THE BEST STRATEGY FOR DEMOCRATS TO WIN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN NOVEMBER OF 2024

The New York Times had this bar graph of Republican candidates for the Presidential election next year.

After all his legal problems and moral turpitude derangements, it defies any kind of sensibility for Donald Trump to still be supported by 45.6% of Republicans for the next President of the United States.

Then for Ron DeSantis to be the #1 second-tier hope, by a factor 5 over Mike Pence, because more and more party voters are beginning to be convinced that there are too many flaws for Trump to gain the presidential nomination in mid-July of 2024, places the party in a truly uncomfortable position.
I've long touted New Hampshire governor Chris Sununu as their best choice.
And what about Liz Cheney? Republicans are afraid that she will run as an independent candidate with an attractive Veep partner, like Adam Kinziger. Or perhaps a conventional Republic off-shoot party as an alternative to Donald Trump, if he gains the nomination If they draw only 2% of the votes, that would be enough to sink any Republican running, and they look good enough to earn 5%.

President Joe Biden says he intends to stand for re-election.

He is already 80 years old, the first sitting president to reach that age.
If he runs and wins, he will be 87 years old when his second term ends. An 83-year old American male has an additional life expectancy of less than 7 years. A lot can go wrong.

One list I saw indicated that there are seven Democrats most likely to run if he doesn't, and five are women: Kamala Harris, Stacey Abrams, Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren and Gretchan Whitmer. Two men: Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg.

Thus, even for the Democratic Party, there is no truly charismatic leader clearly obvious to take on the challenge if Biden doesn't run. I still think that Michelle Obama should be the one, and so do the Republicans, but she remains inclined to sit that out in 2024. One poll shows her 8 points ahead of Kamala Harris and 12 relative to Bernie Sanders. Veep partner? California Governor Gavin Newsom. But it's getting late.

So what should be the Democratic strategy to prevail on 5 November 2024? For one, it doesn't matter who is the Democrat candidate. Why? Because anyone they select should be able to beat the Republican if they can only keep Donald Trump disconcertingly competitive into July of 2024. Meaning:

Wait to convict and jail him.
New York has pulled back and so has the Department of Justice. They should hold off until next year to pull him into court. When exactly? Not sure, but maybe a year from now might be okay, and move slowly, for the longer he is viable, the higher the chance of Republicans losing.
Georgia seems to be moving faster than comfortable. And that state does have a Republican governor who doesn't like Trump.

Isn't it too dangerous to take the chance of providing a path for Trump to actually gain the Republican nomination and win the election? Democracy and worse will be at stake. Yes, but that's the optimal gamble.

If he is allowed to operate with his usual impunity, he will even more royally screw up the Republican Party, and as importantly, swing some Independent votes to Democrats. All you need is one vote more than 50% to win. Republicans will be so much into alienation with his tactics and effectiveness, that two things will happen.

If he is the nominee, there is no way that he will retain all Republican votes, and should also lose most Independents.
The Democratic strategy would be to convict him some time between mid-July into October.
If someone else is the nominee, there will be a sufficient number of Trumpers so upset that they won't vote for that candidate. Only 10% of them can make a big difference.
The wild card, again, will be Independents. But this strategy will only sway them away from the Republican Party.

American Idol is into week two with a second Platinum ticket to 15-year old Kaylin Hedges last night. Read about why here....heartwarming....and click on her presentation. Last week's Platinum was Tyson Venegas. Earlier, Elijah McCormick was voted a Platinum by fans during the video auditioning period.

HONOLULU TO SEATTLE

The story of the day is Hurricane Milton, now a Category 4 at 145 MPH, with a track that has moved further south and the eye projected to make landfall just south of Sarasota. Good news for Tampa, which is 73 miles north. Milton will crash into Florida as a Category 4, and is huge, so a lot of problems can still be expected in Tampa Bay with storm surge. If the eye had crossed into the state just north of Tampa, the damage would have been catastrophic. Milton is a fast-moving storm, currently at 17 MPH, so as bad as the rainfall will be over Florida, again, a blessing. The eye will make landfall around 10PM EDT today, and will move into the Atlantic Ocean north of Palm Bay Thursday morning. My first trip to Seattle was in June of 1962 just after I graduated from Stanford University. Caught a bus. Was called the Century 21 Exposition . Also the Seattle World's Fair. 10 million joined me on a six-month run. My first. These a...

OSAKA EXPO: Day One

Well, the day finally came for us to go to the Osaka Expo. We were told ahead of time that the long walks would be fearful, giant lines will need to be tolerated just to get into the Expo, with those ocean breezes, it would really be cold, and so forth. Maybe it was pure luck, but we avoided all the above warnings We had a grand day, and are looking forward to Sunday, our second day at the Expo. So come along for an enjoyable ride. Our hotel is adjacent to the Tennoji Station, a very large one with several lines. We upgraded our Suica card and caught the Misosuji red line towards Umeda. Transferred to the Chuo green line at the Hommachi Station. This Osaka Metro train took us to the Yumeshima Station at the Expo site. It was a very large mob leaving the train and heading to the entrance. Took only a few minutes to get to the entrance. This mob was multiplied by at least a factor of ten of those already waiting to enter. However...

WHY YOU SHOULD CONVERT TO A JAPANESE HIGH TECH TOILET

Did you know that Oktoberfest in Germany is mostly in September? The very first day of Oktoberfest 2021 was supposed to be today, September 18, extending into October 3. Well, as in 2020, Oktoberfest was cancelled. So why is it called by that month when it is held mostly in September? The first celebration in 1810 was in October. Did you also know that Oktoberfest is held only in Munich? These days seven million drink more than a liter ( about three typical cans ) of beer each, costing around $11. Except for my wife and I when we followed the crowd to board the S-Bahn to the fairgrounds near Old Town. It was drizzling a bit. We bought a large pretzel outside of a typical barn where beer is served. We did not know that you needed to get this inside the hall. So no one came to serve us beer. After a while we decided to have lunch, and the restaurant we settled on only served wine. Thus, we might have been the ...

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