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THE MOST DEADLY EARTHQUAKES


From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

         DAY  USA  WORLD    Brazil    India    South Africa

2020
June     9     1093     4732         1185        246       82
July    22      1205     7128         1293      1120     572
Aug    12      1504     6556        1242        835     130
Sept     9      1208      6222       1136       1168       82
Oct     21      1225      6849         571        703       85
Nov    25       2304    12025        620        518      118
Dec    30       3880    14748       1224       299      465
2021
Jan     14       4142      15512       1151         189     712
Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398
Mar      2       1989     9490        1726       110      194
April     6        906    11787         4211       631       37
May     4        853     13667        3025      3786     59 
June    1        287    10637         2346      3205      95
 July    7         251      8440        1595        817      411
Aug     4         656    10120        1118        532      423 
Sept   22      2228      9326          839       279     124
Oct      6       2102      8255          543       315       59
Nov    3        1436      7830         186        458       23
Dec     1       1633      8475          266        477       28
2022
Jan     7        2025      6729         148         285     140
Feb     2        2990   12012          946        991      175
Mar     2        1778     7756          335         173       28 
Apr     1          439      4056         290          52       12
May    5          225      2404         151            ?        64
June    2         216      1413         130           10        31
July    6          316      1627         335           35       12 
Aug    4          311       2138         258          70         ?
Sep    1           272       1732         174            ?         ?
Oct     6          281       1305         119            9         ?
Nov    3          167         980           16            ?         ?
        25            88         985           71             3        ?  
Dec    3          149       1029         131            3         ?
          8          194       1320         104             6       86
        15           147       1295         124             4         ?
        22          289       1637         165             9         ? 
        28          296       1768         337            2         ?
Jan    4          346       1534         207             ?         ?
         5           220       1611          183             ?         ? 
       12            270       1470         128             ?         ?
       19            225       1775         480             ?         ?
        26           351       1361           92             1         7
Feb    1           221       1261         126              ?         ?
          8          329        999          50             2         ?

Summary:
  • The USA had a third of the world covid deaths yesterday.  Japan has been leading the world for most of the past couple of months, and was #2 with 200 new deaths.  Germany #3 with 127 and Taiwan #4 with 54.
  • Japan continued to have the most new cases with 41,584, with the USA and Taiwan #2 and #3, both in the range of 24,000.
  • Who knows what is happening in China, which has reported 80,000 covid deaths since early December, which would thus mean around half of all deaths occurred in China.  However, most experts say around a million died these past two months, which would mean that China had about a hundred times more deaths than the entire world combined.
  • But about the USA, this winter season has only had a mild bump compared to last year and the year before.  Hospitalization is a good indicator, for tests are performed and should be reliable.
Turning next to the subject of the day, the death total in the recent Turkey 7.8/7.5 earthquakes has exceeded 20,000.  The previous quake of this magnitude occurred in 1999, killing 17,127.  A 7.8 earthquake in 1939 saw 32,700 killed.  The country is in a seismically active area where the Eurasian, African and Arabian plates are colliding.  The orange ones are of magnitude 7 and higher.
  • 1905  India  (Kangra)            7.8    20,000
  • 1908  Italy (Messina)            7.2    82,000
  • 1915  Italy (Avezzano)          6.9    32,610
  • 1920  China (Hiyuan)           8.6  235,502
  • 1923  Japan (Great Kanto)    7.9  142,807
  • 1927  China (Gulang)           7.9    80,000
  • 1935  Pakistan (Auetta)        8.1    60,000
  • 1939  Chile (Chillan)            7.7    28,000
  • 1939  Turkey (Erzincan)       7.8    33,000
  • 1970  Peru (Ancash)             7.9    70,000
  • 1976  Guatemala                  7.5     23,000
  • 1976  China  (Tangshan)      7.6   655,237
  • 1988  Armenia                      6.7    25,000
  • 1990  Iran                              7.4    45,000
  • 2001  India (Gujarat)            7.6    20,023
  • 2003  Iran (Bam)                   6.6    31,000
  • 2004  Indonesia (Sumatra)    9.1  297,200
  • 2005  Pakistan (Kashmir)     7.6    87,351
  • 2008  Chiba (Sichuan)          7.6    88,287
  • 2010  Haiti                            7.0  316,000
  • 2023  Turkey (+Syria)          7.8    20,000+
Here are the deadliest earthquakes in history:
  • #1    1556  Sanxi, China  8.0  830,000
  • #2    2010  Port-au-Prince, Haiti  7.0  316,000
  • #3      115  Antakya, Turkey  7.5  260,000
  • #4      525  Antakya, Turkey  ?  250,000
  • #5    1976  Tangshan, China  7.8  242,769
  • #6    1139  Gyzndzha, Azerbaijan  ?  230,000
  • #7    2004  Sumatra, Indonesia  9.1  227,899
  • #8      856  Damghan, Iran  8.3  200,000
  • #9      893  Dvin, Armenia  ?  150,000
  • #10  1923  Tokyo, Japan  ?  142,807 
Note the differences from the above list by Wikipedia and the one below by Newsweek.   For example, a death difference of 655,327 and 242,769 for Tangsan, China.  Both numbers can be found in references, and this earthquake only occurred in 1976.  Something about reliable data from China.  Also, why don't the deaths increase with higher magnitude?
  • Location near populations centers.
  • Depth of epicenter.
  • Type of infrastructure.
And, no matter what people say and in what they believe, there is yet no sure way to predict earthquakes.  That from the USGS.  From Wikipedia, some statistical data might provide a clue, as for example clustering of smaller earthquakes.  The thinking is that maybe 5% of serious earthquakes have followed this sequence.
Then the question is about any value to earthquake warnings.  What would be the economic and societal cost to scaring a population base and be a lot more wrong than right. There is that cost-benefit ratio of earthquake prediction.

Then there are precursors, running from aeronomy to zoology.
  • Before an earthquake, there are pressure waves and foreshocks not noticed by humans, but detected by a variety of animals.  Studies have covered 130 species over thousands of years, mostly in China and Japan.  The general conclusion is that these behaviors were not necessarily predictive.
  • These waves can be measured by seismometers and other instruments.  Something called seismic waves have been confirmed to predict certain earthquakes.  It's possible that this method can be developed to work.
  • Radon gas released by seismic stress can be measured and used as a prediction tool.  However, this phenomenon does not always occur.
  • There are electromagnetic anomalies like ultra low frequency magnetic changes, but the field has generally discredited this technique.
  • Maybe the most touted (and criticized) claim is the VAN method from the University of Athens.  The researchers measured geoelectric voltages, providing from 6 to 115 hours of warning time.  Most reviewers found the method to be flawed.  A 2020 report indicated that the VAN method suffered from an abundance of false positives and was therefore not usable as a prediction protocol.
  • Perhaps the most celebrated prediction occurred in Corralitos, California a month prior to the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake which occurred around 5 miles away.  I wrote about my experience with this event several times.  Just 3 hours before the quake, a seismo-electromagnetic device  soared to about 30 times greater than normal.  Certainly, there must have been a reason, but subsequent monitoring throughout California did not repeat anything like this, so the Corralitos anomaly was cast aside as a sensor-system malfunction, or unrelated magnetic disturbance.
  • Satellites measurements, ionospheric disturbances and a range of space related options have been looked at, but nothing dependable has developed.
  • There are examples of predictive successes for several major earthquakes, but nothing has subsequently been universally acclaimed.
There was optimism in the 1970's leading to decades of disappointments.  Most experts today say that earthquake prediction is not intrinsically impossible.  Time, luck and such will tell.

I'll end with some photos from Gretchan Gould about Marjorie Taylor Green regarding the Chinese balloon and the heckling of Biden at his State of the Union presentation.

- 

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