The New York Times had this bar graph of Republican candidates for the Presidential election next year.
After all his legal problems and moral turpitude derangements, it defies any kind of sensibility for Donald Trump to still be supported by 45.6% of Republicans for the next President of the United States.
- Then for Ron DeSantis to be the #1 second-tier hope, by a factor 5 over Mike Pence, because more and more party voters are beginning to be convinced that there are too many flaws for Trump to gain the presidential nomination in mid-July of 2024, places the party in a truly uncomfortable position.
- I've long touted New Hampshire governor Chris Sununu as their best choice.
- And what about Liz Cheney? Republicans are afraid that she will run as an independent candidate with an attractive Veep partner, like Adam Kinziger. Or perhaps a conventional Republic off-shoot party as an alternative to Donald Trump, if he gains the nomination If they draw only 2% of the votes, that would be enough to sink any Republican running, and they look good enough to earn 5%.
- He is already 80 years old, the first sitting president to reach that age.
- If he runs and wins, he will be 87 years old when his second term ends. An 83-year old American male has an additional life expectancy of less than 7 years. A lot can go wrong.
One list I saw indicated that there are seven Democrats most likely to run if he doesn't, and five are women: Kamala Harris, Stacey Abrams, Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren and Gretchan Whitmer. Two men: Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg.
So what should be the Democratic strategy to prevail on 5 November 2024? For one, it doesn't matter who is the Democrat candidate. Why? Because anyone they select should be able to beat the Republican if they can only keep Donald Trump disconcertingly competitive into July of 2024. Meaning:
- Wait to convict and jail him.
- New York has pulled back and so has the Department of Justice. They should hold off until next year to pull him into court. When exactly? Not sure, but maybe a year from now might be okay, and move slowly, for the longer he is viable, the higher the chance of Republicans losing.
- Georgia seems to be moving faster than comfortable. And that state does have a Republican governor who doesn't like Trump.
- Isn't it too dangerous to take the chance of providing a path for Trump to actually gain the Republican nomination and win the election? Democracy and worse will be at stake. Yes, but that's the optimal gamble.
If he is allowed to operate with his usual impunity, he will even more royally screw up the Republican Party, and as importantly, swing some Independent votes to Democrats. All you need is one vote more than 50% to win. Republicans will be so much into alienation with his tactics and effectiveness, that two things will happen.
- If he is the nominee, there is no way that he will retain all Republican votes, and should also lose most Independents.
- The Democratic strategy would be to convict him some time between mid-July into October.
- If someone else is the nominee, there will be a sufficient number of Trumpers so upset that they won't vote for that candidate. Only 10% of them can make a big difference.
- The wild card, again, will be Independents. But this strategy will only sway them away from the Republican Party.
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