From Worldometer (new COVID-19 deaths yesterday):
DAY USA WORLD Brazil India South Africa
June 9 1093 4732 1185 246 82
July 22 1205 7128 1293 1120 572
Aug 12 1504 6556 1242 835 130
Sept 9 1208 6222 1136 1168 82
Oct 21 1225 6849 571 703 85
Nov 25 2304 12025 620 518 118
Dec 30 3880 14748 1224 299 465
Jan 14 4142 15512 1151 189 712
Feb 3 4005 14265 1209 107 398
Mar 2 1989 9490 1726 110 194
April 6 906 11787 4211 631 37
May 4 853 13667 3025 3786 59
June 1 287 10637 2346 3205 95
July 7 251 8440 1595 817 411
Aug 4 656 10120 1118 532 423
Sept 22 2228 9326 839 279 124
Oct 6 2102 8255 543 315 59
Nov 3 1436 7830 186 458 23
Dec 1 1633 8475 266 477 28
Jan 7 2025 6729 148 285 140
Feb 2 2990 12012 946 991 175
Mar 2 1778 7756 335 173 28
Apr 1 439 4056 290 52 12
May 5 225 2404 151 ? 64
June 2 216 1413 130 10 31
July 7 320 1958 297 38 9
Aug 4 311 2138 258 70 ?
10 429 2400 254 53 ?
11 290 1994 173 49 ?
17 461 2502 246 72 ?
18 264 1950 202 ? ?
Summary:
- We seem to be stuck with about the same new deaths/day for nearly five months now.
- Highest number of new cases yesterday:
- #1 Japan 208,483
- #2 South Korea 178,480
- #3 USA 68,979
- #4 Germany 46,724
- #5 Russia 35,809
As bad as that number is for Japan, I just saw the latest tally for today: 255,532 new cases, an all-time record.
- Note the number of new deaths at 287, which exceeds that of the U.S. with 264. Actually comparing the data for Thursday, Japan had 300 deaths, with the U.S. #2 and Brazil #3.
- That article indicated that this pandemic led to 8,000 more suicides in Japan between March 2020 and June 2022 than would have been expected. Women in their 20's showed the highest rise.
- There were fewer marriages during this pandemic, which means that there will be 243,000 fewer babies.
- Individual tourists, of course, are still not allowed into the country.
- But locals are still traveling a lot, as train stations, airports and expressways were crowded this past Sunday for those returning from their summer vacation.
- Worse, the summer holiday season just began yesterday, and domestic train and flight reservations leaving Tokyo are at peak for the first time in three years.
- Only 16% of residents have received two boosters.
Back to politics today, Democrat pundits seem alarmed that Donald Trump was able to shepherd his candidates to victory in the primaries. From the New York Times.
Data up to Aug. 15. Based on initial endorsements and excludes uncontested candidates and Trump-endorsed incumbents. | The New Y |
I look upon "his" victories with glee. All those experts on TV focus their attention to the Trump base of support.
- Prognosticators generally say that the Senate will lean in the Republican direction, while the House will definitely go Republican.
- Then there are others, such as FiveThirtyEight's forecast, indicating a 61% chance of Democrats prevailing in the Senate. This has been the recent trend, affected by those inflammable issues favoring Democrats.
- Yet, 538 says there is an 87% chance of Republicans taking over the House. How did they get that number? They ran a range of scenarios 100 times:
- Trump's popularity with his base remains solid, and will be strong at least into the general elections on 8 November 2022.
- However, at best they might represent 80% of Republicans, and should be much lower.
- The latest Gallup poll showed: 28% Republicans, 29% Democrats and 41% Independents.
- 89% of 28% is only 22.4% strong Trump supporters.
- The percent of strong Trumpers in the Democrat Party is close to zero.
- The percent of strong Trumpers who are Independent has to be less than 50%. 50% of 41% is 21%.
- At best, the total is less than 50%, and actually much lower because I can't imagine that 80% of Republicans and 50% of Independents are pro-Trump.
- Another way of looking at this is that 10% of Republicans are sensible enough to react negatively to the Trump-effect.
- Add perhaps 20% of Independents dismayed by his troubles, antics and morality, and you will have a situation in November where a Democrat running against a Trump-supported candidate, in a normally tight race, will overwhelm the Republican.
- There are few states dominantly Republican. A good example is Wyoming, where Liz Cheney lost to Harriet Hageman. However, that is because Republicans are 71% of the voters in that state, and most of them were pro-Trump. Democrats only represent 15% of voters. Hageman should prevail over Democrat Lynette Grey Bull, who is a full-blooded Native American.
- Until recently, all those news shows on television underscored that since World War II, the party out of power had dominated 17 to 2 in the mid-term elections, and there was no chance that Democrats could retain Congressional leadership on November 8. I've long said that Democrats would remain in control after the primaries because of the Trump-effect. Now those inflammable issues and Biden's Congressional triumphs are only adding to my optimism.
Finally, if Donald Trump runs for president in 2024, he will have a sharp thorn in his rear if Cheney conducts a smart campaign against him on November 5, 2024. All she needs to do is garner a few percent of the Republican votes, and that will doom his chances. But her better path to the presidency might be to run as an Independent. Read my blog of a month ago. Of course, by then he might be in jail or totally discredited. Here is an incomplete list:
- Department of Justice against Trump for mishandling confidential records.
- House January 6 Committee proceedings.
- DoJ vs Trump for the 6January2020 coup attempt.
- Wire fraud.
- Georgia election tampering.
- New York criminal and civil inquiries.
- E. Jean Carroll's defamation case regarding rape.
In short, I still think that the combination of the Trump-effect, abortion, global warming, gun rights and the improving economy, influencing the Republican and Independent margins, will make the difference for Democrats adding to their current advantage of 8 seats in the House, and raising their current 50-50 tie to 52-48, if not 54-46, in the Senate. Read my analysis.
I end with some nostalgia.
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