THE 2023 ENERGY REVIEW

 Much of the following comes from The American Energy Society.

• To begin.

Retrospective:

5 hot topics from 5 years ago (2018)

1. The US surpasses Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the world's largest oil producer.
 

2. Coal barely holds on as top source for generated electricity in the US (the last year).
 

3. President Trump makes clear that the US opposes the development of the proposed Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany.
 

4. President Trump's cabinet instability (Pruitt resigns and Wheeler takes over as Director of the EPA, US Secretary of Interior Ryan Zinke fights to save his job, etc.)
 

5. Arnold Schwarzenegger — former Terminator and California governor — sues the oil and gas industry for "First Degree Murder." 

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2023:

January:  The National Ignition Facility at the Lawrence Livermore National Lab initiates a fusion reaction that produces more energy than it took to ignite it. This is the second successful fusion experiment, which means fusion is now an engineering challenge rather than a scientific uncertainty.

• 
  February:  The US is on pace to set new oil production records in 2023 (it does); meanwhile, natural gas prices fall below $3 per million BTU. Note: this is an unusual market event (oil prices up but gas prices down).

• 
  March:  China approves the largest expansion of coal-fired power plants since 2015; meanwhile, President Biden approves the Willow Oil Project that permits drilling on federal land in Alaska (he reverses position in October).  All evidence confirms that Europe has successfully transitioned away from Russian energy following its invasion of Ukraine one year prior.

• 
  April:  The IPCC released its sixth and final assessment, an 8,000-page report.  
• Climate impacts are more widespread and severe than anticipated in the first assessment.
• Some climate impacts are irreversible.  
• More investment in resilience is needed.
• A person born in 1953 has experienced 0.85°C warming in their lifetime, but someone born in 2020 will experience about three times higher warming rates in the same time frame.
• 
  May:  There is more than 2,000 gigawatts (GW) of new power generation and energy storage waiting for permit approval; the total amount in the queue (~1,250 GW capacity) equals the installed capacity of the entire US power plant fleet. On the one hand, the amount of power in the queue confirms a transition is possible; on the other hand, most of these projects won't get built because permit approval takes too long.
• 
  June:  Bottlenecks in battery materials are preventing the sector from scaling. The 5 most significant material bottlenecks are, in order:
1. lithium 
2. fluorinated polymers
3. battery-grade nickel
4. graphite
5. copper
   Note: there are no bottlenecks for the global supply of cobalt.

• 
  July:  Monday, July 3, 2023, was the hottest day ever recorded globally; meanwhile, wildfires are widespread throughout Canada.

• 
  August:  
• Declining GHG emissions in the US and Europe were offset by increasing emissions in China and India, leading to a flatlining of global atmospheric pollution through the first half of 2023. (Note: GHG emissions from the power sector, the largest source of the world's emissions, are falling for the first time.)
• Fire weather — drought followed by high-winds — cause wildfires on the Hawai'ian islands of Maui and the Big Island; meanwhile, the oceans are also the hottest they've ever been. 

• 
  September:  The worst-case climate scenario — a global mean temperature rise above 5°C — now seems unlikely, mainly because the US and Europe have reduced emissions.

• 
  October:  

• 
  November:  Drought in Central America is limiting ship traffic through the Panama Canal, causing another supply chain "crisis."

• December:  Interest in the offshore wind market surges in the US (especially California and New Jersey), then it recedes in the H2; EV sales also outperform projections in H1 2023 then decline in H2. Same trends with water heaters. On the other hand, US oil production (and global oil consumption), global natural gas production and consumption, mining for critical minerals, and global production of coal-generated electricity all set annual records (India is the fastest growing energy market).

For the year, regarding global warming:

• Hottest month in recorded history (July)
• Hottest average ocean temperature (101°F, in Florida Keys)
• Lowest Antarctic ice cover (1.6 million square km below 2022)
• Passing 2°C warming (November 17)
• Highest CO2 emissions (up 1.1% from last year's record)
• Highest atmospheric CO2 measurement (424 ppm in May)
• Warmest year in recorded history.

What was the one word to describe 2022?

The most common word submitted by AES Members in 2022 was "coercion," but our favorite was "ostrich."   The word to describe 2021 was "vulnerable," which seems prescient.

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