THE PERILOUS AND PRECARIOUS NATURE OF NATURAL GAS

Just a matter of time before Russia subjugates Ukraine.  Better than Vladimir Putin getting desperate and initiating nuclear warfare.  As President Joe Biden's State of the Union address underscored, though, is that the Free World is united against what Putin is doing.  Russia will run Ukraine for many years to come, but will nevertheless suffer for a longer time as a universal pariah.

Biden didn't quite go that far, but what he said about this pandemic is sufficient to interpret that it is over and we should return to a new normal.  It has been two full years, the worst experienced by anyone alive.  The previous, the Spanish Flu, a century ago, might have killed a lot more people, 50 million versus 6 million for COVID-19, but did swiftly disappear without a vaccine.  The other worst of its kind was almost two millennia ago, The Black Death of 1346-1353, bubonic plague, caused by a flea, said to have killed off 30%-50% the population of Europe.  Then again, a recent study suggests that it wasn't as bad as depicted.  Whether it is a century or millennia, we should be wary and prepared, but, perhaps don't need to too concerned, for these global pandemics do not come by too often.

I keep repeating this, but did you know that boosted Americans are 97 times less likely to die of COVID-19 than the unvaccinated?

The American Energy Society sends me a weekly summary, Energy Today.  Frankly, I don't know who they really are, but this organization only has been active for a little more than a decade, says it has 135,000 friends, and seems to report on useful energy matters.  On this science Wednesday, here are some highlights:

• 
  Most important energy/environment court cases to be considered by the U.S. Supreme Court:
• Key is West Virginia vs the EPA, which would weaken the Federal governments ability to reduce greenhouse emissions.  Here, 19 mostly Republican-led states and coal companies want to limit the authority of the Environmental Protection Agency.  The White House wants to cut greenhouse gas emissions in half by the end of the decade.  This would be impossible if this conservative court sides with Republicans and coal.
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  The social cost of carbon, known as a negative externality, or the calculated cost to society, with a value larger than the price of energy.  In 2007 the U.S. 9th Circuit Court determined that a uniform monetary value for carbon emissions is an allowable and appropriate tool for federal regulatory agencies.  Known as Massachusetts vs the EPA, 13 Republican states are fighting this decision.

• 
  The Biden administration revoked the Keystone XL pipeline, but a lower court allowed pipeline operations to begin.  Eventually, the Supreme Court will judge pipeline matters.
• Leasing of Federal Lands.  Essentially, environmentalist, supported by Democratic administrations, oppose the leasing of public land to the oil and gas industry.  Republicans do the contrary.

You would think that global climate warming is so serious that these issues would easily be settled by survival logic.  Not so, as fossil fuel companies provide generous support to Republicans, and they do what the source tells.  Our Supreme Court has nine justices, and six are conservative.  The new incoming one will be liberal, but that means Conservatives will still have a 6-3 advantage.  Looks like the USA will more and more become less and less supportive of restricting power plant effluents and control of carbon dioxide emissions.  About that graphic to the left, you can delete Stephen Breyer and someday add Ketanji Brown Jackson.

• 
  One reason why Putin invaded Ukraine:

To a great extent, the timing of Russia's attack on Ukraine is directly related to the tight world energy market. From mid-2014 until the onset of the global pandemic in 2020, Russian gas sold for less than $10 per million metric British thermal units, and sometimes less than $5 (all USD). But the low prices of the 2010s discouraged investment in new supply, setting the conditions for higher prices in the 2020s. As the world economy began to recover from the pandemic, so did the price of gas. The price of Russian gas on spot markets surpassed $10 per million metric BTUs in June 2021, then $15, then $20; it’s now about $30.

• 
  Russia is the #2 exporter of natural gas.
• Natural gas is why Russia has stashed $630 billion in gold, a country with GDP of $1.5 trillion.

• In 1966 the prediction was that the U.S. would run out of natural gas (mostly methane) in the 1990's.  Then came fracking of shale gas:

• Did you know that the USA produces the most natural gas in the world, although we regularly exchange leadership with Russia:

• 
  #5 natural gas producer is Qatar.  
• Reserves of natural gas remaining in trillion cubic meters:
• #1  Russia  47.8 
• #2  Iran  33.7 
• #3  Qatar  24.1
• #4 USA  15.5
• #5  Saudi Arabia  9.2
• Big Island of Hawaii  zero???
• Size of those countries in square miles:
• Russia  6,612,000
• Iran  636,400
• Qatar  4468
• USA  3,797,000
• Saudi Arabia  830,000
• Big Island of Hawaii  4068 
• Can you believe this?
• Qatar is only about the size of the Big Island, but is ranked #3 in natural gas reserves.
• Qatar is 850 times smaller than the USA, but they have more natural gas reserves than us.
• 
  In 2010 I spent 5 days in Qatar.  Read this comparison between Hawaii and that country.
• While there I posted on THE WONDER OF QATAR.  This is by far my most popular article from this blog site.
• No unemployment or homeless.
• Citizens don't pay any tax.
• Education and medical care are free.
• It is perfectly safe to walk anywhere, anytime...if you can stand the heat.
• 5 liters of gasoline cost $1...5 liters of bottled water cost $2.50!!!
• In 2011 I wrote an article for the Huffington Post:  Can Qatar Lead the World Toward Sustainability?

As I said before, natural gas is mostly methane, more specifically, 70-90%.  

• That article says that 76% of the American public perceives natural gas favorably, much higher than oil at 51% and coal at 39%.  
• While natural gas is indeed natural, and is the simplest fossil fuel, keep in mind that methane is a very dangerous global heating gas.  Each molecule is from 15 to 125 times more dangerous for capturing sunlight than one of carbon carbon dioxide.  

• 
  The wide range depends on various factors.  This article says the following:
• Over a 20-year period, methane is 80 times more potent at warming than carbon dioxide.
• Methane has accounted for roughly 30% of global warming since pre-industrial times, and is proliferating faster than at any other time since record keeping began in the 1980s.

There are three household gases of importance, and all of them have no obvious smell.  

• If you are in a room with oxygen in a container, there is always the danger of an explosion.  Not sure how many deaths occur per year, but even this necessary gas can be a problem.
• You've felt carbon dioxide as dry ice, and worry about its prominence for global warming.  As it is 1.5 times heavier than air, it is possible that there could be sufficient accumulation in an enclosed space to kill you, but this would occur in the workplace rather than at home.  Perhaps 10,000 deaths occur in the world annually.  However, one study suggests that up to 2 million die annually from, effectively, global warming.
• Carbon monoxide is particularly worrisome, for more than 35,000 people die annually by breathing this gas.  Need to be careful about warming or using a generator in an enclosed space, for under improperly ventilated conditions, the combustion of any fuel can also produce a sufficient amount of this gas to replace the oxygen you breathe.
• Natural gas is mostly methane, which is not particularly dangerous as a toxic gas, but can result in an explosion at higher concentrations.  Thus, a malodorant is used is used so you can smell the danger.
• Natural gas explosions kill maybe 400 per year.
• Methane might the cause of The Venus Syndrome, which could in time wipe out all life on Planet Earth.

Today begins Lent.  Yesterday was Fat Tuesday, and my evening dinner focused on Popeyes chicken, founded in New Orleans, and Ramos Gin Fizz:

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