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SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED ABOUT MONKEYPOX?

From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

          DAY  USA  WORLD    Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9     1093     4732         1185        246       82
July    22      1205     7128         1293      1120     572
Aug    12      1504     6556        1242        835     130
Sept     9      1208      6222       1136       1168       82
Oct     21      1225      6849         571        703       85
Nov    25       2304    12025        620        518      118
Dec    30       3880    14748       1224       299      465
Jan     14        4142    15512        1151         189      712
Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398
Mar      2       1989     9490        1726       110      194
April     6        906    11787         4211       631       37
May     4        853     13667        3025      3786     59 
June    1        287    10637         2346      3205      95
 July    7         251      8440        1595        817      411
Aug     4         656    10120        1118         532      423 
Sept   22      2228      9326          839       279     124
Oct      6       2102      8255          543       315       59
Nov    3        1436      7830         186        458       23
Dec     1       1633      8475          266        477       28
Jan     7        2025      6729         148         285     140
Feb     2        2990   12012          946        991      175
Mar     2        1778     7756          335         173       28 
Apr     1          439      4056         290          52       12
May    5          225      2404          151            ?       64 
         12          222      1995           136           9       21
         18          273      1734            99          10       55

Summary:
  • Worldometer added the DPRK to their list.  How can a country such as North Korea have the official name of Democratic People's Republic of Korea?  Anyhoo, they yesterday were listed as #1 in new COVID-19 cases with 232,890, or 8957 new cases/million population.
    • #2 was the U.S. with 103,958 (311 new cases/million).
    • #3  Taiwan  84,398 (3516 new cases/million).
    • #4  Germany  64,582 (766/million).
    • #5  Australia  56,259 (2163/million).
    • World  779,624 (98.7).
    • China  240 (0.2).
      • Other sources say this figure should be closer to 1000.
      • But who really takes that figure too seriously, for China doesn't count asymptomatic cases, and this figure is in the range of 98%, making the 240 cases 12,000, or still a quite low 8.3 new cases/million.  
        • Recent data seems to indicate that 95% is closer to their asymptomatic rate, which is more than double the figure of the CDC for the U.S.
        • Any tests taken more recently would of course show much higher asymptomaticity because of vaccinations and previous infections.
      • However, both Shanghai and Beijing remain in lockdown status.  Not sure about today, but a month ago 45 cities with 370 million people were in this state, which rose to 400 million two weeks ago.  The population of the USA is 334 million.
  • The Worldometer data can also be adjusted to show something like COVID deaths/million:
    • World  808
    • USA  3072
    • Various countries in Europe are in the 3000 to 6000 range, with Bulgaria at 5411.
    • Same for South America, with Peru showing 6,298.
    • African countries and India don't report all their deaths.
    • Many countries in Oceania and Asia are now been besieged with new cases, but the death rate more recently has dropped, so, for example, today in terms of deaths/million:
      • Japan  240
      • Australia  304
      • Thailand  422
      • Philippines  538
      • Singapore 232
      • New Zealand  193
      • Taiwan  43
      • China  4

WARNING:  for the more squeamish, a couple of the upcoming photos will not be pleasant.  You may wish to return tomorrow for a more pleasant experience.

While COVID-19 deaths are showing signs of easing off, monkeypox is spreading.  

  • First found in the crab-eating macaque (right).  Monkeys of this type had this new kind of pox in 1958, with the initial human case in 1970.  Carriers are squirrels, pouched rats and dormice, a rodent.  Initially came from Zaire.  Similar to chickenpox.  There are also camelpox and cowpox.
  • Smallpox, incidentally was once a terrible disease, estimated to have killed up to 500 million in the 20th century.  Also caused blindness and killed 80% in infected children.  However, WHO certified global eradication in 1979, the first, and only disease to be so declared.
  • In the 1980's the Democratic Republic of Congo suffered from 14 cases per 10,000 people.  There were 4600 cases in 2020.
  • There is a danger in Africa, for smallpox shots are not given anymore, and these were immunizing people from monkeypox.
  • Turns out that only in 2019 a monkeypox vaccine was approved for adults in the U.S.   Called Imnavex in Europe and Jynneos in the U.S.  Apparently, smallpox vaccines also work.
  • There are no specific treatments.  
  • The mortality rate is 10% (or less than 1%, depending of source).  Authorities remain puzzled about the COVID rate because of so many asymptomatic cases, but COVID today is around 1%, and should considerably drop in the final analysis.

So should you be worried about monkeypox?

  • Not really, but it's possible that this virus is mutating and now attacking using other mechanisms.
  • Less than 100 cases so far in 2020.
  • Only a minor outbreak in Europe...UK, Spain and Portugal.
  • One just popped up in Massachusetts.  First since last year, when there were two cases in the U.S.
  • Females don't seem to get infected this time.
  • However, in 2003 several pouched rats (right) were shipped from Ghana to Illinois, where prairie dogs from pet shops caught it and spread it to 47 Americans.  Everyone recovered.
  • Most of the cases in 2020 are men who had sex with other men.
  • In general, it is not nearly as contagious as COVID, for transmission occurs from prolonged face-to-face contact, and so forth.  However, Africa saw spread to health care workers even though they were wearing protective gear.
  • The more I read, the more I detect inconsistencies, and the more I think the world needs to be watchful about the potential of a future dangerous monkeypox variant.

I'll end with a system to feed young goats.  Note their tails.

- 

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