IS CIVILIZATION ABOUT TO COLLAPSE?

Venezuelan Democracy Advocate Maria Corina Machado today received the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. 

• Machado is a 58-year old industrial engineer known as Venezuela's Iron Lady, who has led the opposition to authoritarian President Nicolas Maduro, whose last two elections were obviously fixed, and therefore not recognized by many countries, including the USA.
• The Nobel Committee awarded this prize for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy.

If Trump wants to be the victor for this medal next year, he should understand that the Nobel Peace Laureate fights dictatorships, not reach out to become one.  Reaction from Time magazine?  TRUMP LOSES NOBEL PEACE PRIZE HE SHAMELESSLY CAMPAIGNED FOR.

Donald Trump was no doubt disappointed, but shouldn't have been because the winner is decided most on what that person accomplished in 2024.  He still has a chance for 2026 if does not by then become a dictator.  Perhaps he can eliminate Maduro to allow Machado to become the next Venezuelan president.

However, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Machado the personification of resilience, tenacity, and patriotism in a profile for her inclusion the this year's TIME 100 list of the most influential people in the world.

But on to my disquieting story today, for yesterday, Newsweek posted an article titled:  

As Gold Hits New Record, Some See Warning Signs of Civilizational Collapse

• Gold was at $2006/ounce six months ago.
• On 7October2025 gold futures rose to $4036/ounce.
• Gold has doubled in price.

• 
  What's happening?
• Central banks are stockpiling gold bullion.
• Investors are retreating from the U.S. dollar.
• Commodity analysts cite a rare convergence of factors:  dovish monetary policy, rising geopolitical tensions and a steady erosion of institutional trust around the world.
• The U.S. debt-to-GDP Ratio was 125% in 2024, but projected to jump to 196% in 2029.

• 
  The previous bull run occurred in the 1970s.
• The U.S., in the form of President Richard Nixon, ended the gold standard in 1971 to allow market forces to determine gold's value.
• Gold was pegged at $35/ounce, but went up to $850 in the early 1980s.

• 
  The 70s was an inflationary period
• In 1970, inflation was around 5.72%.
• Dropped to 3.2% in 1972.
• Jumped to 8.8% in 1973, then 12.3% in 1974.
• Settled to 5.7% in 1976.
• Rose to a peak of 13.3% in 1979.
• Then further up to 14.8% in 1980.

• 
  What was happening in the world?
• There was heavy government spending in the late 1960s because of the Vietnam War  and the Great Society programs.
• There were two energy crises, in 1973 and 1979.
• There was the Iranian Revolution and Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
• The Federal Reserve increased the money supply.
• Unions were stronger, and contributed to wage-price spirals.
• 
  Recent factors at play.
• In 2011, prices soared during the Eurozone debt crisis and a post-financial crisis U.S, credit rating downgrade.
• The pandemic-driven economic collapse of 2020 triggered another major spike.
• In 2025, Trump factors.
• Trump tariffs.
• U.S.-China trade war.
• U.S. immigration polies, reducing the supply of labor.
• Attack of White House on Fed independence.

But there are darker fears.

• Arnaud Bertrand pointed out that when gold doubles in value, there is a triggering of profound political shifts.
• A recent Seeking Alpha analysis argues that gold's rise should not be seen as just a financial signal, but a sign of deep civilization stressors.  The compare the present circumstance to past Roman, Ottoman and British Empires, where currency debasement and soaring gold prices acted as warning signs of TERMINAL DECLINE.

• 
  Like when?  Fall of Rome, Spain's imperial decline the French Revolution and the end of Bretton Woods (the agreement establishing today's international monetary system.

• 
  Mike Duncan, host of The History of Rome and Revolutions podcast told Rolling Stone that the U.S. is showing the classic signs of an empire past its peak that could lead to terminal failure.  Again, the use of TERMINAL.  He sees strong similarities between the late Roman Republic and modern America.

• 
  Peter Turchin, a historian and data theorist at the University of Connecticut, in 2010 predicted that the U.S. would enter a period of deep unrest beginning around 2020.  The trends of elite overproduction, stagnating wages and fiscal strain will trigger collapse, and all these factors are only gaining in power.  Its not a prophecy, but, modeling feedback loops that repeat with alarming regularity.

What a way to end the week.  However, I asked Google AI about the prospects for TERMINAL FINANCIAL FAILURE soon.  Responded, highly unlikely, for the U.S. economy is currently growing, though at a slower pace than in recent years, and market indicators show continued strength despite existing risks. While a complete financial collapse is not predicted, the U.S. does face several significant economic challenges:  high and growing public debt, persistent inflation, cost-of-living crisis, political polarization and policy uncertainty, and uneven economic effects of AI.  In summary, the consensus among economists is that the US is not heading for a "terminal failure" but is navigating a period of uncertainty and modest growth.  That's reassuring.

However, I then asked Google AI, about the imminent fate of our World Civilization.  

A world civilization collapse in the near future is not a certainty, but a possibility that receives extensive debate from scientists and researchers

. Factors such as climate change, ecological degradation, political instability, and overexploitation of resources are often cited as putting humanity on a potentially dangerous trajectory. However, this future is not set in stone, and humans have demonstrated the capacity to respond to long-term threats. 

My sense is that we will survive.  I thus close with Gloria Gaynor's I Will Survive.

No, this is not good enough.  You can read the book, The Future of Humanity by Michio Kaku.  He says we will someday live forever, or something like that.  Watch him on You Tube articulating on a more optimistic future for us.

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