WHY THE PANDEMIC IS NOT QUICKLY GOING AWAY

From Worldometer (new COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

DAY USA WORLD Brazil India South Africa

June 9 1093 4732 1185 246 82

July 22 1205 7128 1293 1120 572

Aug 12 1504 6556 1242 835 130

Sept 9 1208 6222 1136 1168 82

Oct 21 1225 6849 571 703 85

Nov 25 2304 12025 620 518 118

Dec 30 3880 14748 1224 299 465

Jan 14 4142 15512 1151 189 712

Feb 3 4005 14265 1209 107 398

Mar 2 1989 9490 1726 110 194

April 6 906 11787 4211 631 37

May 4 853 13667 3025 3786 59

June 1 287 10637 2346 3205 95

July 7 251 8440 1595 817 411

Aug 4 656 10120 1118 532 423

Sept 22 2228 9326 839 279 124

Oct 6 2102 8255 543 315 59

Nov 3 1436 7830 186 458 23

Dec 1 1633 8475 266 477 28

Jan 7 2025 6729 148 285 140

Feb 2 2990 12012 946 991 175

Mar 2 1778 7756 335 173 28

Apr 1 439 4056 290 52 12

May 5 225 2404 151 ? 64

June 2 216 1413 130 10 31

July 7 320 1958 297 38 9

Aug 4 311 2138 258 70 ?

10 429 2400 254 53 ?

11 290 1994 173 49 ?

17 461 2502 246 72 ?

Summary:

This pandemic seems to be getting worse.
Highest number of new cases yesterday (new cases/million population in parentheses):

#1 South Korea 180,652 (3517)
#2 Japan 178,286 (1419)
#3 USA 87,108 (260)
#4 Germany 58,685 (696)
#29 Thailand 2,461 (35)
#47 Singapore 3,762 (632)
#68 UAE (Dubai) 721 (71)

Highest new deaths/million population:

#1 Marshall Islands 50
#2 Micronesia 17
#3 Hungary 12
#4 New Zealand 3.2
#7 Japan 2.3
#10 Germany 2.2
#21 USA 1.4
#22 Taiwan 1.3
#31 South Korea 0.8
#48 Thailand 0.4
#49 Singapore 0.3
#52 UAE 0.1

Interesting that South Korea had more than double the number of new cases than the USA yesterday, yet had only about half the rate of deaths.

More than two years ago, I saw this article, showing that asymptomatic cases could be as high as 85%. This was before the advent of mass vaccinations.

Why are certain locations having very high infection rates? Time magazine has a rather simple explanation, citing JAMA (Journal of the American Medical Association) Network Open:

More than half the people--56%-- who are infected with the Omicron variant are not aware of their infection.
It underscores the fact that Omicron tends to cause relatively mild symptoms (or no symptoms at all) in VACCINATED people.
HOWEVER, THEY ARE INNOCENTLY GOING AROUND INFECTING PEOPLE!!!

While the asymptomatic rate at one time might have been between 25% to 40%, now, with so many vaccinated people and those who are unlucky enough to get reinfected, the asymptomaticity is approaching 60%, and will continue to increase. The downside is that, with the relaxation of masking and distancing, those who have not been infected, will almost surely catch COVID-19.

Some countries like Japan are being cautious, and China is totally paranoid. However, most countries, even with high rates of infection, are opening up their society. Cruise ships have largely stopped testing newly boarding passengers, but still check if you are fully vaccinated. Why? The death rate is approaching that of the seasonal flu, which in the past, has not upset the economy. But infections remain a concern because of the combined effect of returning to normal policies and asymptomaticity.

While it remains uncertain when countries like South Korea and Japan will finally reduce the number of new cases, at least the death rate has remained relatively low. Hawaii is a good example of this coming syndrome. For the first two years of the pandemic, we were among the lowest in case and death rates. A few months ago we became the worst state in the union. The past few weeks have shown a gradual drop of cases and deaths. I expect Japan and South Korea to similarly decline.

From the Ukraine War:

A NEXT COVID SUBVARIANT?

By now most know that the Omicron BA.5 subvariant has become the dominant infectious agent, now accounting for more than 80% of all COVID-19 cases. Very few are aware that a new one, BA.4.6, is sneaking in and steadily rising, now accounting for 13% of sequenced samples . However, as BA.4.6 has emerged from BA.4, while there is uncertainty, the scientific sense is that the latest bivalent booster targeting BA.4 and BA.5 should also be effective for this next threat. One concern is that Evusheld--the only monoclonal antibody authorized for COVID prevention in immunocompromised individuals--is not effective against BA.4.6. Here is a reference as to what this means. A series of two injections is involved. Evusheld was developed by British-Swedish company AstraZeneca, and is a t ixagevimab co-packaged with cilgavimab . More recently, Los Angeles County reported on subvariant BA.2.75.2 . which Tony Fauci termed suspicious and troublesome. This strain has also been spreading in

Part 3: OUR NEXT AROUND THE WORLD ODYSSEY

Before I get into my third, and final, part of this cruise series, let me start with some more newsworthy topics. Thursday was my pandemic day for years. Thus, every so often I return to bring you up to date on the latest developments. All these subvariants derived from that Omicron variant, and each quickly became dominant, with slightly different symptoms. One of these will shock you. There has been a significant decline in the lost of taste and smell. From two-thirds of early patients to now only 10-20% show these symptoms. JN.1, now the dominant subvariant, results in mostly mild symptoms. However, once JN.1 infects some, there seem to be longer-lasting symptoms. Clearly, the latest booster helps prevent contracting Covid. A competing subvariant, BA.2.86, also known as Pirola , a month ago made a run, but JN.1 prevailed. No variant in particular, but research has shown that some of you will begin to lose hair for several months. This is caused by stress more than anythi

HONOLULU TO SEATTLE

The story of the day is Hurricane Milton, now a Category 4 at 145 MPH, with a track that has moved further south and the eye projected to make landfall just south of Sarasota. Good news for Tampa, which is 73 miles north. Milton will crash into Florida as a Category 4, and is huge, so a lot of problems can still be expected in Tampa Bay with storm surge. If the eye had crossed into the state just north of Tampa, the damage would have been catastrophic. Milton is a fast-moving storm, currently at 17 MPH, so as bad as the rainfall will be over Florida, again, a blessing. The eye will make landfall around 10PM EDT today, and will move into the Atlantic Ocean north of Palm Bay Thursday morning. My first trip to Seattle was in June of 1962 just after I graduated from Stanford University. Caught a bus. Was called the Century 21 Exposition . Also the Seattle World's Fair. 10 million joined me on a six-month run. My first. These are held every five years, and there have only been

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