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Of course, by now you must know that GOAT is the acronym for Greatest of All Time.  Morning Consult has provided one such list  of the greatest Super Bowl commercials, and #1 is the Doritos/Cheetos Push It with cute animals and Salt-N-Pepa's song.

But something like commercials are too vague to gain any kind of true consensus.  USA Today used Ad Meter involving 150,000 panelists, and for 64 ads, here were the best as of 14February2022.  The GOAT was Anna Kendrick doing Rocket Mortgage.

I think the actual GOAT was the Apple commercial of 1984, which introduced Macintosh, the computer I used today to crank out this posting.  The ad changed the Super Bowl forever.  Note the link to George Orwell's novela, 1984.
Others seem to select the Mean Joe Greene 1979 Coca-Cola ad where he says, Hey Kid, Catch.  I can live with that.
Here are all the commercials so far submitted for the upcoming Super Bowl.  Or do you want a sneak peek of maybe the funniest ones?  Are these to be the best?  There will be a lot of Adam Drivers.
In 2022 a 30-second ad ran companies an estimated $6.5 million.  This year? Perhaps $7 million.  However, you get exposure to 225 different television stations, 450 radio stations and 180 countries.  While the Super Bowl last year was viewed by 99, it was as high as 114 million in 2015.  Ad costs began in #1 at $40,000 for that half a minute spot.

Finally, those Super Bowl ridiculous propositions.  Some licensed sportsbooks in the U.S. offer them.  You need to avoid those illegal offshore or unauthorized agency.  It is estimated that 50 million Americans will place wagers on FOX and FOX Sports App this Sunday.    The estimate is that $16 billion be wagered, legally and illegally in squares and pools.  Stick to the legal ones.  Examples:

  • BetMGM:  Coin toss?  Heads -105, Tails -105.  Keep in mind some history: the team that wins the coin toss are 24-32, that is, they lose more than they win.
  • FanDuel:  Who will the MVP mention first?
    • team/teammates -120
    • city/fans  +325
    • God/religion  +370
    • family  +690
    • coaches +1200
    • team owner +2500
    • What do those numbers mean?
      • Go to the right column and scroll down to the BETTING ODDS CALCULATOR.  Use that address, or click on THIS.  American Odds use these plusses and minuses.  
      • You will then be able to find that -120 gives you a probability of 54.55%, meaning that the MVP will select this option that often.
      • Owner mention at +2500 is 3.85%.
  • FanDuel:  Will a player propose after the game?
    • Yes +400 (20%)
    • No  -650 (87%)
    • Note that the sum is always more than 100%.  This difference, called the vigorish, will be the house profit.
    • Note that February 12 is two days before Valentine's, so the yes vote will increase.
Keep in mind that the House always wins when everything is settled.*  At roulette, for example, their take is 5.25%.  Keno is terrible at 40% and Blackjack (if you play perfectly, the house edge is only 0.5%...but who is perfect?) is said to be the best, even though, if played out to eternity, you will lose.  Craps (0.8%) and baccarat (1.06%) are also favorable.  Guess who is paying for those luxury buildings and posh?  The Wall Street Journal revealed that just 13.5% of gamblers end up winning.  So some do, at the expense of others, not the house.  So why do people gamble?

*About the house always winning.  Yes, over time, when all bets are in for any period of time, but there have been many singular exceptions.  A good one was in Super Bowl XX in 1986.  
  • Caesars Palace had a 20-1 prop that 6'2" 335 lb defensive tackle William "Refrigerator" Perry would score a touchdown.
  • The odds dropped to 2-1 with bettors just having fun, for once these props are placed by the casino, they generally are not adjusted.
  • The Bears were up on the Patriots, 37-3, late in the game.  They were close to scoring when they brought in the Fridge, who did score.
  • Caesars lost over $100,000 on that prop.
There is another way to beat the house.  
  • Luck.
  • I will always be on the plus side at gambling because, first of all, the poker I have played with friends balance out to approximately zero.  
  • I don't do much in Las Vegas.  Perhaps a penny poker machine.  
  • Monte Carlo?  Just walked in and walked back out.  
  • Why I will always be ahead is pure luck.  Certainly, in life, you need to work hard to insure for luck.  But in a casino, I had two thunderbolts.  
    • Once in Las Vegas I bought 10 football parlay cards for $2 each, guessed the usual two to five wins, but on one card picked all 12 winners.  I think I won $15,000.  
    • Another, maybe half a century ago, I was in Sparks, Nevada, where I got a steak dinner for a couple of bucks, placed a quarter in a slot machine on my way out, and got back two for nothing showing.  Put another one in, and won several more.  Never lost.  Won enough to fill a very large bucket.  Forgot how much this was, but no one was around me, so I left before the house found out something was wrong with the machine.  Went back to my motel....and thought, why not.  So I went back, and the slot machine was gone.  Should I have returned my winnings?  Sure, but this made up for a lot of losses by others, and it seemed morally acceptable.
But back to today, Westgate Superbook has 500 props with more than 1000 betting options...in seven states.  Early on props represented only 5-10% of all super bowl bets.  They now are 70% of Westgate's handle on Super Bowl day because of the Fridge scoring.

Some of the common props include:
  • Color of Rihanna's (she will do the half time show) hair?
    • Black/Brown  -375
    • Bright Red  +250
    • Blonde  +600
  • Hot dogs sold at State Farm Stadium.
    • Under 17,000  -150
    • Over 17,000  +115
  • Beer?
    • Under 120,000  -120
    • Over  120,000  -110
  • Color of liquid to be poured on the winning coach.
    • Blue  +120
    • Lime/Green/Yellow  +200
    • Orange  +350
    • Clear/Water  +900
    • Purple  +1000
    • couple of years, there was none, and never water nor purple
Only two years ago, former NFL player and sports commentator Pat McAfee (he worked for FanDuel) bet $30,000 on the Super Bowl VV coin toss..and lost.  Some people like to bet on phases of the game itself, and here is a good site for this prop.  This kind of betting is like fantasy sports, it makes the TV watching all that much more intense.  

One final proposition  I offer is:  Will there be an octopus?  Huh?  Not an animal, but when a player scores both the touchdown and the subsequent 2-point conversion...for 8 points.  In the past, the ball was placed on the 2-yard line.  Today, on the 15-yard line.  Thus, this DraftKings prop turns out to be Yes at +1400 or 6.67% and No at +10000 or 99%.  

Tomorrow, everything you need to know about the super bowl.

-

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