How bad are the numbers in the U.S. for new cases/day and new deaths/day? World Bank information for 2022:
- January 10 1.4 million new cases and 2,014 new deaths
- March 31 12,000 new cases and 516 new deaths
- May 11 163,335 new cases and 949 new deaths
- May 13 95,937 new cases and 393 new deaths
From Worldometer: for the U.S.
- Total cases two weeks ago 546,732
- Total cases the past week 498,640
- Weekly case % change -9%
- Total deaths two weeks ago 2,225
- Total deaths the past week 1,544
- Weekly death % change -31%
Other interesting info from that Worldometer site:
- #2 in cases was Germany. They dropped in cases 24% and deaths 2%
- #3 in cases was Taiwan. They jumped in cases 83% and deaths 192%
- #4 in cases was Australia. They increased in cases 20% and had no change in deaths
- #5 in cases was Japan. They increased in cases 54% and deaths 17%
- These countries increased in number of cases:
- Botswana 46,500%
- Maldives 31,200%
- Somalia 3,300%
- Liberia 1,700%
- Papua New Guinea 1,275%
- Nigeria 615%
- Hungary 209%
- Saudi Arabia 192%
- Malaysia 105%
- Argentina 93%
- Uruguay 281,700%??
- Malaysia 148,200%??
- These countries decreased in number of cases:
- Belarus -89%
- Switzerland -81%
- Mexico -76%
- Kuwait -64%
- UK -63%
- Sweden -49%
- World -1%
- These countries increased in the number of deaths:
- Bolivia 800%
- Bermuda 400%
- Bahamas 300%
- Uruguay 300%
- Venezuela 300%
- Samoa 300%
- Afghanistan 200%
- Botswana 200%
- Cuba 200%
- Taiwan 192%
- Barbados 145%
- Jamaica 145%
- Bahrain 100%
- Iceland 100%
- Ireland 64%
- South Africa 45%
- Israel 37%
- These countries decreased in the number of deaths
- Sweden -96%
- Ukraine -92%
- Costa Rica -85%
- Switzerland -83%
- Norway -75%
- UK -71%
- Czechia -64%
- Belgium -56%
- Hong Kong -55%
- Philippines -55%
- Iran -42%
- Argentina -38% (note that they increased in cases 200%)
- Finland -36%
- Vietnam -36%
- USA -31%
- South Korea -28%
- World -20%
So what do I make of the above?
- Europe is still in bad shape, but recovering.
- As much as there is a present scare of these Omicron subvariants increasing cases in the U.S., the above data shows that, a least compared to two weeks ago, the number of cases this past week dropped 9%. Plus, deaths dropped 31%.
- There are some scary outbreaks around the world:
- South America shows some really high numbers.
- The Caribbean is a basket case.
- There are signs that Africa is seriously increasing in number of new cases.
- Many countries in the Orient are getting worse.
- Worldwide, the number of cases dropped 1% from the week before, and deaths dropped 20%.
The coronavirus--spherical with unique surface projections--has been around for a long time. An ancestor has been traced back 55 million years, and evolved with bats and other avian species. However, it was not until the late 1920's that domesticated chickens began suffering from an acute respiratory infection. The first human version was discovered in 1961, the one causing the common cold. This virus was finally named in 1968.
- Range in diameter from 50 to 200 nanometers.
- There generally are 74 spikes, each 20 nm long.
- As of 2020 there were 45 species, six affecting humans.
- Most human coronaviruses have their origin in bats, but rodents are also included in some genera.
- The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2, SARS-CoV-2, caused an outbreak in 2003, initially from China. 8,000 people from 29 countries were infected, and 774 died. Thus the mortality or fatality rate was around 10%.
- Some of them, like the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome MERS-CoV, because the first case was in Saudi Arabia, came in 2012, with a camel link, and has infected 2494, causing 858 deaths, a rate of 34%. Fortunately, it is not so contagious.
- Others cause the common cold, although the rhinoviruses are responsible for most of the cases.
Then came SARS-CoV-2, or COVID-19, which began in Wuhan, China late in 2019, and became a pandemic in February of 2020, lingering on today.
- So far, 521 million cases and 6.3 million deaths, or a mortality rate of 1.2%.
- If the deaths are accurate, this eventual rate should fall to as low as 0.1% when all the asymptomatic cases are counted and most are vaccinated and boosted. Interestingly enough, this is the death rate of the seasonal flu.
The Wuhan strain has 70% genetic similarity to Sars-CoV-2, and they both have 96% similarity to a bat coronavirus.- Bats are immune to this virus.
- Researchers at Monash University in Australia are studying this phenomenon, hoping it can lead to human immunity.
- Alpha (B.1.1.7) was the first variant, appearing in Great Britain in November 2020.
- It was 30% to 50% more contagious than the original, came to the U.S. in mid-April of 2021, and soon became the dominant strain around the world.
- Was said to put more people into the hospital and deadlier compared to the original.
Around the end of 2020 Beta (B.1.351), which was 50% more contagious than the original, was identified in South Africa. Was said to be more deadly than Alpha. Vaccines were not as effective.- Delta (B.1.617.2) was first identified in India, also late in 2020, quickly spread throughout the world, and become the most prominent.
- It was 80% to 90% more transmissible than Alpha.
- In June 2021 it began to make an impact in the U.S., surging hospitalizations.
- Especially was dangerous for the unvaccinated, but seem to infect vaccinated people too, so boosters were recommended.
- Delta AY.4.2 became the most prominent mutation, and was 10% to 20% more contagious than Delta.
- Most affected the UK.
Omicron (BA.1).- Was first identified in Botswana and South Africa in late November of 2021.
- In December it was already causing havoc in the U.S.
- The Omicron subvariant BA.2 soon came, and was even more contagious, but less of a death threat.
- Said to be 4.2 times more transmissible than Delta.
Subvariants of BA. 2, BA.4, BA.5 and BA.2.12.1 followed.- These were even more contagious, but not as lethal, especially if vaccinated and boosted twice.
- BA.2.12.1 is becoming the dominant variant in the U.S., and is a supercharged BA.2, being 25% more transmissible.
- If you do the mathematics, we are now up to this latest subvariant being 20 times more transmissible than the original COVID-19 virus.
- Still though not as bad as the measles, which infects 90% of those in close contact and not immune. However, once you get it, immunity is lifetime.
- The new cases/day rate is increasing and is now at four times the level of the mid-March wave. However, this is a serious undercount because people are testing at home and not reporting.
- Hospitalizations are also increasing, now double what it was in April. However, ICU beds are now only rarely used.
- Those who are fully vaccinated and boosted twice are reasonably safe, at least from severe illness and death.
- But there is that nasty long haul prospect.
- Those who are unvaccinated are in danger because fewer and fewer people are now wearing masks.
- If you test positive, there are remedies at little or no cost to you.
- Paxlovid, a 5-day course of pills from Pfizer. This reduces hospitalization and death for the unvaccinated by nearly 90%.
- Remdesivir or monoclonal antibody infusions will also work, but this reduced hospitalization only by 30%.
Closing with Imagine.
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