WHY HAS MOST OF AFRICA AVOIDED THE DEATHS CAUSED BY COVID-19?

  We have suffered five COVID-19 waves.  Will there be a 6th?

Initially, cases were dominated by large cities, which are mostly Democratic.  Thus, the first wave experience a lot fewer Republican deaths.  Later waves gravitated towards fewer Democratic deaths.

A higher percentage of Biden-voters get vaccinated.  Over 91% of Democrats have had at least one shot, and only 60% of Republicans.

The primary reason is vaccination, as per million population, 250 deaths occurred in Trump counties, compared to 78 in Biden counties.

About that possible 6th wave?  Most likely, when the Omicron Stealth B2 subvariant creates a mild bump in April.  Then, WHO can pretty much declare the end of this pandemic.  But I've now said this at least three times.

Incidentally, just about 25% of Americans have been infected with COVID-19.  World?  Only 6%.  

Of course, this is where asymptomaticity and under reporting come into play.  If it turns out that the asymptomatic rate is 50%, then 50% of Americans have been infected.  This rate, though, could also be 88%, meaning with all those vaccinations, we must already be at a high level of herd immunity.

Would I want to be tested for antibodies to determine if I caught COVID-19 and was asymptomatic?  Take-home kit costs around $7 at your pharmacy.  Not really, although I do plan to get my second booster when the CDC allows this.  Official word could occur today, and almost certainly will by the end of the week.

The global fear has long been Africa.  Aside from South Africa and spotty upsurges in a few other countries, the cases and deaths/million rates have been astonishingly low.  Take Kamakwie, Sierra Leone, for example:

• Three doctors for every 100,000 people.  The U.S. has a ten times higher rate.
• Only 11 total cases since the pandemic began.
• However, regional hospitals are packed with malaria patients.
• Very little capability in hospitals for serious COVID cases if they occurred.
• People cram together for soccer matches and concerts with no masks.
• 14% of population has been vaccinated.

But, to no one's surprise, it turns out the official COVID-19 African statistics are seriously flawed because tests are rarely taken and deaths are woefully undercounted.  Throughout Africa, preliminary analysis suggests that 65% of those living in Africa have been infected.  Sierra Leone could well be 78%.  U.S. rate?  24%.  However, there remains uncertainty about the asymptomatic rate, and if this is 50%, as could be possible, the infection rate would still be less than 50%.

But then, why are there so few deaths?

• 
  The median age is only 19, compared to 43 in Europe and 38 in the U.S.  Very few young people die from COVID-19.
• Asymptomatic rate increases with age.  Chances are that younger people have four times the asymptomatic rate as the elderly.
• The young population of that continent means that few have underlying health issues.
• Africa is mostly hot, and warm weather lowers the rate of infection.
• Perhaps exposure to other pathogens like Lassa fever and Ebola offers protection.
• People mostly die in homes, not hospitals.
• 
  During Zambia's delta wave, 87% of bodies in hospital morgues were infected with COVID.
• Population of 19 million.
• 316,550 cases, or 1923 cases/million.  U.S. rate is 244,376/million!  How can Zambia have a case count 1/127 of the U.S.?
• Zambia:  3966 deaths, or 209 deaths/million.  U.S. rate is 3004 deaths/million.
• In most African countries they don't test for COVID-19 at death, so of course there will be a much lower COVID-19 death count.

In short, the median age of the World is 30, while that of Africa is 19.  Also, while the U.S. has 16% of our population older than 64, Africa has only 7%.  In the U.S. 80% of all COVID-19 deaths came from this older age group?

Notwithstanding, the African Paradox of so few dying is a turning out to be at least partially explained by gross under reporting.   

• The World Health Organization last month said that the number of coronavirus cases may be 7 times higher than what has been reported, and deaths could be 2-3 times higher.
• The USA with a population of 344 million just passed a million deaths.  Africa with 1.2 billion people only had 251,444 deaths as of 15March2022.  Multiply by three and you only have 772,332 deaths.  This big differential must be because of undercounting in Africa.

There was a time when rich countries were accused of taking care of themselves, leaving Africa vulnerable.  While this has indeed happened, for the U.S. today shows a doses-given rate of 168/100 (meaning each person received 1.68 shots), with the world average at 142/100, compare that to 0.9/100 for the Congo and 2.5/100 for Chad.   The growing sense is that, while the rich got safer faster, Africa was too late to get "saved" anyway, and the universal priority today is to get the elderly, anywhere, vaccinated and boosted.  They are the only ones significantly vulnerable to potential death from COVID.

Finally, keep a watch on African population growth.  In this projection, Nigeria replaces China as #2 by 2100, which in a few years will be topped by India.

Did you know that the USA today has the third largest world population?  We would drop to #4 by 2100 because of Nigeria.  From only one today, five of the ten most populated countries in 2100 will be from Africa.

Yesterday I reported that Will Smith slapped Chris Rock at the Academy Award ceremonies.  In Smith's speech accepting an Oscar for Best Actor, he apologized to everyone, but Rock.  He later added Chris Rock.

March Madness sneaks into April for the final fours:

• Women:
• On Friday, April Fool's Day in Target Center, Minneapolis, it will be South Carolina vs Louisville (7PM EDT on ESPN) and Stanford vs Connecticut (9:30PM), which was the only non-#1 to reach this game.

• 
  The heavy favorite is South Carolina, picked to beat Louisville by 8 points.  UConn is a 1.5 point favorite to win over Stanford.

• 
  The winners will meet on Sunday, April 3.
• South Carolina:  -150, or bet $150 to win $100, plus your original $150--or another way of looking at these odds is that South Carolina has a 60% chance to win the national championship.
• Connecticut:  +200
• Stanford:  +400
• Louisville:  +800 (or 11% chance of winning championship)
• 
  Men:
• On Saturday, April 2, Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, it will be Kansas as a 3.5 point pick over Villanova at 6:09PM EDT on TBS, and Duke is a 4 point pick to beat North Carolina at 8:49PM EDT.  
• Did you know that the Superdome name changed last year from Mercedes-Benz to Caesars?  

• 
  The sentimental favorite is Duke, for this will be head coach Mike Krzyzewski's final game.  I still have trouble spelling and pronouncing his name.
• The winners will meet on Monday, April 4, at 9:10PM EDT on TBS.
• Before the Sweet 16, the odds agains Duke being champion were 14:1.
• Today, Duke is favored to win the championship at +160 (38.5%).

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