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DONALD TRUMP WILL LIKELY DOMINATE THE HEADLINES IN 2024

IF the Ukraine-Russia war does not escalate into a worldwide nuclear holocaust, the Israel-Hamas war does does not expand into the entirety of the the Arabian peninsula, China does not invade Taiwan, there is no new pandemic and the effects of global warming do not suddenly become uncontrollable, Donald Trump will dominate the headlines in 2024.  Sure, there will be other issues, like the potential danger of AI, metastability of cryptocurrency, actions of the Supreme Court and continuing romance of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce.

Then today, two more peccadillos, which for almost anyone else would be career destroying and worse:

  • Apparently, when he was president, he took nearly $8 million from a bunch of foreign countries, outlined in the Raskin House report.  China gave him $5.5 million to gain influence.  So did those others.
  • Newly released Jefferey Epstein documents again showed Donald Trump, who, like many other prominent people, like Prince Andrew and Bill Clinton, were involved in dalliances with underage girls.  Melinda Gates mentioned this link as one of the reasons for divorcing Bill.

Of course, just Donald Trump's legal problems should be enough to capture most of media attention in 2024.  But he also has a presidential race against Joe Biden on November 5, 2024. Trump is the only president who came into office never having any political nor military experience.

A few more interesting facts about Trump:
  • SPY magazine sent out checks worth 13 cents to 58 of the richest people in the U.S.  The two who cashed it was an arms dealer and Donald Trump.
  • Has been sued more than 3000 times.
  • Melania cut Donald's hair in their early years.
  • More than 29 women have accused him of sexual misconduct.
  • Aside from the nickname “The Donald,” the president was also given hilarious nicknames from his critics such as Cadet Bone Spurs, Your Favorite President, Tariff Man, President T, The Ratings Machine-DJT, The Chosen One, King of Debt, Orange Julius, Rome Burning in Man Form, World’s Greatest Troll, Godzilla with Less Foreign Policy Experience, and Tiny Hands.
  • Trump has been impeached twice.
  • You  can buy Donald Trump toilet paper.

Let's next look at Trump on trial.  You can read the details, but he faces five separate trials this year, two civil cases where he could lose hundreds of millions of dollars, and four criminal cases, facing 91 felony counts, where can be sent to jail for 20 years.

Yet he looks to be the favorite to become the first Republican ever to win three straight presidential nominations.  So let me speculate on what must be happening behind the scenes.  

  • Republican primaries?  
    • Polls show he is easily favored to prevail, for he is at 65%, compared to Ron DeSantis at 11%, Nikki Haley 10%, Vivek Ramaswamy 4% and Chris Christie at, who cares.
  • So why are they bothering to continue running?
    • First, Trump could be sent to jail, and one of them could well become the nominee to face Biden.
    • Of this group, Haley could be formidable against Biden.
  • Some of them harbor thoughts of becoming the vice president selection by Trump, thus, they mostly try to be nice-nice to him, while not alienating MAGA support.  Looks like Haley, though, has already irritated this group.  Rep. Marjorie Greene has indicated that MAGA wold revolt if Haley became the running mate.
  • Christie has been provided financial support by never-Trumpers and hidden Democrats in PACs, and could for awhile continue his crusade to criticize Trump.
  • The South Carolina primary on February 24 could be crucial, for Haley was governor of that state.  This is where Joe Biden resurrected his campaign in 2020.  However, this summer a poll showed Trump at 48% and Haley only at 14%
  • If Biden remains reasonably healthy, he and Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominees for 5November2024.  If not, the Democrats will be in trouble.
  • The Supreme Court will vie with Trump for the headlines, as they will weigh in on several matters pertaining to the primaries and Trump's trials.  My guess is that Trump will be allowed to run for the presidency, but will not gain immunity from those trials.
  • Those Trump trials in DC and Georgia will only further tarnish him.  Surely, he will lose more votes than not.
  • Here is why I think Biden will beat Trump again.
    • There will be, say, 5% or so never-Trump Republicans choosing not to show up on election day.  This will also seriously hurt Republicans in a variety of state races.
    • Maybe double that, or 10% of Independents who just hate Trump could well vote for Biden.
    • Under these conditions, there could be a Democratic landslide on 5November2024, with Democrats gaining back both houses of Congress.
  • Then there are the other issues.
    • For some reason, the immigration mess will hurt Biden.  You would think that Trump and Republicans wanting to prevent immigration from the south would gain more Hispanic votes for Biden.  But, apparently not
  • Democracy is at stake this year.  A Trump presidency will send our country towards dictatorship.  There are a lot of Americans who are patriotic and won't like that.  This could well be the issue most important to Democrats.
  • Abortion will be a big help to Democrats.
  • There was another school shooting in Iowa today, and the bottom line is that Democrats gain votes whenever more occur.
  • The global warming and environmental issues never seem to matter in presidential elections.  This time these factors will carry a little more weight, and Republicans, led by Trump, not wanting to believe that climate heating is real, will hurt them.  Not much, but enough as to be a minor factor.
  • Other matters like House Republicans inability to govern will help Democrats, and the wars in Ukraine and Gaza will be just enough to favor Biden over Trump.  Voters tend to lean in the direction of maintaining an incumbent in time of war.

So while Donald Trump will dominate the headlines in 2024, this would include getting crushed for the presidency on 5November2024.  Then will come follow-up trials to send him to jail.

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