CENTAURUS: The Next dangerous COVID-19 Omicron Subvariant, or a Mere Scariant?

The path of COVID-19 reminds me of a rollercoaster, now on wave #8, I think. The current phase is 4 times lower in deaths/day than the peak that came in February of this year, and almost 6 times below the high that occurred in January of 2021. In new cases/day, the highest number of new cases/day occurred on January of this year at around 4 million/day, with the highest in this current phase 3 times lower at around 1.35 million/day.

From all reports, the COVID-19 Omicron subvariant BA.5 could be the most infectious virus known to man. Measles? Maybe now in second place.

The original Wuhan strain had a reproductive rate (known as Ro or R-naught value) of 3.3, meaning that each infected person would infect 3.3 others.
The 1918 Spanish Flu, for example, was only 2.0.
Mumps =12 and measles = 18.
The Delta variant? 5.1.
The first Omicron, BA.1 = 9.5.
Then came the stealth Omicron = 13.3.
Now, both BA.4 and BA.5 = 18.6.

Now comes Centaurus, BA.2.75. Reproductive rate? Still unknown, but suspected to be higher than BA.5.

A month ago BA.2.75 began surging through India. The fear was this strain would be able to spread more rapidly and get around existing immunities and vaccinations.

But on July 19 the Business Standard of India reported: Covid: Omicron sub-variant BA.2.75 not as dangerous as "hyped." On July 22 Becker's Hospital Review corroborated, with BA.2.75 a "Scarient," not the next variant to worry about. Whew.

Then, on August 10 Medical Life Sciences News said that BA.2.75 shows signs of being more contagious than BA.5. In addition this strain is more immune resistance than other variants.

On the same day, Nature again asked the question: Will Centaurus be the next global coronavirus variant?

Cases rising in India, but the hospitalization rates are low.
20 countries now have this BA2.75 subvariant.
BA.5 and BA.2.75 have similar capacities to dodge immunity conferred by infection and vaccination.
But BA.2.75 seems to be more contagious.
There was a sense that this subvariant might well be contained in India.

Both Moderna and Pfizer announced a new booster to be made available in September, specifically to protect us from BA.4 and BA.5. But will this vaccine also prevent or protect us from BA.2.75? Not yet known, but if you look at the evolution of these subvariants, you would think at least maybe because they all spawned from BA.2.

Regarding this second booster, I'll be early in line for the 105 million doses of Pfizer and 66 million of Moderna already ordered. Any more will require additional funding from Congress.

Here is an update on who is eligible for what. A big problem is that any vaccine loses effectiveness after the last shot in five months, or less. Earlier this month, only about a third of Americans had received their first booster shot. 65% are eligible. Worse, 21% had not received any vaccine dose, and and only 34% of 61 million eligible have taken their second shot (the one before the first booster). In other words, 75% of Americans are considered NOT UP TO DATE. I continue to be mystified as to why.

Need to end with something nicer.

HONOLULU TO SEATTLE

The story of the day is Hurricane Milton, now a Category 4 at 145 MPH, with a track that has moved further south and the eye projected to make landfall just south of Sarasota. Good news for Tampa, which is 73 miles north. Milton will crash into Florida as a Category 4, and is huge, so a lot of problems can still be expected in Tampa Bay with storm surge. If the eye had crossed into the state just north of Tampa, the damage would have been catastrophic. Milton is a fast-moving storm, currently at 17 MPH, so as bad as the rainfall will be over Florida, again, a blessing. The eye will make landfall around 10PM EDT today, and will move into the Atlantic Ocean north of Palm Bay Thursday morning. My first trip to Seattle was in June of 1962 just after I graduated from Stanford University. Caught a bus. Was called the Century 21 Exposition . Also the Seattle World's Fair. 10 million joined me on a six-month run. My first. These a...

OSAKA EXPO: Day One

Well, the day finally came for us to go to the Osaka Expo. We were told ahead of time that the long walks would be fearful, giant lines will need to be tolerated just to get into the Expo, with those ocean breezes, it would really be cold, and so forth. Maybe it was pure luck, but we avoided all the above warnings We had a grand day, and are looking forward to Sunday, our second day at the Expo. So come along for an enjoyable ride. Our hotel is adjacent to the Tennoji Station, a very large one with several lines. We upgraded our Suica card and caught the Misosuji red line towards Umeda. Transferred to the Chuo green line at the Hommachi Station. This Osaka Metro train took us to the Yumeshima Station at the Expo site. It was a very large mob leaving the train and heading to the entrance. Took only a few minutes to get to the entrance. This mob was multiplied by at least a factor of ten of those already waiting to enter. However...

THE BULLET TRAIN

Japan had the first bullet train more than 60 years ago. It was 10October1964, when the opening ceremony was held in Tokyo in anticipation of Japan's first-ever Olympic Games, which began that day. The Shinkansen, meaning new mainline , with a separate track, arrived when normal train traffic had reached the limit for carrying passengers and freight. A train trip between Osaka and Tokyo dropped from 6 hours and 40 minutes to 4 hours, shortened to 3 hours and 10 minutes by 1964, and is now 2 hours and 30 minutes. From the Shin-Osaka Station to the Shin-Yokohama Station only takes a little more than 2 hours. In 1964 the track was 320 miles long. Today, it's up to 1484 miles. The original itinerary incorporating Tokyo, Nagoya and Osaka now carries 159 million passengers/year. In this 6 decade period, more than 10 billion passengers have been safely handled. CAN YOU BELIEVE THAT NOT ONE PASSENGER HAS YET BEEN KILLED IN A DERA...

Search This Blog