WHAT CAUSED PUTIN TO BACK OFF ON UKRAINE?

On February 1 I posted on WHAT DO YOU KNOW ABOUT UKRAINE?  To quote:

There is too much history linked to Ukraine that the thought of their joining the European Union deeply agitates Vladimir Putin.

There all kinds of reason why Putin is focused on Ukraine.  Here is one that probably makes the most sense.

The current issue of TIME magazine has a rather lengthy article by Simon Shuster with a sub-theme, GREAT WARS SOMETIMES START OVER SMALL OFFENSES.  I can't link you to it because you're not a subscriber.  World War I, for example, was triggered when Austrian archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated.

The story begins in 2004 when Daria Medvedchuk was born in Ukraine.  Her father, Victor, asked a close friend, Vladimir Putin, to christen her in the Orthodox tradition they shared.  The families are close, for they holiday together on the Black Sea and conduct business on the side.

About Viktor Medvedchuk: 

• Previously in 1990 to 1997 was president of the Bar Association of Ukraine.  He is a lawyer, not a drinks server.  
• 
  Went on in 2019 to become chairman of the pro-Russia Ukrainian Choice.  
• That year led his opposition party to win 37 seats in the Parliament, including his.
• On 19February2021 (this was a year ago) Medvedchuk and his wife were accused of treason and attempted looting of national resources, and has since 13 May 2021 been under house arrest, with assets frozen.  This is illegal because Ukrainian law allows for a maximum of six months of house arrest.

About Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy:

• Is Jewish, with father a noted professor and mother an engineer.
• Volodymyr went on to graduate from law school, but became an actor and comedian.
• He beat incumbent president Petro Poroshenko in 2019 with 73% of the votes.
• A few months later, Zelenskyy received that pressure call from President Donald Trump to investigate Joe Biden and his son Hunter.
• In November of 2020 he tested positive for COVID-19.

So after Joe Biden became president in 2021, Zelensky got tough on Medvedchuck, placed him under house arrest and blacked out his TV channels. Two days later, just about a year ago, Putin announced the deployment of 3,000 paratroopers to the border with Ukraine for training.  More and more came and now there are around 150,000.

Look at this from Putin's point of view.  His close Ukrainian friend has pretty much been treated similar to how he has handled his rival, Alexei Navalny.  Tried poisoning, and failing that, jailed him.  He can't let the U.S. and Zelenskyy get away with what Putin has done.  That could well be the crux of the matter.

So what seems to be the happening?  Apparently Russia is pulling back and there won't be a war.  Why?  I suspect Putin got what he wanted.  First, in time, restoring Viktor Medvedchuk to the same status he had before Zelenskyy jailed his rival.  Second, no doubt now that Russia will sell gas to Germany using the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline, which is valued at $11 billion.  Third, Navalny will someday be allowed to leave the country.  Ukraine won't be saying much about joining NATO.

Why I like dogs more than cats:

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