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ENERGY WEDNESDAY

        From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

DAY  USA  WORLD    Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9     1093     4732         1185        246       82
July    22      1205     7128         1293      1120     572
Aug    12      1504     6556        1242        835     130
Sept     9      1208      6222       1136       1168       82
Oct     21      1225      6849         571        703       85
Nov    25       2304    12025        620        518      118
Dec    30       3880    14748       1224       299      465
Jan     14       4142      15512        1151        189      712
Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398
Mar      2       1989     9490        1726       110      194
April     6        906    11787         4211       631       37
May     4        853     13667        3025      3786     59 
June    1        287    10637         2346      3205      95
 July    7         251      8440        1595        817      411
Aug     4         656    10120        1118        532      423 
Sept   22      2228      9326          839       279     124
Oct      6       2102      8255          543       315       59
Nov    3        1436      7830         186        458       23
Dec     1       1633      8475          266        477       28
Jan     7        2025      6729         148         285     140
Feb     2        2990   12012          946        991      175
Mar     2        1778     7756          335         173       28 
Apr     1          439      4056         290         52        12
May    5          225      2404        151            ?        64 
June    2         216      1413          130          10        31 
July    7          320       1958        297          38         9 
        14          231       1721           292          47         8 
        21          367       2063         351          45         4
        27          397       2326         308         44         5
        28          260       2088         276         47       10 
Aug   2           363       2047         271          47         ?

Summary:
  • Nothing much has changed from last week.
  • New cases yesterday (with new cases/million population in the parentheses)
    • #1      Japan  167,678 (1331)
    • #2      S. Korea  111,700 (2173)
    • #3      Germany  87,681 (1040)
    • #4      Italy  65,196 (1083)
    • #5      USA  61,162 (183)  
    • #9      Taiwan  23,529 (980)
    • #12    Singapore  10,230 (1734)
    • #16    New Zealand  7382 (1476)
    • #40    Thailand  1843 (26)
    • #55    UAE  1032 (103)
    • #83    China 107 (0.07)
    • I especially included countries on our Fall trip.
    • Not sure when we were that low in ranking.  Note, though, that we had an infection rate around 1/12 that of S. Korea.
      • As terrible as the COVID situation is in S. Korea, tourists are allowed, but need to show a negative test within 2 days of entering.
      • No mandatory quarantine.
      • Additionally must test negative within 24 hours of arrival.
    • Of those countries above, Singapore had the second highest new cases/million rate.  However, tourists remain welcome, after showing proof of vaccination.  No negative test requirement.
    • Japan allows visitors on organized tours, but only a very few are coming.  
      • Tour companies are super cautious.  
      • No sign of possible relaxation for solo travelers. 
      • Okinawa has been the worst stricken prefecture for many weeks.  They are these days daily suffering at around 2500 new cases/million, which is worse than even South Korea.  
      • Hawaii is among the worst U.S. states, but we are  ten times lower in new cases/million than Okinawa.
    • Notice that China, #83 in new cases/million with a rate of 0.07, is almost 3000 times lower than the USA.  The USA is open to anyone.  China is the most isolated, preventing entrance of foreigners.  So don't think of going there any time soon.

The primaries yesterday insured for the continued control of Congress by Democrats.  A lot of Trump-supported victories and the spark of how important the abortion issue will be on November 8.  Tomorrow, why Republicans won't have the tsunami they were expecting.

I was contemplating on my professional past and realized that I have had no experience in fossil fuels and fission energy.  These two provide nearly 88% of the energy used in the country today.

  • Sixty years ago my first job was in biomass engineering.  Well, it was an engineer in a sugar cane processing factory.  
  • Then when I started my University of Hawaii career, I suddenly found myself growing marine algae in a raceway, with carbon dioxide from a generator to mimic the effectiveness of this option to combat climate warming, while producing a biofuel.  
  • Immediately came the energy crisis of 1973 when I also became part of the Hawaii Geothermal Project.  
  • Then for the next few years I had summer assignments at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory on laser fusion.  
  • In 1979 I was part of the congressional staff team that marshaled the first wind energy bill, and I drafted legislation on OTEC and hydrogen that became law.  
  • Returning to the University of Hawaii in 1982 I also ventured into solar photovoltaics, plus methanol and electric vehicles.
  • I led teams in macrobiotechnology and algology.
  • But no oil, natural gas, coal and nuclear fission on my record.
Maybe because of my lack of knowledge, I was surprised by some of the microdots of information below from the energy media.  While the biggest shocks are with the fossil fuels, there are others.

So to begin, Honolulu will be shutting down it's dirtiest power plant on September 1, the AES 203 megawatt coal-fired facility after 30 years of service.  With this comes the end of coal in Hawaii.  The plant now provides 11% of our island electricity with coal from Indonesia.

From Time magazine:

  • China is terrible, where the growth was 9%.
  • India was worse at 12%.
  • Of course, the USA and EU are good citizens and are quickly shifting to the renewables, right?  Not at all!  The COAL jump since 2020 is almost 20%!!!  We are double the villains of China and India.
  • Can you believe that, as tarnished as China's reputation is regarding coal, their per capita emission is half of the USA?
  • India set a net zero goal for 2070, and will produce more renewable energy electricity than the current capacity of their grid by 2030.
  • China is expected to account for 43% of all new renewable energy capacity over the next five years!
Here is the latest from ENERGY MATTERS by the American Energy Society.
  • During the past year the average price of natural gas has nearly doubled.
  • A year ago the price of WTI crude was $71/barrel.  Today, $91/barrel, a 28% increase.  Actually, Brent and Murban crude were at $97/barrel, so the increase is  a bit higher than that.
  • In 2021, global coal-fired power set an all-time record of 10,244 terawatt-hours, which will be shattered this year
    • This publication said that 70% of the growth will come from China and India.
    • Further, the U.S. will reduce coal use 5%.
    • This is the problem with statistics.  You can turn them into your favor or not.  Both Time and the American Energy Society said the same thing, in a manner that confuses the issue.
  • German Chancellor Olaf Scholz supports keeping nuclear plants in operation.  There is, after all, that Ukraine War and problem with Russia's supply of natural gas.
  • Popular support for nuclear power in the USA is at an all-time high.  California is getting ready to keep Diablo Canyon's nuclear reactor in service by providing funds.  
  • These are the countries most reliant on nuclear power.  Must only include Europe, for the USA is not shown, for we are at 19%, which is 1% less than from renewables.
  • Total worldwide offshore windpower capacity = 35,300 megawatts.  With UK at 29% share China 28% and Germany 22%.  The 1200 MW Hornsea Project of the UK is the largest.  Here is where offshore windpower looks good...the dark redder the better.
  • Heatwaves:

  • Britain recorded its highest temperature ever (40.2 C, or 104.4 F), and Portugal did, too (47 C or 117 F).
  • China: heat and flooding are forcing masses of people to relocate ... and a museum roof melted.  Portions of the country are facing unprecedented temperatures.
  • Northern India: In May, temperatures reached 49°C (120°F), a record that has been broken many times since.
  • The heat wave in Japan is its worst on record (in terms of heat, intentsity and duration).
  • Texas: Extreme high temperatures are straining ERCOT.  What is ERCOT?  I think Electric Reliability Council of Texas.

  • Communities that replace dark surfaces — like streets, rooftops, playgrounds and parking lots — with lighter and cooler alternatives can lower "heat island" temperatures by 5°F, and the overall total can feel up to 15°F cooler.
  • We just passed that mark,: July 28th is Earth Overshoot Day    , the date each year when humanity has used all the biological resources that Earth regenerates during that year.  In 2021, Earth Overshoot Day was July 29th.

  • Valero Energy Corp, Marathon Petroleum Corp. and Phillips 66, the three largest independent refiners in the U.S., will set all-time cash records for the third quarter of this year.
  • Because the value of the Yen has dropped, the price of oil this year shows an increase of 70% in Japan.  The USA?  Only +40%.
  • Bad enough that there is a lot of methane leaking out of home appliances, but recent research has detected 21 toxins/carcinogens like benzene and hexane from natural gas.  However, this risk is less than from secondhand smoke from cigarettes.
  • People in Texas might not realize it until they see their electricity bill, but the price instantly jumped for short periods up to $4/kWh this summer.  The usual price is from 4 cents to 7 cents / kWh.  Hawaii is as bad as it gets with a range of 30 cents to 40 cents/kWh.
  • Think you're having a hot summer in Phoenix?  Be thankful that you can remain comfortable.  The annual per capita income in India is about 91,000 rupees ($1183).  The average cost of an air conditioner (that is, the electricity cost) is about 22,000 rupees ($286)/year.  That is about one-fourth of their annual income.
  • I can go on and on....but enough is enough.
The beauty of mathematics:


Day 15 of Blood Lily batch 1, Day 2 of BL2 and BL 3/4 on lanai:

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