about cooperating in global warming remediation.

The Ukraine War remains a mess.  Russia seems to be leaving Kherson, but no one in the West is celebrating, for this could just be another regrouping.  Joint Chiefs of Staff chair General Mark Milley has estimated that BOTH Russia and Ukraine have lost more than 100,000 troops, plus another 40,000 Ukrainians have died.

Scores of Hirokazu Tanakas — identified by nicknames referencing favorite foods or hobbies, like “Chewing Gum,” “Hot Pot” and “Triathlon” — assembled in Japan to set a record for the largest gathering of people with the same first and last names. They surpassed the previous mark set by 164 Martha Stewarts (including the famous one) in 2005. It was the third attempt by the Same Name Association of Hirokazu Tanakas, which failed to achieve sufficient numbers of Hirokazu Tanakas in 2011 and 2017. “I feel as if we’re all related and it doesn’t feel like we’ve met for the first time,” said group leader Hirokazu Tanaka. (Source: UPI)

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