Skip to main content

SOME REMARKABLE COVID PANDEMIC TRENDS

              From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

  DAY   USA  WORLD    Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9     1093     4732         1185        246       82
July    22      1205     7128         1293      1120     572
Aug    12      1504     6556        1242        835     130
Sept     9      1208      6222       1136       1168       82
Oct     21      1225      6849         571        703       85
Nov    25       2304    12025        620        518      118
Dec    30       3880    14748       1224       299      465
Jan     14       4142      15512        1151        189      712
Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398
Mar      2       1989     9490        1726       110      194
April     6        906    11787         4211       631       37
May     4        853     13667        3025      3786     59 
June    1        287    10637         2346      3205      95
 July    7         251      8440        1595        817      411
Aug     4         656    10120        1118        532      423 
Sept   22      2228      9326          839       279     124
Oct      6       2102      8255          543       315       59
Nov    3        1436      7830         186        458       23
Dec     1       1633      8475          266        477       28
Jan     7        2025      6729         148         285     140
Feb     2        2990   12012          946        991      175
Mar     2        1778     7756          335         173       28 
Apr     1         439      4056         290         52        12
May    5         225      2404        151            ?        64 
June    2        216      1413          130          10        31 
July    7         320       1958        297          38         9 
Aug   4         311        2138          258          70         ? 
         11         290       1994         173          49         ?
        18          264      1950         202           ?         ?
        25          245      1909         197          68        ?
        31          403      1989         115           37        ? 
Sep    1          272       1732          39            ?         ? 
          8          287       1676          99          13        ? 
        15          249        1418          79          23       17
        21          375        1330         87          26        ?

Summary:

  • President Joe Biden did say the pandemic was over, as well captured by John Darkow.
  • COVID was the third-leading cause of deaths in the U.S. in 2020 and 2021, after heart disease and cancer.
  • If the death rate averages from 300-500/day, as some fear, the total deaths/year will place the  SARS-CoV-2 virus on par with Alzheimer's, chronic lower respiratory diseases and stroke.
  • I think vaccinations/boosters will drop the weekly deaths to less than 100/day.  Traffic deaths in the USA average 110/day.
  • From 2010-2019 the CDC estimated that 9-14 million Americans caught the flu, resulting in 12,000-52,000 deaths.
  • Some weekly trends.
    • Change in the number of cases.
      • #1      Kuwait  77,500%
      • #2      Iraq  74,000%
      • #3      Lesotho  20,300%
      • #8      Sudan  100%
      • #17    Australia  43%
      • #25    Austria  29%
      • #34    Germany  14%
      • #38    Italy  12%
      • #42    Russia  8%
      • #54    UAE  3%
      • #56    Singapore  2%
      • #62    El Salvador  0%
      • #64    Sweden  -2%
      • #69    South Africa  -4%
      • #82    World  -12%
      • #97    Hong Kong  -20%
      • #102  South Korea  -23%
      • #104  USA  -25%
      • #109  Japan  -28%
      • #122  Mexico  -37%
      • #124  New Zealand  -38%
      • #132  China  -40%
      • #156  Canada  -71%
      • 26 countries had no cases this past week, including:
        • Bermuda (which is now facing Hurricane Fiona)
        • Botswana
        • Costa Rica
        • Ireland
        • Micronesia
        • Turkey
        • Ukraine
        • Yemen
    • Change in number of deaths.
      • #1      Iraq  400%
      • #4      Myanmar  250%
      • #10    Vietnam  100%
      • #18    Singapore  67%
      • #22    Austria  35%
      • #28    Taiwan  23%
      • #30    Hong Kong  19%
      • #34    Russia  9%
      • #38    South Korea  4%
      • #40    South Africa  1%
      • #119  Philippines  -3%
      • #123  France  -8%
      • #126  Germany  -13%
      • #128  World  -22%
      • #131  USA  -26%
      • #134  Japan  -31%
      • #137  Israel  -33%
      • #141  Norway  -41%
      • #147  Finland  -44%
      • #153  New Zealand  -57%
      • #159  Canada  -68%
      • #165  UK  -85%
      • 21 countries had no deaths this past week, including:
        • Mauritius
        • Qatar
        • Haiti
        • Botswana
        • Ireland
        • Turkey
        • Ukraine
  • New cases yesterday.
    • #1      Germany  56,978
    • #2      Russia  53,045
    • #3      USA  47,853
    • #4      Taiwan  46,853
    • #5      South Korea  41,231
    • #6      Japan  38,250
    • #7      France  38,250
    • #8      Italy  21,188
  • New deaths yesterday.
    • #1      USA  375
    • #2      Japan  124
    • #3      Russia  107
  • New cases/million population.
    • #1      Taiwan  1959
    • #2      Hungary  1281
    • #3      Slovenia  1180
    • #4      Austria  933
    • #5      South Korea  803
    • #9      Germany  675
    • #11    France  583
    • #12    Singapore  421
    • #14    Russia  363
    • #15    Italy  352
    • #18    Japan  307
    • #27    USA  143
    • #40    Australia  60
    • #        World  54
    • #43    UAE  36
    • #50    Thailand  16
    • #91    China  0.1
A few thoughts:
  • Even though the USA led the world yesterday with 375 new deaths, we rank #27 in new deaths/million population.  We dropped 25% from the previous 7-day period in new cases and 26% in new deaths.
  • Japan has plummeted in cases and deaths, dropping 28% from the previous 7-day period in new cases and 31% in new deaths.
  • Thus, in consideration of where you might want to visit, looking at trends, Europe continues to be somewhat dangerous, and much of the Orient is declining in cases and deaths.
  • The rather astonishing development is that the mortality rate seems headed to some day equal that of the seasonal flu, with South Korea a country that is already there.  Vaccinations, boosters and treatments have served to significantly reduce COVID deaths.
Hurricane Fiona is continuing to strengthen, now at 130 MPH, and her eye track should be sufficiently west of the Bahamas to escape catastrophic damage.  However, Fiona will still be at Category 2 strength when she approaches Nova Scotia on Saturday.


-

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

A NEXT COVID SUBVARIANT?

By now most know that the Omicron BA.5 subvariant has become the dominant infectious agent, now accounting for more than 80% of all COVID-19 cases.  Very few are aware that a new one,   BA.4.6,  is sneaking in and steadily rising, now accounting for 13% of sequenced samples .  However, as BA.4.6 has emerged from BA.4, while there is uncertainty, the scientific sense is that the latest bivalent booster targeting BA.4 and BA.5 should also be effective for this next threat. One concern is that Evusheld--the only monoclonal antibody authorized for COVID prevention in immunocompromised individuals--is not effective against BA.4.6.  Here is a  reference  as to what this means.  A series of two injections is involved.  Evusheld was developed by British-Swedish company AstraZeneca, and is a t ixagevimab  co-packaged with  cilgavimab . More recently, Los Angeles County reported on  subvariant BA.2.75.2 . which Tony Fauci termed suspicious and troublesome.  This strain has also been spreading in

Part 3: OUR NEXT AROUND THE WORLD ODYSSEY

Before I get into my third, and final, part of this cruise series, let me start with some more newsworthy topics.  Thursday was my pandemic day for years.  Thus, every so often I return to bring you up to date on the latest developments.  All these  subvariants  derived from that Omicron variant, and each quickly became dominant, with slightly different symptoms.  One of these will shock you. There has been a significant decline in the lost of taste and smell.  From two-thirds of early patients to now only 10-20% show these symptoms. JN.1, now the dominant subvariant, results in mostly mild symptoms. However, once JN.1 infects some, there seem to be longer-lasting symptoms. Clearly, the latest booster helps prevent contracting Covid. A competing subvariant,  BA.2.86,  also known as Pirola , a month ago made a run, but JN.1 prevailed. No variant in particular, but research has shown that some of you will begin to  lose hair  for several months.  This is caused by stress more than anythi

HONOLULU TO SEATTLE

The story of the day is Hurricane Milton, now a Category 4 at 145 MPH, with a track that has moved further south and the eye projected to make landfall just south of Sarasota.  Good news for Tampa, which is 73 miles north.  Milton will crash into Florida as a Category 4, and is huge, so a lot of problems can still be expected in Tampa Bay with storm surge.  If the eye had crossed into the state just north of Tampa, the damage would have been catastrophic.  Milton is a fast-moving storm, currently at 17 MPH, so as bad as the rainfall will be over Florida, again, a blessing.  The eye will make landfall around 10PM EDT today, and will move into the Atlantic Ocean north of Palm Bay Thursday morning. My first trip to Seattle was in June of 1962 just after I graduated from Stanford University.  Caught a bus. Was called the  Century 21 Exposition .  Also the Seattle World's Fair.  10 million joined me on a six-month run.  My first. These are held every five years, and there have only been