HOW DONALD TRUMP WILL DOOM REPUBLICANS ON 8 NOVEMBER 2022

          From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

    DAY   USA  WORLD    Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9     1093     4732         1185        246       82

July    22      1205     7128         1293      1120     572

Aug    12      1504     6556        1242        835     130

Sept     9      1208      6222       1136       1168       82

Oct     21      1225      6849         571        703       85

Nov    25       2304    12025        620        518      118

Dec    30       3880    14748       1224       299      465

Jan     14       4142      15512        1151        189      712

Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398

Mar      2       1989     9490        1726       110      194

April     6        906    11787         4211       631       37

May     4        853     13667        3025      3786     59 

June    1        287    10637         2346      3205      95

 July    7         251      8440        1595        817      411

Aug     4         656    10120        1118        532      423 

Sept   22      2228      9326          839       279     124

Oct      6       2102      8255          543       315       59

Nov    3        1436      7830         186        458       23

Dec     1       1633      8475          266        477       28

Jan     7        2025      6729         148         285     140

Feb     2        2990   12012          946        991      175

Mar     2        1778     7756          335         173       28 

Apr     1         439      4056         290         52        12

May    5         225      2404        151            ?        64 

June    2        216      1413          130          10        31 

July    7         320       1958        297          38         9 

Aug   4         311        2138          258          70         ? 

         10        429       2400        254          53         ?

         11         290       1994         173          49         ?

        17          461       2502         246         72         ?

        18          264      1950         202           ?         ?

Summary:

• We seem to be stuck with about the same new deaths/day for nearly five months now.
• Highest number of new cases yesterday:
• #1  Japan  208,483
• #2  South Korea  178,480
• #3  USA  68,979
• #4  Germany  46,724
• #5  Russia  35,809

As bad as that number is for Japan, I just saw the latest tally for today:  255,532 new cases, an all-time record.

• Note the number of new deaths at 287, which exceeds that of the U.S. with 264.  Actually comparing the data for Thursday, Japan had 300 deaths, with the U.S. #2 and Brazil #3.
• That article indicated that this pandemic led to 8,000 more suicides in Japan between March 2020 and June 2022 than would have been expected.  Women in their 20's showed the highest rise.
• There were fewer marriages during this pandemic, which means that there will be 243,000 fewer babies.
• Individual tourists, of course, are still not allowed into the country.
• But locals are still traveling a lot, as train stations, airports and expressways were crowded this past Sunday for those returning from their summer vacation.
• Worse, the summer holiday season just began yesterday, and domestic train and flight reservations leaving Tokyo are at peak for the first time in three years.
• Only 16% of residents have received two boosters.

Back to politics today, Democrat pundits seem alarmed that Donald Trump was able to shepherd his candidates to victory in the primaries.  From the New York Times.

Data up to Aug. 15. Based on initial endorsements and excludes uncontested candidates and Trump-endorsed incumbents. | The New Y

I look upon "his" victories with glee.  All those experts on TV focus their attention to the Trump base of support.  

• Prognosticators generally say that the Senate will lean in the Republican direction, while the House will definitely go Republican.
• Then there are others, such as FiveThirtyEight's forecast, indicating a 61% chance of Democrats prevailing in the Senate.  This has been the recent trend, affected by those inflammable issues favoring Democrats.
• Yet, 538 says there is an 87% chance of Republicans taking over the House.  How did they get that number?  They ran a range of scenarios 100 times:

All these prognosticators should be looking at the margins:

• Trump's popularity with his base remains solid, and will be strong at least into the general elections on 8 November 2022.
• However, at best they might represent 80% of Republicans, and should be much lower.
• The latest Gallup poll showed:  28% Republicans, 29% Democrats and 41% Independents.
• 89% of 28% is only 22.4% strong Trump supporters.
• The percent of strong Trumpers in the Democrat Party is close to zero.
• The percent of strong Trumpers who are Independent has to be less than 50%.  50% of 41% is 21%.  
• At best, the total is less than 50%, and actually much lower because I can't imagine that 80% of Republicans and 50% of Independents are pro-Trump.
• 
  Another way of looking at this is that 10% of Republicans are sensible enough to react negatively to the Trump-effect.
• Add perhaps 20% of Independents dismayed by his troubles, antics and morality, and you will have a situation in November where a Democrat running against a Trump-supported candidate, in a normally tight race, will overwhelm the Republican.
• 
  There are few states dominantly Republican.  A good example is Wyoming, where Liz Cheney lost to Harriet Hageman.  However, that is because Republicans are 71% of the voters in that state, and most of them were pro-Trump.  Democrats only represent 15% of voters.  Hageman should prevail over Democrat Lynette Grey Bull, who is a full-blooded Native American.

• 
  Until recently, all those news shows on television underscored that since World War II, the party out of power had dominated 17 to 2 in the mid-term elections, and there was no chance that Democrats could retain Congressional leadership on November 8.  I've long said that Democrats would remain in control after the primaries because of the Trump-effect.   Now those inflammable issues and Biden's Congressional triumphs are only adding to my optimism.

Finally, if Donald Trump runs for president in 2024, he will have a sharp thorn in his rear if Cheney conducts a smart campaign against him on November 5, 2024.  All she needs to do is garner a few percent of the Republican votes, and that will doom his chances.  But her better path to the presidency might be to run as an Independent.  Read my blog of a month ago.  Of course, by then he might be in jail or totally discredited.  Here is an incomplete list:

• 
  Department of Justice against Trump for mishandling confidential records.
• House January 6 Committee proceedings.
• DoJ vs Trump for the 6January2020 coup attempt.
• Wire fraud.
• Georgia election tampering.
• New York criminal and civil inquiries.
• E. Jean Carroll's defamation case regarding rape.

In short, I still think that the combination of the Trump-effect, abortion, global warming, gun rights and the improving economy, influencing the Republican and Independent margins, will make the difference for Democrats adding to their current advantage of 8 seats in the House, and raising their current 50-50 tie to 52-48, if not 54-46, in the Senate.  Read my analysis.

I end with some nostalgia.

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