HOW SAFE IS FLYING?

 I yesterday posted on how COVID is changing.  To conclude, Time magazine reported on The New Vaccines to Get in 2024:

1. This week the CDC provided their new guidelines on everything from COVID-19 to the flu to chickenpox.
2. There is a new updated COVID vaccine targeting the Omicron variant XVV.15, which protects against evolving strains like the JN.1 variant.
1. This version is now responsible for more than half on U.S. cases.
2. JN.1 is more infectious or severe than other SARS-CoV-2 variants.
3. Anti-vaccine sentiment is on the rise in the country.
1. Much of this resistance comes from Republicans.
2. In fact, two years ago it was revealed that Donald Trump, through his policies when president, killed more than 400,000 Americans!!!
3. However, attitudes today reflect a broader avoidance, as only 20% of U.S. adults got the previous latest booster.
4. Vaccinated individuals are four times likelier to AVOID LONG COVID!
5. The good common sense today is to still wear masks in public.
6. The federal government has not returned to mandates to allow people to better enjoy life.  
1. This might be a mistake.
2. According to Ashish Jha, who served as the White House COVID-19 response coordinator from 2022-2023:  For a lot of people it's been about, 'How do we go back to 2019, to life before the pandemic?'"  But, in his view, that's not the right goal: "We actually want to look forward."

Now on to the posting of today.  With all the brouhaha about the exploding door plug and the Boeing 737 being responsible for 346 deaths in Indonesia (2018) and Ethiopia (2019), ever wonder how safe it is to fly?  And, by the way, these airlines fly the Boeing 737 Max 9.

The thought of being ensconced in a speeding bullet does give me pause.  A jetliner moves along at around 550 miles per hour, while a handgun like a .38 special has a muzzle velocity of 590 MPH.  However, a 28 mm can go up to 1387 MPH and a .357 Magnum up to 968 MPH.

Regarding planes, there is one death for every 10 billion miles traveled.  Train travel has 4 deaths for that distance.  From 1982 to 2018, the world has had 2253 plane crashes  and 1290 deaths/year.  Or, 47,000 deaths in that period.  More than half of crashes occur on landing and takeoff.

Sure looks like a lot of crashes, but scheduled commercial flights were responsible only for around 10% of them.  Wikipedia reports 83,772 air deaths since 1970, and Statista shows this graph from 1942 to 2015.

So you say, yikes, flying is dangerous.  Well, compared to what?  How's this?

Remember that air travel kills 0.1/billion miles.

• Certainly don't skydive, for that's 7,500 deaths/billion miles.  You would think that the following graphic might seem like this is safe.  But, no.

• 
  Motorcycles kill at a 1,640/billion mile rate.
• Your car is 400 times worse than air travel.
• Just walking equals a car.
• In case you wanted to be an astronaut: 17,000,000 deaths/billion miles.

But you say, air travel goes far, and other modes, less so.  Yes, true.  Bus travel leads with 4.3 deaths/journey.  But the distance is short.

• Bus    4.3
• Rail  20
• Foot 40
• Car   40
• Air 117

Deaths/billion hours:

• Bus                 11.1
• Rail                 30
• Air                  30.8
• Car                130
• Motorcycle  4840

So in different ways, bus and train travel pretty much are close to air safety in travel safety.

However, air travel is getting safer.

Here are the safest airlines:

1. Air New Zealand
2. Qantas
3. Virgin Australia
4. Etihad Airways
5. Qatar Airways
6. Emirates
7. All Nippon Airways
8. Finnair
9. Cathay Pacific Airways
10. Alaska Airlines
11. SAS
12. Korean Air
13. Singapore Airlines
14. EVA Air
15. British Airways
16. Turkish Airlines
17. TAP Air Portugal
18. Lufthansa/Swiss Group
19. KLM
20. Japan Airlines
21. 
    Hawaiian Airlines
22. American Airlines
23. Air France
24. Air Canada Group
25. United Airlines

What has happened to United Airlines?

All in all, air travel is relatively safe.  Plus you can't go around the world in a bus.  However, if it's a longer life you want, go on a cruise, it's ten times safer than air.

According to research compiled by the Daspit Law Firm, cruise ships have the lowest rate of deaths per billion passenger miles with 0.08. Compare that to 11.9 for rail travel, 3.3 for cars and trucks and 0.8 for commercial air, and traveling on the seas is a relatively safe venture.

Thus, on our next trip, we are going around the world, incorporating three cruises to integrate with air travel.  I close with some dancing.

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