IS THE USA IN DECLINE?

Again, nothing much going on around the world today, but this unusual hot weather could turn to snow in New York and New England this weekend.  Cities like Chattanooga, Birmingham and St. Louis could challenge heat records today dating back more than 125 years.  Then on Saturday, there could be some snowflakes in the northeast.  Not much, and mostly only at elevation, but the first snowfall is always exciting for most.

One bit of sad news is that the first American pope, Robert Francis Prevost, or Pope Leo XIV, a year and a half into service, found out that he has lung cancer.  No details yet.  Here is a video.

Yesterday, I reported on the embarrassing situation of the USA being mediocre, if not poor, in excellence of airports and airlines.  Those, unfortunately, could very well be mere symptoms of our possible decline as as the world leader..

On the other hand, according to Google AI:

Many prominent analysts argue that talk of American decline is a recurring psychological cycle rather than a reality. The U.S. experienced major waves of "declinism" during the 1950s (Sputnik panic), the 1970s (stagflation), and the 1980s (fear of Japan’s economic boom). [1, 2, 3, 4]

Defenders of American stability note that the U.S. share of global GDP has remained remarkably steady at around 25% for over half a century. Furthermore, the country retains structural advantages that its rivals lack, including the world's premier reserve currency, massive technological innovation hubs, unmatched military power, and a highly favorable demographic and geographic position. [1, 2, 3, 4]

The U.S. economy reached an all-time high of 40% of global GDP in 1960, dropping to 34% in 1985.  But with 4.25% of the world population, 25% is still remarkably high.  Nevertheless, we probably will further decline into the future.

Of course, we seem to dominate because we are most definitely the most powerful, militarily.  But this is because we spend more on war (some call it defense) than the NEXT 6 NATIONS COMBINED!

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  You can say, but in 2024 we spent more than the next 10 countries, so we need to commit more to war.  That would be missing the point.
• In comparison, the U.S. spent more than the next 6 countries in 1990, just before the end of the Cold War.
• Well what about military spending/capita:

Top 10 countries by per capita military expenditure, US dollars per person (2023).^[3]

Country name	$/cap	Accuracy
Israel	2997.1	Precise
United States	2694.2	Precise
Singapore	2194.6	Precise
Saudi Arabia	2051.9	Estimate
Kuwait	1799.3	Precise
Ukraine	1762.2	Estimate
Norway	1583.6	Precise
Denmark	1377.9	Precise
Finland	1325.2	Precise
Oman	1260.1	Estimate

• So what about China?
• According to Google AI: in 2023, roughly $156/capita.
• That's 19 times less/person than the USA.
• Russia?
• Remember, they have been at war since Ukraine 2022, or 2014, if you go back to the real beginning.
• From Google AI:  in 2023, $756/capita.

We remain superior in some categories.  The USA dominates in sports, like the Summer Olympics.  Why?  In 2026 we will spend more on sports  than the NEXT 26 COUNTRIES COMBINED!!!  Is this an important priority?

Is education important?  Again, compared to other developed countries, we are only mediocre.  Green is good, red is bad and gold is average.  Gray is probably worse than bad.

From Google AI:

How the U.S. Ranks Nationally (PISA & TIMSS Data)

Recent PISA metrics evaluate 15-year-old students across nearly 90 countries and economic systems: 

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  Mathematics: This is the U.S. system’s primary weakness. The U.S. ranks below average, placing 25th to 28th among advanced economies. Recent data shows the largest steep declines in math scores since tracking began. Pew Research Center +2
• Top Competitors: Across all subjects, American students are regularly outperformed by systems in Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Finland. Sacramento School Beat +2
• Watch this You Tube video :  new global education report reveals alarming trends in schools nationwide.
• What is PISA and TIMSS? Read this article.  One positive:

The American education system is generally observed to emphasize creativity, critical thinking, and social skills alongside academic content. Project-based learning, open-ended assessments, and extracurricular opportunities are common features of U.S. schools that many international systems have begun to incorporate into their own reforms.

Seventeen years ago, my education chapter of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity said:

So is the U.S. in trouble? Is the strongest economy ever a generation or two away from mediocrity? Nope. There is one area where we still lead in education: higher education. The total expenditure per student in the U.S. is $18,570, compared to Denmark at #2 with $11,600 and Britain at #3 with $8970. [Adrian Wooldridge, 'The Class of 2006', Economist, (2007)]

• The top three universities (Harvard, Stanford and Cal-Berkeley)
• Eight of the best ten.
• Seventeen of the top twenty.
• Thirty seven of the best 50 universities.

As a nation, we have, apparently, decided to focus on the few who will lead and produce. Who said there is no gifted children program in the U.S.? We have, it’s just that it is limited to higher education. Something is working, and this could well be the answer.

I might add that in 2006, we had 37 of the best 50 universities in the world.  Today, Google AI says that this number ranges from 15 to 25, so there has been a decline from having 37.

Is the form of government important to maintain world dominance?

• Going way back in time, China from 221 BC was organized as an absolute, centralized monarchy.  

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  Over time, China never got close to a democracy, but developed a sophisticated civil service and merit-based examination system.
• Never has had a full, Western-style liberal democracy, but the Republic of China (1912-1949) was founded by Sun Yat-sen as a republic.
• Chiang Kai-shek and the Kuomintang have since maintained an authoritarian one-party country, for the past 13 years run by Xi Jinping, who is dictator for life.

• 
  The Roman Empire was founded in 509 BC as a republic with citizen voting and such.  However, all that collapsed when Julius Caesar became dictator for life.  Then his successor, Augustus, established the Roman Empire autocracy in 27 BC.  This system prevailed to 476 AD in the West.  The Eastern Roman Empire remained autocratic for almost another thousand years , falling in 1453 when Constantinople was captured by the Ottoman Empire.
• American democracy came in 1776, adding women voting in 1920 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965.  The future of democracy will be challenged in the months to come.
• So in answer to that question....NO.

But what is Humanity all about?  Dominance?  Public welfare?  What?  I asked Google AI:

What is most important to a country depends heavily on political philosophy, a nation's stage of development, and its cultural values, as there is no single universal consensus. Different societies and political theorists prioritize different core pillars—such as human rights, governance structures, or national security—to ensure a country's survival and success.

So is the USA in decline?

• Traveling the world, and seeing how other countries are doing, I see things that worry me.
• For example, Pusan, South Korea, is fabulous:  everything looks new, there is no crime, mass transit is wonderful and attitudes are progressive.  Here is a 35-minute video produced by an American couple.

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  Adelaide, Australia is also a place I would like to re-visit.  They have somehow transcended political turmoil and all groups work for the common good.  Here is a posting of when I was there in 2023.    Their fringe festival occurs in the February-March period, so perhaps 2028.
• Various studies showing the most dangerous cities to visit in the world now include American ones, like Memphis, Oakland, Baltimore, Los Angeles, etc.  Here are the top ten worst in the USA.

Key Takeaway: The top 10 most dangerous cities show violent crime rates ranging from 1,556 to 2,437 per 100,000—between 4× and 6.4× the national average of 359.1 per 100,000. However, seven of these cities have demonstrated 10-30% crime reductions since 2019, indicating improving trends.

Rank	City	State	Violent Crime Rate (per 100K)	Population
1	Memphis	Tennessee	2,437	626,906
2	St. Louis	Missouri	2,082	301,578
3	Detroit	Michigan	2,059	639,111
4	Baltimore	Maryland	1,746	569,000
5	New Orleans	Louisiana	1,678	383,997
6	Oakland	California	1,442	440,646
7	Birmingham	Alabama	1,682	200,733
8	Little Rock	Arkansas	1,831	203,842
9	Milwaukee	Wisconsin	1,597	577,222
10	Cleveland	Ohio	1,556	372,624

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  Frankly, visited Memphis and New Orleans earlier this year, and found them to be worthy, and not particularly unsafe.  I felt a lot more uncomfortable in Paris, Milan, Rome, Delhi and any city in Africa, and South/Central America.
• So is the USA in decline.  Yes.
• What is the solution?  China seems to be again rising.  There are ways.

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