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THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS FRACTURING

 Until Omicron, Japan had managed to keep COVID-19 at bay.  

  • However, this pandemic has bitten the country, and new cases over the past few days have been averaging around 100,000/day.  
  • While that is only around 800/million population, the U.S. was #2 in new cases yesterday, but we are now down to 536/million.  
  • Hawaii was once up to 4466/million a month ago, but yesterday dropped to 381/million.
  • The country with the most new cases yesterday was Germany with 212,724, or 2532/million.
  • Denmark is way up there at 8110/million.  As terrible as it has been,  the country began to lift restrictions last month, and earlier this month became the first European nation to say no face masks necessary anymore.  They don't even check your vaccination status in bars and restaurants.  Said Prime Minister Mette Fredricksen, we welcome a completely open Denmark.  Am I missing something???
  • However, not as bad as Reunion in the India Ocean at 33,976/million and Martinique in the Caribbean with 22,672.
  • While here and there daily cases are clearly now mostly dropping, the pandemic continues.
  • For example, you don't want to travel to the Indian Ocean and Caribbean, and certainly should still avoid Europe.
If you follow this blog site, you are aware that I should now be on a world cruise, which was cancelled by the cruise company....thankfully:
  • Today, we were supposed to arrive in New Zealand, which remains in total lockdown with respect to tourists.  This is a country that for the past two days have had only slightly over 200 new cases/day, or 40 new cases/million
  • Early in March we were scheduled to make it to the Dubai World Expo.  How are they doing?
    • On December there were 69 new cases/day.  That is 21 new cases/million.
    • That jumped to 1846 on December 28, or 559 new cases/million.
    • A January 22 Forbes article indicated that the Expo now employs pushy Siemens terminus robots to enforce mask-wearing.
    • There were strong rumors that this new wave might soon terminate the Expo, but new infections are now down to 163/million.
  • 90% of United Arab Emirates (to which Dubai belongs) citizens are fully vaccinated.
  • The tourist office says UAE and Dubai are much safer than the states.  Which is true because the USA has 536 new cases/million, while the UAE is at 163/million.

Now on to the topic of the day, the President's party almost always has a bad midterm.  Add to that the clearly unfair gerrymandered maps emerging, even supported by the Supreme Court, plus the voting restrictions being legislated into law in Republican-controlled states, and virtually everyone is predicting a Republican certainty for House control, and maybe too, the Senate, on November 8.

My contention is that just the opposite will occur because of the Trump-effect.  To quote David Atkins of the Washington Monthly:

But Trump didn’t really take over or save the Republican Party. Trump’s greatest gift to Republicans is also his greatest curse: He gave them permission to be their worst selves. By liberating the GOP to embrace its most noxious impulses, he has breathed new life into the staid culture that nominated John McCain and Mitt Romney while destroying basic norms of public decency and weakening the guardrails of democracy. This has come at a devastating cost to the victims of the hatreds Trump fueled. Despite short-term appearances, unmasking the GOP base’s most vicious instincts might also be disastrous for the party in the long term.

And further:

All of that pretense is now gone. Today’s Republican politics is deliriously brazen and overtly cruel, finding its glory in taking and using power by any means necessary—and behaving openly hostile to both democracy and norms of decency. There is no good-faith attempt in Republican-controlled states or Congress to govern to solve problems. There is only an endless stream of legislation designed to secure anti-majoritarian power, harm Democratic constituencies, or get the attention of the culture-war-obsessed conservative media propaganda organs that actually dictate who thrives and perishes in the GOP. Stop the libs from taking power at all costs; own the libs however you can; get hits on Fox News, Newsmax, and OAN. There is nothing else. It worked for Trump—why wouldn’t it work for all the rest?

The Republican Party today is in fact the Trump Party.  They insist on reinforcing the Big Lie, and are digging their own grave by portraying the 6January2021 attack on the Capital as justified and pardonable. 

Here is the problem:

  • There is a core of Republicans who believe in Democracy and morality.  They loathe the dishonest, unethical and debauched nature of what Trump represents.  If only 5% (and there surely must be more) of them decide not to vote for the Trump candidate (they don't need to vote for the Democrat candidate...they can just leave their ballot unmarked) on 8November2022 many close races will go to Democrats.
  • But that's not all.  There are more Independents than Republicans or Democrats.  The latest Gallup poll showed:
    • Independents  46%
    • Republicans   24%
    • Democrats      28%
  • Independent voting shifts from year to year depending on a variety of factors.
    • If only 5% (and there surely must be more) of them also can't stand Donald Trump, and they too choose not to vote for any Trump candidates, Republicans are doomed.
    • Worse, some of this group will actually vote for the Democrat candidate on 8November2022.
  • As of 8February2022, the Cook Political Report shows 54 House races in some degree of uncertainty.  32 of them are toss-ups or lean one way or the other.  It is this latter group that will shift in the Democratic direction because of the Trump-effect.
  • In the Senate, the Democrats already have a good advantage.
    • Up for re-election are 20 Republican seats and 14 Democrat seats.
    • Three of those Democrat seats are  in the toss-up category and one leans toward the Democrat.
    • Three of those Republican seats are toss-up and two lean Republican.
    • Because of the Trump-effect, chances are that Democrats could well prevail in 6 of the uncertain races, with three to Republicans.  
    • As a result, the Senate in 2023 could feature 53 Democrats and 47 Republicans.
    • Should that happen, no problem for Biden with Manchin and Sinema.
On February 4 Mike Pence actually said that President Trump is wrong in claiming that Pence had the right to overturn the 2020 election on January 6, 2021.  Meanwhile, no doubt with his blessing, Marc Short (the tall guy), Pence's chief of staff, has been testifying before the House select committee.  Someone has to lead the Republican opposition when Trump goes down in a variety of court cases this year.  The Hill named Pence, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (who too is becoming somewhat confrontational with Trump), Nikki Haley (who had infuriated Trump for criticizing his refusal accept the 2020 election and role on January 6), Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and a few others.  Not a formidable cast.

Then this morning Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell smacked down the Republican National Party for censuring GOP Representatives Liz Cheney and Adam Kinziger.  Yes, the party is indeed fraying.

I don't see Joe Biden running in 2024, for he will be reaching the age of 82 in November of that year.  The Hill also lists ten candidates if Biden passes, led by Kamala Harris.  But 2024 is too far away to do much speculation today.
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