WHAT HAPPENED TO ALL THE PREDICTED ATLANTIC HURRICANES?

 The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted the following hurricane activity levels across the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Central Pacific basins for 2022:

• 
  Atlantic: Runs from June 1 to November 30, but not necessarily.
• Above-Normal Season Likely:  14-21 named storms and 3-6 major (Category 3-5) hurricanes, the 7th consecutive above-average hurricane season.  
• Only a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
• Why?
• Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures 
• La Nina
• (Absence of El Nino means that the lack of wind shear force to break down hurricanes)
• Weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds
• Enhanced West African monsoons

• The two prominent forecasters are NOAA and Colorado State.  Past history shows that NOAA has a 92% accuracy for predicting the number of named storms, 72% for CSU, while NOAA has an 82% accuracy of predicting the number of major hurricanes, 62% for CST.
• Eastern Pacific: Below-Normal Season Likely

• Central Pacific: Below-Normal Season Likely

Prediction for the Atlantic:

East Pacific:

Central Pacific:

Here is the Atlantic today....nothing.

So far, only Alex, Bonnie and Colin.  The Eastern Pacific has so far been a lot more active.  

Howard as of this morning was barely a Category 1, and is expected to soon weaken way before getting close to Hawaii.  So the East Pacific has had 8 named storms, with Ivette next.

Agatha Blas Celia Darby Estelle Frank Georgette Howard (active)

Ivette (unused) Javier (unused) Kay (unused) Lester (unused) Madeline (unused) Newton (unused) Orlene (unused) Paine (unused)

Roslyn (unused) Seymour (unused) Tina (unused) Virgil (unused) Winifred (unused) Xavier (unused) Yolanda (unused) Zeke (unused)

The Atlantic, only three, with Danielle next

But latest data seem to indicate that the Atlantic is now showing signs of becoming more activity:

So keep watching for any strengthening of Invest 97L, for it could become a tropical depression this week, then...Danielle?  The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season begins in mid-August, and runs through mid-October, with September 10 the official peak.  Both NOAA and CSU still say that the Atlantic is on track to be more active.  Here is the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale mentioned by forecasters:

We are one catastrophic season from adding a Category 6, for 30 years ago only 12% of typhoons in the western North Pacific reached the super typhoon category of 150 miles per hour, today, it's up to 24%.  Further:

• Just in the North Atlantic there have been 23 hurricanes at 150 MPH or more, with Allen in 1980 getting up to 190 MPH.
• There were 8 from 1924 to 1980, and 11 since 2000.
• Your would think that there have been more "Category 6" typhoons in the Eastern Pacific, but only 19 are listed.  However, they all came since 1973, with Patricia in 2015 reaching 215 MPH.

In the USA we most remember the 2005 Hurricane Katrina, with a damage estimate  $186.3 billion and 1833 deaths.  But what is worse?  Deaths?  Katrina does not rank at all. Deaths:

• #1  Great Bhola Cyclone, Bangladesh  1970  300,000-500,000, and maybe 1.5 million
• #2  Hooghly River Cyclone, India/Bangladesh  1737  300,000
• #3  Haiphong Typhoon, Vietnam  1881  300,000
• #4-#7 all in India/Bangladesh, from 300,000 to 175,000
• #10  Cyclone Nargis, Myanmar  2008  138,366

Hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones are all oceans storms, and called so depending on location.  

• This status occurs at 74 MPH.
• In the northern hemisphere, they rotate counterclockwise and move westward.
• In the southern hemisphere, they rotate clockwise and move eastward.
• 
  All this rotation has to do with something called the Coriolis Effect.
• You ever wonder why you never hear of South Atlantic hurricanes?
• Hurricane Catarina in 2004 is the only recorded South Atlantic hurricane, and reached Category 2 in the month of March, making landfall over Brazil, killing 3-10 people.
• Strong vertical wind shear in the troposphere deters them in this region.
• 
  No tropical cyclone has ever affected the Pacific side of South America.  But they would move away if they formed anyway.
• A second reason is that the ocean temperature needs to reach at least 79F, or 80F, which does not occur.  In the northern Pacific and Atlantic, warm currents cause these conditions.  Interesting that the ocean temperature was lower than 79F when Catarina formed.

• 
  The Blue Revolution contention of reducing or preventing hurricanes and typhoons is based on the cooling effect of the deep ocean water brought to the surface.

A final issue.  Will global warming increase the number and intensity of tropical cyclones.  The general contention is yes.  Any common sense will tell you that, like the atmosphere, the oceans too will warm.  The balance is delicate.  There are no such ocean storms during the winter.  But how will wind shear be affected?  There are a some unknowns that need to analyzed.  Here is the how our oceans are warming:

I'll close with a photo taken in 2020 of six tropical cyclones swirling in the East Pacific and Atlantic, Karina, Sally, Paulette, Rene, Teddy and Vicky.

-