HOW YOU CAN BEST AVOID BECOMING A COVID-19 LONG HAULER

From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

          DAY  USA  WORLD    Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9     1093     4732         1185        246       82

July    22      1205     7128         1293      1120     572

Aug    12      1504     6556        1242        835     130

Sept     9      1208      6222       1136       1168       82

Oct     21      1225      6849         571        703       85

Nov    25       2304    12025        620        518      118

Dec    30       3880    14748       1224       299      465

Jan     14        4142    15512        1151         189      712

Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398

Mar      2       1989     9490        1726       110      194

April     6        906    11787         4211       631       37

May     4        853     13667        3025      3786     59 

June    1        287    10637         2346      3205      95

 July    7         251      8440        1595        817      411

Aug     4         656    10120        1118         532      423 

Sept   22      2228      9326          839        279     124

Oct      6       2102      8255          543        315       59

Nov    3        1436      7830         186         458       23

Dec     1       1633      8475          266        477       28

Jan     7        2025      6729         148        285      140

Feb     2        2990   12012          946        991      175

Mar     2        1778     7756          335        173        28 

         11        1022      6002         465           88       28

         18          721      5214         380           69       39

         24          649     5008        300           82       33

         31          676      4287         276           28       44

Apr     1          439      4056         290           52       12

           7          409      3554         253           44         5

          14         331       3383         158            21        16

          15         361       3369         145             5          6

          21         299      3347           86           54       65 

          27         311       2703          224          39         3

May    5          225      2404          151             ?       64 

          11          226      1538           121           24       50

Summary:

• The pandemic lingers continues.
• Most new cases yesterday (new cases/million population)
• #1  Germany  93,102 (1108)
• #2  USA  87,487 (261)
• #1  New York  10,473 (537)
• #2  Florida  7724 (359)
• #3  Texas  3406 (117)
• #4  Pennsylvania  3065 (236)
• #5  California  2978 (75)
• Puerto Rico  4911 (1444)
• Hawaii  824 (586)
• Rhode Island  (990)
• #3  Taiwan  57,185 (2383)
• #4  Australia 57,088 (2196)
• #5  South Korea 43,899 (856)
• World  577,501 (73)  but many countries undercount the truth
• Most new deaths yesterday (new deaths/million population)--many countries not submitting daily figures anymore.
• #1  Germany  227 (2.7)
• #2  USA  226 (0.7)
• #3  Brazil  121 (0.6)
• World  1538 (0.2)  many countries undercount deaths
• Hungary  77 (8.0)
• New Zealand  29 (5.8)
• Mortality rate based on data from yesterday.
• World  0.27%
• USA  0.26%
• In other words, there is around one death for every 387 cases.
• Mortality rate based on total data from day one.
• World  1.2%
• USA  1.2%
• Why the difference?
• The Omicron subvariant is not as lethal as the earlier variants.
• People are getting vaccinated and boosted.
• Hospitals and the medical profession have better learned how to treat patients, plus, there are now pills to ameliorate symptoms.
• Actually, the mortality rate shown today should be even lower.
• Many now take at-home tests and don't report positive results because they are mostly asymptomatic.
• Thus, the denominator is much too low.
• If this number is doubled, the mortality rate of COVID-19 today is on the order of around 0.1%.
• Interestingly enough, the mortality rate of the seasonal flu is 0.1%.
• Tests of "everyone" in Shanghai and Beijing seem to indicate that the current asymptomatic rate could well be in the range of 97%.
• If the standard 25-40% asymptomatic rate now and then reported by the CDC and WHO should be higher, that would partly explain why the overall mortality rate of 1.2% could well be close to the 0.1% of the seasonal flu.

What about the matter of long haulers?  Very little has been reported, but the current guess is that anywhere from 10-30% of COVID-19 patients might experience long COVID after recovering.  There are three categories of lingering symptoms.

• The virus causes direct cell damage.  Organs are affected, leading to cardiac symptoms, anxiety, fatigue, depression, insomnia loss of taste/smell, gastrointestinal symptoms, hair loss, rashes and brain fog.

• 
  Chronic hospitalization results in muscle weakness and cognitive brain dysfunction.
• There are patient factors at play impacting the immune system and effect of inflammation.
• Women are affected more than men, with cases most prominent in middle-age females.

• 
  THIS IS SIGNIFICANT:  vaccines can prevent long COVID.  In other words, not only are you prevented from contracting this disease, but if you are still infected, the odds are low that you will become a long-hauler.  Nothing yet said about boosters, but my common sense tells me that just as boosters help you avoid COVID, they should also further minimize lingering symptoms.

That above information is almost a year old.  Here is a Scientific American article from February of this year:

• The uncertainty still remains high:  14% to 30%.
• It does not matter if you suffer symptoms, for this seems not be a major factor in determining who suffers from lingering problems.  That is, if you are asymptomatic, you could also become a long hauler.
• While those affected can suffer an additional month or more than year, this does not last forever.
• Omicron does not affect the lungs as much as earlier variants
• AGAIN IT IS UNDERSCORED THAT VACCINES:  not only reduce the risk of serious illness in the first place; they also lower the chance of developing long COVID in the event of a breakthrough infection.
• 
  ALSO:  researchers reported that people who received at least one dose of a vaccine were seven to 10 times less likely than unvaccinated individuals to report two or more long COVID symptoms 12 to 20 weeks after their diagnosis.
• No data yet on how boosters affect long COVID risk.  However, Akiko Iwasaki, an immunobiologist at Yale who studies the syndrome, says boosters will further help.
• However, the threat of become a long hauler, even if this affected only one in hundred, is severe enough that it is best not be blasé about this virus.

Finally, there was a time early this year when your odds of dying from COVID was up there with heart disease.  This was when we were getting 2,000 deaths/day.  Now we are approaching 200 deaths/day, which places COVID below accidents, stroke and most causes of deaths.   When COVID deaths reach 100/day, that is when this disease becomes equal to traffic accident deaths/day.

On awakening, Marianne Faithfull was singing As Tears Go By.  Showing was a recent photo, which was nowhere like how I remembered her.  So looked her up and found that that she was as I envisioned in 1964 when the song became popular.  Also learned of her long affair with Mick Jagger, and how she became a heroine addict and homeless.   Jagger, Keith Richard and others wrote that song, and the Rolling Stones also made it a hit.   Now 75, she is contemplating returning to singing.

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