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THE REPUBLICAN PLAN TO WIN THE PRESIDENCY

BREAKING NEWS!!!  Nine months ago, after a court case, Donald Trump, 77, paid $5 million to E. Jean Carroll, 80, who accused him in 2019 of sexually abusing her in 1996.  He continued to defame her, so she sued again, but for only $24 million more.  However, in a judgement just announced, the jury of 9 penalized Trump another $83.3 million for his big mouth, fat fingers and deplorable actions.  

One beginning editorial:  I can't understand why Trump only strengthens the link with his MAGA group, while alienating the margin of difference (those Republicans and Independents who are solid American citizens) the group that will make the difference in determining the next U.S. president.  Surely he understands, and his close supporters too, that blasting out as he does like an uncontrolled loudmouth on autocracy, misogyny and other hot topics, is no way to swing those key voters to support him.  My only presumption is that he is mentally unstable.

A couple of days ago I posted on:  AN OPTIMAL PLAN FOR THE REPUBLICAN PARTY.  This surmisal had to do with Nikki Haley running as vice president with Donald Trump.  The following is a variation of that plan based on developing circumstances.

I've been observing what is happening in the Republican primaries/caucuses and have come to yet another speculative conclusion.   What if what you see is mostly noise shrouding their true plan?

  • The Republican Party is, essentially, the mind of Donald Trump, so there is no shadowy cabal plotting their future.
  • Is Trump capable of a truly shrewd plan?
  • Here is the reality of what will happen over the next few weeks.
    • Trump will overwhelm Haley in every race through Super Tuesday, and after.
    • For insurance purposes, it is in the Republican interest to keep Haley active and before the public.  After all, Trump is vulnerable to a range of serious problems.
    • Republican billionaire megadonors Charles and David Koch formed a political network called Americans for Prosperity two decades ago.
      • This organization transformed the Tea Party movement to bedevil the Obama administration.
  • They, however, must cherish democracy and clearly worry about Trump, for in 2023 this group said it was opposing his re-election as president.
  • This is the group that has been funding Haley.  Watch this video.
  • My sense is that they've come to a conclusion that Trump will somehow be derailed from running as the Republican presidential candidate.  But there is something electable about Haley.
  • So they went to Trump after the New Hampshire primary and worked out a compromise.  Mind you, this is totally speculative.
  • So here is the Republican-Trump-Koch Brothers scheme to win the presidency    .
    • Keep funding Haley until Super Tuesday.
    • Sure, Haley will not fare well in any state.
    • Arrange for an announcement by mid-March, if not much earlier, for Trump to proudly announce that he will bring the Republican party together by selecting Nikki Haley as his vice-presidential running mate.
  • What she will bring to the ticket is a female who can bring in recalcitrant Republicans who love the country, a lot of Independents, and maybe even some Democrats, the voting margin that will determine who will win on November 5.
  • If Trump can control himself, this combo will be formidable against Biden.
  • So if the Koch Brothers are so distrustful of Trump, what if he is allowed to run and wins?  
    • And it would be worse if it was Haley, indeed, who made the crucial difference.
    • Sometimes you need to gamble, especially if you have good reasons.
    • There is still some chance that the Supreme Court will not permit him to run in certain states.  Looks like the sentiment today though is that the Supreme Court will clear him to run.
  • First, the Supreme Court will almost surely deny Trump immunity from prosecution.  A question is when and if it acts.  The Koch brothers are betting this will be sometime this summer, if not earlier.
  • Those civil court cases in New York could fine Trump up to half a billion dollars, and he is crucifying himself with all his inane comments.
  • The Florida case is minor, and the Georgia case now seems to have personnel problems and could be delayed.
  • However, the DC trial with Judge Tanya Chutkan with federal prosecutor Jack Smith will proceed when the Supreme Court either acts on this matter, or not, for an announcement is excepted next week from a 3-judge federal court on this matter of immunity.   Then the Supreme court will get into the act.  It does appear that the March 4 trial date will need to be delayed into the summer.
  • As my suppositional plan keeps getting adjusted, and if the Koch Brothers remain committed, Trump could still pick Haley in mid-July during the Republican convention.
  • Then, from the Koch viewpoint, that crucial January 6 trial will become pivotal.  
    • I can't imagine the Supreme Court paving the way for democracy to end, so they almost surely will judge that Trump is not immune from prosecution, and announce by early summer at the latest.
    • If that happens, while the right graphic is condemning, it is certain that the proceedings from this DC trial should influence a few percent of Republicans, say as low as 5%, and a few more Independents, maybe 10%, to make the margin of difference in a close election. 
    • There will be an appeals process, so a final judgement is not necessary, just nice if that becomes possible.
    • If Trump nevertheless beats Biden, goodbye to American Democracy.
    • Or maybe the voting public will come to its senses and save the country.
Oh well, this is a wonderful world of ours.

- 

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