THE BEST STRATEGY FOR DEMOCRATS TO WIN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN NOVEMBER OF 2024

The New York Times had this bar graph of Republican candidates for the Presidential election next year.

After all his legal problems and moral turpitude derangements, it defies any kind of sensibility for Donald Trump to still be supported by 45.6% of Republicans for the next President of the United States.

Then for Ron DeSantis to be the #1 second-tier hope, by a factor 5 over Mike Pence, because more and more party voters are beginning to be convinced that there are too many flaws for Trump to gain the presidential nomination in mid-July of 2024, places the party in a truly uncomfortable position.
I've long touted New Hampshire governor Chris Sununu as their best choice.
And what about Liz Cheney? Republicans are afraid that she will run as an independent candidate with an attractive Veep partner, like Adam Kinziger. Or perhaps a conventional Republic off-shoot party as an alternative to Donald Trump, if he gains the nomination If they draw only 2% of the votes, that would be enough to sink any Republican running, and they look good enough to earn 5%.

President Joe Biden says he intends to stand for re-election.

He is already 80 years old, the first sitting president to reach that age.
If he runs and wins, he will be 87 years old when his second term ends. An 83-year old American male has an additional life expectancy of less than 7 years. A lot can go wrong.

One list I saw indicated that there are seven Democrats most likely to run if he doesn't, and five are women: Kamala Harris, Stacey Abrams, Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren and Gretchan Whitmer. Two men: Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg.

Thus, even for the Democratic Party, there is no truly charismatic leader clearly obvious to take on the challenge if Biden doesn't run. I still think that Michelle Obama should be the one, and so do the Republicans, but she remains inclined to sit that out in 2024. One poll shows her 8 points ahead of Kamala Harris and 12 relative to Bernie Sanders. Veep partner? California Governor Gavin Newsom. But it's getting late.

So what should be the Democratic strategy to prevail on 5 November 2024? For one, it doesn't matter who is the Democrat candidate. Why? Because anyone they select should be able to beat the Republican if they can only keep Donald Trump disconcertingly competitive into July of 2024. Meaning:

Wait to convict and jail him.
New York has pulled back and so has the Department of Justice. They should hold off until next year to pull him into court. When exactly? Not sure, but maybe a year from now might be okay, and move slowly, for the longer he is viable, the higher the chance of Republicans losing.
Georgia seems to be moving faster than comfortable. And that state does have a Republican governor who doesn't like Trump.

Isn't it too dangerous to take the chance of providing a path for Trump to actually gain the Republican nomination and win the election? Democracy and worse will be at stake. Yes, but that's the optimal gamble.

If he is allowed to operate with his usual impunity, he will even more royally screw up the Republican Party, and as importantly, swing some Independent votes to Democrats. All you need is one vote more than 50% to win. Republicans will be so much into alienation with his tactics and effectiveness, that two things will happen.

If he is the nominee, there is no way that he will retain all Republican votes, and should also lose most Independents.
The Democratic strategy would be to convict him some time between mid-July into October.
If someone else is the nominee, there will be a sufficient number of Trumpers so upset that they won't vote for that candidate. Only 10% of them can make a big difference.
The wild card, again, will be Independents. But this strategy will only sway them away from the Republican Party.

American Idol is into week two with a second Platinum ticket to 15-year old Kaylin Hedges last night. Read about why here....heartwarming....and click on her presentation. Last week's Platinum was Tyson Venegas. Earlier, Elijah McCormick was voted a Platinum by fans during the video auditioning period.

A NEXT COVID SUBVARIANT?

By now most know that the Omicron BA.5 subvariant has become the dominant infectious agent, now accounting for more than 80% of all COVID-19 cases. Very few are aware that a new one, BA.4.6, is sneaking in and steadily rising, now accounting for 13% of sequenced samples . However, as BA.4.6 has emerged from BA.4, while there is uncertainty, the scientific sense is that the latest bivalent booster targeting BA.4 and BA.5 should also be effective for this next threat. One concern is that Evusheld--the only monoclonal antibody authorized for COVID prevention in immunocompromised individuals--is not effective against BA.4.6. Here is a reference as to what this means. A series of two injections is involved. Evusheld was developed by British-Swedish company AstraZeneca, and is a t ixagevimab co-packaged with cilgavimab . More recently, Los Angeles County reported on subvariant BA.2.75.2 . which Tony Fauci termed suspicious and troublesome. This strain has also been spreading in

Part 3: OUR NEXT AROUND THE WORLD ODYSSEY

Before I get into my third, and final, part of this cruise series, let me start with some more newsworthy topics. Thursday was my pandemic day for years. Thus, every so often I return to bring you up to date on the latest developments. All these subvariants derived from that Omicron variant, and each quickly became dominant, with slightly different symptoms. One of these will shock you. There has been a significant decline in the lost of taste and smell. From two-thirds of early patients to now only 10-20% show these symptoms. JN.1, now the dominant subvariant, results in mostly mild symptoms. However, once JN.1 infects some, there seem to be longer-lasting symptoms. Clearly, the latest booster helps prevent contracting Covid. A competing subvariant, BA.2.86, also known as Pirola , a month ago made a run, but JN.1 prevailed. No variant in particular, but research has shown that some of you will begin to lose hair for several months. This is caused by stress more than anythi

HONOLULU TO SEATTLE

The story of the day is Hurricane Milton, now a Category 4 at 145 MPH, with a track that has moved further south and the eye projected to make landfall just south of Sarasota. Good news for Tampa, which is 73 miles north. Milton will crash into Florida as a Category 4, and is huge, so a lot of problems can still be expected in Tampa Bay with storm surge. If the eye had crossed into the state just north of Tampa, the damage would have been catastrophic. Milton is a fast-moving storm, currently at 17 MPH, so as bad as the rainfall will be over Florida, again, a blessing. The eye will make landfall around 10PM EDT today, and will move into the Atlantic Ocean north of Palm Bay Thursday morning. My first trip to Seattle was in June of 1962 just after I graduated from Stanford University. Caught a bus. Was called the Century 21 Exposition . Also the Seattle World's Fair. 10 million joined me on a six-month run. My first. These are held every five years, and there have only been

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