Politics later. I first start with something startling.
- Hawaii is the best place in the world to watch the total eclipse of the Moon tonight.
- Starts at 10:02PM Hawaii time, turns blood red at 12:16PM, stays this dark reddish-copper color for 85 minutes, and ends at 3:46AM. Duration: 5 hours, 42 minutes.
- And you can watch without wearing any safety glasses, which are required for solar eclipses.
You would think that New York, which is now 5 hours ahead of Hawaii, would end at 8:36 AM when the sun would have been up for 2 hours. But eclipses don't work that way. For New York:- Begins at 3:02 AM.
- Peaks at 5:59AM.
- Ends at 6:41AM, with the sun rising just before at 6:35AM
- Duration: 3 hours, 39 minutes.
- Thus, Hawaiians will see the whole lunar eclipse longer than anyone else.
- The next total eclipse will occur on 14March2025.
No one won the Powerball $1.6 billion Saturday night.
- You needed to have white balls 28,45,53,56 and 69, plus red Powerball 20. The Power Pay multiplier was 3X.
The odds of winning the jackpot were 1 in 2,292,2000.- No one has won for 3 months.
- Not that nobody won anything, for 10.9 million tickets won cash prizes totaling $102.2 million. 16 tickets actually matched all 5 white balls to win $1 million. A ticket in Kentucky not only matched all 5 white balls, but also the Power Play option, to win $2 million. 219 tickets won $50,000, and 51 won $150,000.
- The jackpot is now $1.9 billion, with a cash payout of $929 million...TONIGHT at 10:59PM ET.
- The previous record was $1.6 billion by 3 ticket holders in 2016.
There was a Mega Millions jackpot of $1.5 billion in 2018.- Residents in Alabama, Alaska, Hawaii, Mississippi and Utah need to go out of state to buy a ticket. Utah and Hawaii outlaw all kinds of gambling. Online is a fuzzy matter, and most of what I've read is that citizens from these states can participate online. Hawaii residents, however, must either go to other states or get friends to do this.
Why do states even have Powerball?- The real winners are for environmental protection, education and other charity programs.
- Each state is different, if they participate.
- Here is what happens in Texas.
- In Maryland, the lottery is the 4th biggest contributor to the general funds.
- In Pennsylvania, all lottery profits go to services for senior citizens.
So should you buy a lottery ticket? One statistician calculated your odds of winning are one in 300 million. But if you do win, you can only buy maybe only one yacht, travel and make your family self-sufficient forever. The IRS offers an EO Select Check to help you give your money away.- Only $2/ticket. The next winner might be tonight, or Wednesday, or Saturday.
So to the topic of the day, tomorrow and perhaps forever for democracy in the USA...if ever there was a perfect political storm to carry Democrats to retain control of Congress during any midterm, 2022 looked promising. However, general voter apathy to what should be compelling issues has been bewildering.
The big bucks, further, are being spent on Republicans, $338 million to $168 million:
More and more I dread watching all those news channel reports on what is occurring, as Republicans seem to be in position to dominate. Can you imagine what will happen to our country if this occurs? You can only go into permanent hibernation, just thinking what will then occur in 2024, with Donald Trump running for king. If bad occurs tomorrow, worst has a chance of again prevailing two years from now.
For the past six months I have been touting Democrats strengthening their hold on both houses of Congress. Sure, our inflation and the economy look terrible. However, voters don't realize that THE U.S. ECONOMY IS DOING OKAY. It is my posting of October 14. In fact, relative to other developed nations, the USA is doing about the best. How good?
Social Security benefits will rise 8.7% next year, the heftiest in 40 years. You would thing older people would now more than ever vote for Democrats.- We are not in recession, which was predicted by economists as a fallout of the Pandemic.
- The USA is doing great compared to other countries:
- With 4% the world population, we generate and more than 20% of the global income.
- Our trade deficit is down.
Sure our national debt is high, but most of that is what we owe to ourself. Other economies still invest in us as a safe haven for international assets.- Have you seen our U.S. dollar compared to the European Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Chinese Renminbi and others? Most can't imagine what the below means, but, say, go to Japan, and you will pay $50 for a bottle of whiskey that set you back $100 before the pandemic.
Unemployment rates? We are now actually down to 3.5%, THE LOWEST IN 50 YEARS! The following is a year old.
- United States: 3.9%
- China: 4.8%
- Japan: 2.8%
- Germany: 3.5%
- United Kingdom: 4.5%
- India: 6.0%
- France: 8.1%
- Italy: 9.8%
- Canada: 7.5%
- Korea, Republic: 3.5%115
Job market?
Our economy grew 2.6% during the past quarter. I can go on and on, and can only wonder why Democrats have shied away from BRAGGING about how great our economy is...RELATIVELY TO OUR TRADING PARTNERS. Yes, many are hurting, but far less than those in Europe, Russia and the Orient, especially China.
The White House party is supported when we are at war or face the threat of a nuclear Armageddon. President Joe Biden has hinted about a dirty war in Ukraine, and Republicans are more and more saying that support to Ukraine will end if they are in power. How does this affect voters? Incredibly, Republicans are gain votes on this issue.
There was almost a total absence of cities in protest and racial riots this summer. You would think that would be a blessing for Democrats. But no, Republicans have berated Democrats for being soft on crime, and urban females are buying it. Wait a minute now, by flooding the streets with more guns you are safer? Insane. The gun rights issue should be a winning policy for Democrats. It's not. Crazy.
The truth is that crime is now under relative control.
By 2000, Black adults were locked up in state prisons at 8.2 times the rate of white Americans, after accounting for population. The truth of this matter is that crime rates have long been dropping in the U.S. Check on the Brennan Center and the FBI.
Another issue, immigration. Republicans are gaining by taking a tough stance on this matter. But what about the Hispanic vote? You would think they would support those immigrants. What's happening here?
The aura of global warming is only growing. Republicans do whatever they can to protect companies and defy environmental regulations. Democrats are the saviors here. Again, how does this make any sense? Oh, you say, the environment is not a concern to voters. But it should be.
- How many court cases?
- Lying about the last presidential election, and getting the Republican party to largely support this with all the evidence being contrary.
- 6 January 2021 attack of the National Capitol.
- His character.
- Mar-a-lago and his stealing confidential info.
A Republican win would be in line with recent history. In 2006, George W. Bush described the 31-seat Democratic wave in the House as a “thumping.” Four years later, Barack Obama experienced a “shellacking” with a 63-seat Republican gain. In 2018, during Donald Trump’s presidency, Democrats picked up 41 seats. |
- The latest Gallup poll shows 35% Independents, 33% Republicans and 29% Democrats. On August 1 it was 43% I, 24% R and 30% D. Something terrible has happened to Democrats.
- So even though history, betting house, pundits and polls show an almost overwhelming victory for Republicans, my analysis shows the opposite happening,
- Our economy is not all that bad, and I don't think too many Democrat will switch their votes in light of all the other issues.
- The Ukraine War will help Democrats.
- Hispanics are wary of Republicans about immigration.
- Crime should be a washout.
- Global warming will favor Democrats.
- Abortion should be a clear influencer for Democrats.
- The January 6 attack on the Capitol, actual effort of Trump to stay in the White House, and his other crimes, will be the largest determining factor.
- The latest attack on Nancy Pelosi's husband should trigger some sympathy for Democrats.
- 10% of Democrats will be influenced by the economy and vote for a Republican.
- 20% of Republicans will not show up to vote, and 5% will switch to a Democrat.
- 20% of Independents will not show up to vote, and 10% will vote for a Democrat.
- I can't come up with a number, and, alas, most will win, but those Republicans with Trump support will be hurt the most because this Trump factor will cause a switching of votes to Democrats. Note how he kept away from Georgia. Wherever he went could only have hurt his candidate because many Republicans and Independents are essentially good people who just can't stand the guy. Perhaps only 5% to 10%, but more so for Independents. Those elections where someone wins by a point or two are the ones that will be affected.
So compared to the recent past, a flip of one seat in the Senate and five in the House should be probable. But there are reasons why I think Democrats will not only remain in control of Congress but actually add a seat or two in Senate and have a double digit edge in the House.
Certainly, I'm not the only individual worried about tomorrow. From NBCNews:
For many voters, a vicious spiral of violence and fear is creating angst, paranoia and an overwhelming sense of dread that the nation is on the eve of destruction, according to a growing body of public opinion research.
The bottom line regarding my contention is that some Americans can't be that stupid. When Trump and his cronies plead the 5th, clearly they're trying to hide something. Whether it's his taxes and/or companies, or his guilt, some percentage of citizens surely must know how crooked he and his tribe are, for what are they trying to hide? Also, all those challenged subpoenas regarding the 6January2021 Capitol invasion...same.
While a solid core of Republicans, and a smaller percentage of Independents, will stick with this cheating liar, surely something like 20% of them must harbor doubts, and even if only half of them recognize the con, this marginal group will determine who will get elected in the mid-terms. More than inflation, more than abortion, THE TRUMP EFFECT will shift those few votes toward Democrat candidates. Those candidates who have been touting his LIE about the 2020 vote for president will particularly be vulnerable.
Time magazine just published their sense of how Trump will affect the midterms. Essentially, they said that Republicans would be better off, during this current period, to have a less provocative leader. But because they have a shiftless, lying crook (they did not use these terms) leading the party, Donald Trump will become the reason why I think Democrats will strengthen their position in Congress.
But life takes us into curious corners, and are we ready for, what Maureen Dowd writes as:
A rogue’s gallery of crazy is about to be running the House.
Basically, the mid-term elections have come down to this:
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