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DONALD TRUMP vs KAMALA HARRIS

While the peak of protests at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago is not until tonight, the effort last night was peaceful.  Today, a lot more out there, but surprisingly enough for me, there are not only the large pro-Palestinian group, but also pro-Israel, climate change, abortion rights, racial equality and other interests.  Not as angry and trouble-making as those Vietnam War protesters of 1968, which focused on doing something newsworthy (left).

Time magazine this morning indicated the following:

  • The Democratic Party National Convention kicks off in Chicago tonight.
  • ...former President Donald Trump entered the Republican National Convention a month ago, with the betting odds in his favor and leading the polls by a comfortable margin.
  • Now, Kamala Harris is favored.

Harris is ahead of Trump by 49-45 percent among registered voters and 51-45 percent among likely voters in a two-way race, according to an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll.

In a five-way race that includes Robert F Kennedy, Cornel West and Jill Stein, Harris leads Trump 47-44 percent among registered voters and 49-45 percent among likely voters.

In a CBS News poll, Harris is three points ahead nationally, leading Trump 51-48 percent.

YearWinner (Party)Winner OddsRunner-up (Party)Runner-up Odds
2020Joe Biden (D)-175Donald Trump (R)+150
2016Donald Trump (R)+375Hillary Clinton (D)-550
2012Barack Obama (D)-450Mitt Romney (R)+360
2008Barack Obama (D)-900John McCain (R)+800
2004George W. Bush (R)-188John Kerry (D)+138
2000George W. Bush (R)-175Al Gore (D)+125
1996Bill Clinton (D)-1000Bob Dole (R)+600
1992Bill Clinton (D)-800George H. W. Bush (R)+500
1988George H. W. Bush (R)-700Michael Dukakis (D)+400

Note the one plus (+) example above:

This is regarded as one of the biggest upsets in election history. Clinton was always the favorite leading up to the election. However, with just 2 weeks to go, an FBI investigation into her emails dropped Clinton from -550 odds to about -300 odds. Trump improved to +200 because of that.

Being the favorite is one thing, but the strength of your odds is also important. Just consider this split for the favorite since 1872:

  • Favorites with odds of -175 or better are 26-2 (.929) in U.S. presidential elections.
  • Favorites with odds of -150 or longer are 1-6 (.143) in U.S. presidential elections.

Of the last 35 U.S. presidential elections where there was a clear betting favorite by the odds, that favorite has won 27 times, or 77.1% of the elections. Note that there were 3 elections (1880, 1952, and 1980) where the candidates were tied in the final odds.

That’s a strong winning percentage for the favorite, and it has improved in recent times after some upsets in the 19th century. In the last 30 elections with a clear favorite, the favorite is 26-4 (.867) with a 9-1 record (.900) since Ronald Reagan’s reelection in 1984.

  • One more comparison showing the vulnerability of Kamala Harris.

2024 Presidential CandidateBet365 Betting OddsImplied Win ProbabilitySportsInteraction Betting OddsImplied Win Probability

  • Good news for Kamala Harris, though, is that past national conventions have shown that the party candidate experiences a bump in ratings.
  • Keep in mind that things can still significantly change during the final few weeks, as was shown in Hillary Clinton's loss to Donald Trump.
  • 78 days until November 5.
However, a positive bit of good news for Donald Trump.  That, apparently, is his real hair.

U.S. News compiled some recent Trump cartoons.









Donald Trump just being himself should be enough to get Kamala Harris elected.

Top 20 Craziest Trump Moments.

This video is now three years old, but here is former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich revealing Trump's 40 biggest broken promises.

Top 10 celebrity Trump haters.

For some equal time, a host of celebrities supporting Donald Trump after his assassination.  Video includes, interestingly enough, Mike Pence.

But, ah, here are more Anti-Trump celebrities.

Billionaires:  Harris or Trump? Watch if you have 9 minutes to spare.

Nothing to do with politics, but view the transformation of movie stars from their prime into their old age.  Mesmerizing, but, in general....awful.  Brigitte Bardot passed away at the age of 89.  

Finally, why Artificial Intelligence could someday maybe replace humans in future films.

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