New Hampshire primary voting will not end until 8PM ET. - Donald Trump should beat Nikki Haley by double-digits.
- The next contest will be in Nevada, which is rather confusing, and I should stop here, but won't.
Democrats and Republicans couldn't agree on primary or caucus, and this is now a mess.- For those citizens choosing the primary system (which means to vote by showing up at a polling place), early voting begins on January 27 and runs through February 2. Here is the list of who is running. 20 individuals, including Biden and Haley, but no Trump.
- This I'm not certain, but I think Democrats will only use the above system, while Republicans have the option to do one or both.
- The matter of who is running does not matter, and candidates had the option of being in the primary or caucus, but only one.
- And, get this, Republicans can either vote only, or also show up at a caucus, which will occur on Thursday, February 8 between 5PM and 7:30PM.
- You with me so far?
- It doesn't matter. While I don't know of a very current poll of Trump vs Haley, Trump will crush Haley. Why? Trump is in the caucus only and Haley is in the primary only. However, in Nevada, only the caucus results count. Thus, Trump will get all the votes for the national convention. Does this make any sense to you if you are a Haley supporter? As I say, Nevada is confusing.
About South Carolina on February 24, Axios indicated Trump at 64%, Haley 25% and DeSantis 8%, but most of the DeSantis support will go to Trump. And Haley is former governor of this state.- Then Michigan on February 27, a poll has Trump at close to 70% and Haley not even 20%.
Super Tuesday comes on March 5 when 15 or so states hold their primary/caucus.- The most useless Republican caucus will be held in Hawaii on March 12. Can you believe, maybe 20 years ago, I actually went to one of these. And I'm a Democrat.
If I ran the Republican Party, this would be my optimal plan:
- Sometime soon after Haley gets beat by Trump in New Hampshire, a deal is made between the two camps.
- Kiss and make up, with Trump selecting Haley as his vice-presidential candidate.
Trump's MAGA fans might not love this, but it should be okay if done right.- From the party viewpoint, if Trump does get derailed by the Supreme Court or his various criminal trials, and is deemed unworthy or unable to become the Republican nominee in mid-July, then the obvious choice to replace him would be Haley.
Biden will beat Trump on 5November2024. He has too much baggage.- Haley now usually prevails over Biden in polls. Age becomes a huge factor.
The Republican Party is in almost total disarray today, and losing Independents. They know that a Trump presidency could mean the end of Democracy. Yet, they march along to their demise. Nikki Haley could well be their savior if they work this right.
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