Just when you thought that this pandemic might soon be over, scientists have found the BA.2 virus, another subvariant of the Omicron variant, which could well be a little more contagious and, this is the bad part, more virulent, perhaps in the range of the Delta variant. Plus, vaccinations are not as effective, even though a booster helps to prevent a person from death even if infected. Current tests seem not to work as well, and it is possible that this is something new and not directly related to Omicron. It's too early to tell if all that is true, but be aware.
Early signs hint that this B.2, named the Stealth Subvariant, might be behind the sudden jump of new cases in Denmark.
Early this month Denmark decided that the risk of dying from COVID-19 had dropped to a safe level so even while new cases remained a concern, they removed all restrictions to return to normality. No need for indoor masks, ignore vaccine passports and open up nightclubs. Not smart:
- Yesterday, Denmark had 33,699 new cases, or 5810 new cases/million population. Compared to other countries, in new cases/million:
- USA 325
- World 245
- Germany 2453 (led the world yesterday with 206,037 new cases)
- Austria 3463
- South Africa 46
- Australia 986
- South Korea 2153 (just had the highest number of new cases ever, even though 85% of its population have been fully vaccinated)
- Singapore 3067 (highest number of new cases ever, even with nearly 99% of eligible population fully vaccinated)
- Several countries in the Orient are suddenly being overwhelmed by some subvariant of Omicron. New deaths numbers will rise soon for those countries suddenly jumping in new cases (new deaths/million/day):
- South Korea 0.9
- Singapore 1.2
- Denmark 7.4
- USA 6.2
- World 1.3
- Are countries prematurely declaring victory to normalize their lifestyle?
- What is a tolerable number of deaths/million/day?
- Traffic deaths 0.5
- World deaths from everything 22.5
- COVID-19 deaths 1.3
- Clearly Denmark is prematurely lifting all restrictions, for that 7.4 new deaths/million/day will rise in a week or two.
- The U.S. should drop in a week or two from the current 6.2.
- So what is a tolerable number of deaths/million/day for COVID-19? Tough question to answer.
- If you use the current statistics for mortality rate for the World--which is 1.4%--those 109,828 new cases/day for South Korea will be 1538 new deaths/day in two weeks. That would be 30 new deaths/million/day, which is clearly intolerable.
- However, this Omicron variant has a lower mortality rate, and something closer to 0.5% might be more realistic. On this basis, there might well be 539 new deaths/day in two weeks, which would be 10.6 new deaths/million/day, still too high.
- But you need to crank in a factor for those who are fully vaccinated and boosted. 86% of the South Korean population is considered to be fully vaccinated (and they will soon add a second booster shot). As this vaxxed condition protects around 97% of them from dying, the number of deaths will probably end up around 100 in two weeks. This would then be 2 deaths/million/day in two weeks. Compare this number with the U.S. today at 6.2 and Denmark at 7.4.
- If we keep driving when we know that there will be 0.5 deaths/million/day, certainly that number is one to consider.
- But maybe for the sake of the economy and sanity a doubling to 1 death/million/day might be acceptable.
- If all this math is totally losing you, that is the nature of this pandemic. The medical knowledge keeps shifting because of subvariants. The attitude of the masses also changes in the direction of allowing more freedom. If that B.2 subvariant turns out to be a dud, the pandemic might be deemed over this summer. But if this new virus is truly virulent, then the unvaccinated will more and more be eliminated. I keep saying that the Republican party is fracturing. Here is yet another reason why.
Sixteen days ago before the Beijing Winter Olympics began, I predicted that Norway would win the most medals and the under/over for the USA would be 22.5.
- Indeed Norway will prevail, at it has already accumulated 35 medals.
- That dastardly Russian Olympic Committee (ROC), which shouldn't have been allowed to participate, is #2 with 31 medals.
- As of this moment we are tied with Germany at #4 with 24 medals, so we have exceeded predicted expectations. Thus, to answer the question at the top, we did well.
- All the UK (known as Great Britain in Beijing) could do was win one medal, a silver.
- It all ends today, with the final ceremonies occurring tomorrow.
The biggest failure was Mikaela Shiffrin. However, did you know that she tested positive for COVID-19 only 6 weeks before the Games started? In three of her races she barely got started and disqualified herself. However, she did not go into hiding and appeared to be okay from a mental standpoint. The team alpine skiing competition was supposed to be held last night, but was postponed until today because of strong winds. She will be involved. There will be 14 other teams. But high winds are expected. NBC will begin coverage at 8PM eastern time.
The USA was shut out in curling. Every day I watched, some curling event was occurring. The other sport that kept coming back on the screen was the biathlon. This is the one combining skiing and shooting. An American has never won a medal in this sport. You know how many hours NBC and its affiliates spent on showing these events? I don't want to know, but it was too high.
Both American ice hockey teams failed to get the gold, but the women did gain a silver, losing to Canada. The gold medal men's game will occur today with Finland vs ROC, and will be covered on NBC at 11:10 PM eastern time tonight.
The women (Kaillie Humphries and Elana Meyers Taylor) did well in bobsled events. Germany dominated, not only the gold medals but just about everything else.
The star of the whole Games was Eileen Gu, an American representing China. She won two golds and a silver in freeski. When the story of her father ever gets told, we might learn that she could be the product of molecular genetics, her intended major at Stanford when she steps on campus in September.
All in all, the Beijing Winter Olympics went well. 436 athletes, coaches and stakeholders tested positive for COVID-19, but nothing was cancelled because of the pandemic. The next Olympics event will be Paris from July 26 to August 11 in 2024.
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