WHICH COUNTRY WILL WIN THE BEIJING WINTER OLYMPICS?

  From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

          DAY  USA  WORLD    Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9     1093     4732         1185        246       82

July    22      1205     7128         1293      1120     572

Aug    12      1504     6556        1242        835     130

Sept     9      1208      6222       1136       1168       82

Oct     21      1225      6849         571        703       85

Nov    25       2304    12025        620        518      118

Dec    30       3880    14748       1224       299      465

Jan     14       4142    15512       1151       189      712

Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398

Mar     2        1989     9490        1726       110      194

April   6         906     11787         4211       631       37

May    4         853     13667        3025      3786      59 

June   1         287    10637         2346      3205      95

 July   7          251      8440        1595        817     411

Aug    4          656    10120        1118         532     423 

Sept  22       2228      9326          839        279     124

Oct    6         2102      8255          543        315       59

Nov   3         1436      7830         186         458       23

Dec    1        1633      8475          266        477       28

Jan    7         2025      6729         148        285      140

       14          2303      7872         238        430      128

       21          2777      9091         396        489      103

       26          3143   10,554         606        575        94

Feb   2          2990   12,012         946        991      175

Summary:

• Terrible, but not as bad as a year ago.
• USA finally lost the #1 position in new cases/day, 302,177, to France, with 315,963.
• In terms of new cases/million population:  
• U.S. 905
• Worst is Alaska at 2484, followed by Mississippi 1980, Wyoming 1856, Kentucky 1638, North Dakota 1624 and Kansas at 1543
• Washington, Oregon, Missouri, Arizona, Indiana, South Carolina, Alabama, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Utah, Arkansas, New Mexico, West Virginia, Idaho, Montana and Vermont are all north of 1000
• France 4824
• Slovenia  11254
• Denmark  8967
• Portugal  5388
• Czechia  5348
• Guaeloupe  21618
• Faroe Island  14449
• Japan  637
• India  123
• South Africa 74
• Indonesia  64
• Taiwan  2
• China 0.04  

While you might have already seen some preliminary events of the Beijing Winter Olympics, it officially starts tomorrow, and, actually today, for it is already Friday, February 4, in China.  There is only one time zone in the entire country.  Noon in Beijing (the day before) is 1AM in New York and 8PM in Hawaii.   Beijing is only 669 miles from Pyeongchang, the 2018 Winter Olympics site.

In any case, four women's ice hockey matches have already been played, with China losing to Czech Republic, Japan beating Sweden, the USA (the gold medalist four years ago--but now with some injuries) winning 5-2 over Finland, and Canada (they earned four gold medals in a row until the USA beat them in 2018 South Korea) crushing Switzerland, 12-1.  Only rarely in ice hockey and soccer does a team reach two digits.  Canada intends to win the gold this year.

So to the question posed above, the answer is Norway, for they won four years, and is favorite to prevail again.    A repeat is recently rare, for Russia prevailed in 2014, the U.S. in 2010 and Germany 2006.  Germany won the most golds in 2018.   The U.S. Over or Under for medals is 22.5.

Sports Illustrated picks all the medalists.  They select ROC (Russia Olympic Committee--yes, the country remains in the penalty box) to again gain gold for men's ice hockey.  The USA is listed at +1250 for sixth place.  Again, the NHL will not send professionals for fear of the pandemic.

But remember back to the 1980 Miracle on Ice?  The Soviet Union was priced at +10000 to win the gold, or at 99%.  

The weather in 2018 Pyeongchang was at times terrible, with winds up to 50 miles, endangering skiing and snowboarding athletes.  Lot of injuries.  2022 Winter Olympics, cold but stable.  Daytime temperatures down to 3 F, way below 32 F, which is freezing, can be expected at Zhangjiakou, which goes up to an elevation of 2349 feet.

What to watch and when?  First, note that everything will only be on NBC, including  CNBC, with the USA network, owned by NBC, being very prominent.

Thursday, February 3 (Day -1):

•  2018 Olympic team bronze medalist Nathan Chen (Salt Lake City, Utah) will make his Beijing debut as the figure skating team event commences.
• When: 8 p.m. on NBC and Peacock 

Friday, February 4 (Day 0):

• The Opening Ceremony begins at 6:30 a.m. ET on NBC and Peacock. There will be a full day of unprecedented coverage, click here for the full schedule of events.
• When: 6:30 a.m on NBC and Peacock

As these Olympics are unabashedly nationalistic, the American favorite is 26-year-old Mikaela Shiffrin, who will compete in all five individual downhill skiing events.  Watch her on Sunday in the Giant Slalom.

Another to watch is now American 36-year-old Kaillie Humphries in the bobsled.  Why?  She's won several medals for Canada in the past, got ticked off with her country, and gained U.S. citizenship two months ago.  There is  a new event she will compete in called the monobob. 

In reverse, Eileen Gu was born in San Francisco of an American father and Chinese mother, but will be skiing for China.  See her first on Monday.  She last year became the new ambassador for Tiffany & Company.  Eileen is 17, and headed for Stanford University.

What about COVID?  As of February 1, eleven athletes and officials had tested positive after arriving in Beijing, which is almost as much the whole country shows daily, if you believe them.  Worst yet, on February 2, 55 additional new COVID-19 infections were found among Olympic-games related personnel.

More and more, females particularly, athletes have aired their mental issues.  Apparently, after snowboarder gold medalist Chloe Kim at 17 won a gold in 2018, she suffered from severe anxiety and tossed her medal into the trash, but retrieved it.  She became a Princeton student and abandoned the sport, to return two years ago and is now favored to win again this year.  See her first on Tuesday.  Shaun White also snowboards that day.

Most dominant athlete?  Canada's Mikael Kingsbury in the mogul, which is a freestyle skiing event with an obstacle course of bumps and mounds.  He is defending gold medalist and 9-time overall World Cup champion, and is only 29 years old.  He first performs on Saturday.

Day 9 will be a challenge.  Erin Jackson of the USA will speed skate.  However, this is Super Bowl day, and the Bengals meet the Rams.  Big eating event for me.  Kaillie Humphries will do the monobob after the game.

On Day 17, 16 year old American Alysa Liu competes in the Women's Free Skate.  She is the first female to land both a triple Axel and a quad Lutz in the same program.  Note the prominence of Americans of Chinese ancestry.  Her lawyer father arrived from China for schooling, and all five of his children came from anonymous egg donors and surrogate mothers.

Saturday, February 19 is the final day of competition.  The Closing Ceremony in the same Bird's Nest National Stadium that was the setting for the 2008 Beijing Summer Olympics, occurs at 8PM Sunday on NBC.  This will be 8AM Monday in Beijing, which means that NBC is delaying the broadcast, for the official closing starts at 8PM Sunday in China.

I'll close with my pick of the greatest victory in Winter Olympics history.  Drum roll please.  That Miracle on Ice, all 1 hr and 52 minutes of the game, with Al Michaels.  Watch it again.

Maybe #2, the Jamaican Bobsled Team in 1988, a team of four where none had ever before seen snow.  They failed to complete, and walked to the finishline with sled in hand.  But Disney later released Cool Runnings, gaining76/81 ratings from Rotten Tomatoes.  This is the whole film.  John Candy's final performance.  Jimmy Cliff performs a cover of Johnny Nash's I Can See Clearly Now.

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