When I worked as a staff member of the U.S. Senate, the most emotional issue had to do with abortion rights. Anti-abortion lobbyists were a lot more passionate, sometimes giving out roses for their cause.
How significant is all this?
- The New York Times indicated that abortion in the U.S. would decline by 14%.
- 26 states will probably ban abortions.
- In 1821 Connecticut passed the first anti-abortion ruling in the U.S. leading to all 37 states banning abortion in 1900.
- In 1969 two Texas attorneys, Sarah Weddington (top left) and Linda Coffee (bottom), represented 21-year old Norma McCorvey (top right) in seeking abortion of her third child, which was nevertheless born in 1970 and adopted.
- Soon following, Coffee and Weddington filed a suit in Texas on behalf of McCorvey, under the legal pseudonym Jane ROE, where the defendant was Dallas Country District Attorney Henry WADE (right).
- The court declined to grant an injunction against enforcing the law, and the case went to the Supreme Court.
- By 1971 several states, including Hawaii, made elective abortion available.
- A Supreme Court decision of 7-2 49 years ago (1973), ruled that the U.S. Constitution protected a pregnant women's liberty to choose to have an abortion without excessive government restriction.
- The Supreme Court revisited the case in a 1992 decision, Planned Parenthood v. Casey, and ended up actually making it easier for women to get an abortion. Casey is the Pennsylvania Governor Robert Casey who was behind this case in his state.
- This was totally unexpected, for by then there were 8 Republican-appointed justices, leaving only one Democrat appointment.
- The then Bush administration urged the Court to overturn Roe v. Wade.
- Now Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito in those days sat on that particular Court of Appeals and sided with the anti-abortionists. He is the one whose draft was leaked.
- The 1992 Supreme Court was amazingly bipartisan in decision-making.
- The 2022 Supreme Court is almost totally partisan, and Roe v. Wade will be repealed.
- The economy/inflation, Ukraine war, immigration and other issues will continue to be important, but this sudden abortion banning decision will further:
- Convert perhaps 5% more Independents to vote Democratic.
- Convert perhaps 5% more Republicans to either not vote or vote for a Democrat.
- The specter of Trump will further weaken several Republican candidates in November.
- First, as he appointed three Conservatives to the Supreme Court, part of the blame on what happened will be placed on him.
- Sure, this will seem like victory for Republicans, but those feeling so would vote Republican anyway. The fringe Republicans and Independents will make a significant difference in favor of a Democrat.
- More than this Supreme Court decision to come, just his awful character and January 6 attempt to illegally stay in power will sway a sufficient number of votes away from anyone getting his support to run against the Democrat.
- Mind you, I haven't seen any particular pundit advocating this attitude today. I think in time much of what I'm saying above will prevail, to be confirmed by those votes on November 8.
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