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STRANDED ASTRONAUTS AND DONALD TRUMP

For the past couple of days I've been keeping you up to date on our two stranded NASA astronauts on the International Space Station.  Today, NASA shared one more scary bit of news:

  • Their assessment is that if Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore were to soon return on the semi-crippled Starliner spacecraft, the odds of not making it back alive would only be 1 in 270.
  • Sure, if a horse had those same odds, it would almost never win.
  • However, two human lives are worth a lot more than a losing horse.
  • Consider this:
According to a 2017 Harvard University study, the odds that your plane will crash are one in 1.2 million, and the odds of dying from a crash are one in 11 million. Your chances of dying in a car accident, meanwhile, are one in 5,000.

  • In other words, you would have a 40,740 times better chance on a successful commercial flight than what is facing those astronauts.
  • Another study found that more than 95% of aircraft occupants survived the crash.
  • Two other ways to look at these numbers.
    • A person could fly once/day for four million years to succumb to a fatal crash.
    • A person could ride once/day for 1818 years before succumbing to a fatal crash.  I find this statistic to be especially reassuring
    • Comparing every car or plane ride you take, you are 2200 more likely to die in that car than on that plane.
    • Or, comparing the chance of those astronauts with that car ride, you are only 170 times more likely to stay alive in that car than would those astronauts on the Starliner.
    • Something seems wrong here, for those 1818 years above make a traffic death look a lot better for the survival of any individual.  Probably has something to do with the fact that you take a lot of car rides than that one-time Starliner return.
Other odds of dying:

  • A motor vehicle crash (1-112) vs. a commercial airplane crash (1-96,566)
  • Overdosing on opioid prescription painkillers (1-234) vs. being electrocuted (1-12,200)
  • Falling (1-144) vs. a cataclysmic storm (1-6,780)
  • Being a passenger in a car (1-470) vs. a lightning strike (1-164,968)
  • Walking down or crossing the street (1-704) vs. a wasp, bee or hornet sting (1-55,764)
  • Complications from surgical or medical care (1,532) vs. an earthquake (1-179,965)

81 days until November 5, when America votes for the President of the United States, abbreviated as POTUS by the media, but PUS (President of the United States) for the 45th, Donald Trump, who is more and more also looking stranded.  I'll today provide a timeline for this crucial race pitting Donald Trump/JD Vance vs Kamala Harris/Tim Walz.

  • The Democratic National Convention in Chicago.  Pro-Palestinian protesters could cause a problem.  Doesn't look like any hope for a Gaza solution over the next week.
    • Democrats also were in Chicago in 1968 during the Vietnam War.  Anti-war protesters ruined everything.
    • Their favorite candidate, Bobby Kennedy had been assassinated that summer.  Earlier in April, Martin Luther King was also killed.
    • Democrat Hubert Humphrey eventually lost to Richard Nixon, who got 301 of the 538 electoral votes.
  • Sometime this week, or next, the truth about where Barron Trump will go to college.
    • He is the only son of Donald and Melania.  So she showed up at the Republican National Conference.  She looked uncomfortable, and has not been seen anywhere close to her husband on the campaign trail.
    • The three favorites are New York University, Miami University and the University of Pennsylvania.  In the running is Georgetown.
    • Donald, Jr. and Ivanka were Penn graduates.  Eric went to Georgetown, and also Tiffany for her law degree.  She also graduated from Penn.
    • The photo above is Barron when he was 6'7" tall, with dad and friend Bo Loudon.  Apparently, Barron is now 6'9", same as LeBron James, Larry Bird and author Michael Crichton.  Father Donald is 6'3", and mother Melania 5'11".
  • August 30:  In DC, Judge Tanya Chutkan will entertain input from Special Counsel Jack Smith and Trump's lawyers about the actual trial, which will probably begin later in September, or October, or next year.   Keep in mind that this is the trial of Trump's coup attempt, where 140 law enforcement officers suffered injuries, the largest mass-casual event for police.
  • September 10:  Trump vs Harris debate on ABC.
  • September 18:  Trump hush money trial sentencing, although his lawyers are trying to get this delayed. 

So between now and November, 5 here are the issues and importance.  90% of voters have probably already made up their mind.  The softness will be in how many Republicans turn away from Trump and what happens to Independents.

  • Democracy.
These sentiments have shown up in many surveys. In an August Morning Consult/Bipartisan Policy Center poll, 82 percent of voters said they were worried about democracy in the U.S. Half of voters even said having a functioning democracy was a bigger immediate concern than having a strong economy in a YouGov/CBS News poll from January. Two in three Americans were concerned about a repeat of Jan. 6 in a December Navigator poll, and 85 percent were worried about political violence in the future.
  • Items for the middle class.  This is the group that was leaning away from Biden.  The average person in the USA is now moving towards Harris.  Trump continues to insult everyone, even this group.
  • Taxes.  Trump will extend his tax credits...for the rich.  No gain for him here.
  • Trade.  Harris, no tariffs.  Trump, more tariffs, which will mostly negatively affect the middle class.
  • Education.  Trump will eliminate the Department of Education.  A major bullet of Agenda 2025.  Seriously hurts Trump.  Harris treats education as a fundamental right, and wants to push towards a debt-free college.
  • Foreign policy.  Trump wants to join the President for Life Club of Xi, Putin, Orban and Kim.
  • Israel/Hamas/Gaza.  Trump's position has been that the Hamas would not have dared to attack Israel.  Harris hopes some sort of peace agreement can be reached by October.
  • NATO and Freedom.  Harris would continue Biden's support, while Trump does not like NATO and wants freedom for himself.
  • Ukraine.  Harris will continue to support Zelensky, while Trump wants future aid to be loans.  Ukraine is fighting communism, attempting to save democracy and losing lives in the process.  72% of Americans feel that we are either aiding just the right amount or not enough.
  • Medical Affordable Care Act.  Harris wants to extend, Trump wants to eliminate this.
  • Crime.  Harris is a progressive prosecutor, Trump likes to say police love him and all police unions have endorsed him.  True?  NO!  Ask the Capitol Police.
  • Gun Control.  Democrats want to better control guns.  Republicans oppose.  Even after that assassination attempt, Trump has said he will still protect gun rights.  Most Americans want stricter control.  Another mass murder between now and November 5 will only help Harris.
  • Federal Workforce.  Harris will defend civil service rights.  Trump will fire as many as he can and only hire those blindly supportive of him.
  • Immigration.  Republicans seem to have an advantage here, but why?  Mostly Hispanics are involved, and they are confused.  The U.S. Congress this year arrived at a bipartisan package on immigration, but Donald Trump personally scuttled the deal.   Trump, who is himself a rapist and felon, keeps saying that immigrants are mostly rapists and criminals.  The fact of the matter is that...
...immigrants are 60% less likely to be incarcerated than U.S. born citizens, and 30% less likely relative to U.S. born whites.

  • Personal rights.  Harris favors.  Trump decries.
I can go on and on, but if Harris can just sway 1% of voters in a few above categories, she should slaughter Trump on November 5, effectively sending him next year to be stranded in prison.

Hurricane Ernesto is now up to 100 MPH, but save for weather problems for Bermuda, will remain in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, possibly touching St. Johns, Nova Scotia.

Typhoon Ampil got up to 130 MPH, but made a right turn and spared Japan.

There are three spots in the Eastern and Central Pacific with the potential of becoming hurricanes over the next week.


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