Skip to main content

DONALD TRUMP WILL LIKELY DOMINATE THE HEADLINES IN 2024

IF the Ukraine-Russia war does not escalate into a worldwide nuclear holocaust, the Israel-Hamas war does does not expand into the entirety of the the Arabian peninsula, China does not invade Taiwan, there is no new pandemic and the effects of global warming do not suddenly become uncontrollable, Donald Trump will dominate the headlines in 2024.  Sure, there will be other issues, like the potential danger of AI, metastability of cryptocurrency, actions of the Supreme Court and continuing romance of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce.

Then today, two more peccadillos, which for almost anyone else would be career destroying and worse:

  • Apparently, when he was president, he took nearly $8 million from a bunch of foreign countries, outlined in the Raskin House report.  China gave him $5.5 million to gain influence.  So did those others.
  • Newly released Jefferey Epstein documents again showed Donald Trump, who, like many other prominent people, like Prince Andrew and Bill Clinton, were involved in dalliances with underage girls.  Melinda Gates mentioned this link as one of the reasons for divorcing Bill.

Of course, just Donald Trump's legal problems should be enough to capture most of media attention in 2024.  But he also has a presidential race against Joe Biden on November 5, 2024. Trump is the only president who came into office never having any political nor military experience.

A few more interesting facts about Trump:
  • SPY magazine sent out checks worth 13 cents to 58 of the richest people in the U.S.  The two who cashed it was an arms dealer and Donald Trump.
  • Has been sued more than 3000 times.
  • Melania cut Donald's hair in their early years.
  • More than 29 women have accused him of sexual misconduct.
  • Aside from the nickname “The Donald,” the president was also given hilarious nicknames from his critics such as Cadet Bone Spurs, Your Favorite President, Tariff Man, President T, The Ratings Machine-DJT, The Chosen One, King of Debt, Orange Julius, Rome Burning in Man Form, World’s Greatest Troll, Godzilla with Less Foreign Policy Experience, and Tiny Hands.
  • Trump has been impeached twice.
  • You  can buy Donald Trump toilet paper.

Let's next look at Trump on trial.  You can read the details, but he faces five separate trials this year, two civil cases where he could lose hundreds of millions of dollars, and four criminal cases, facing 91 felony counts, where can be sent to jail for 20 years.

Yet he looks to be the favorite to become the first Republican ever to win three straight presidential nominations.  So let me speculate on what must be happening behind the scenes.  

  • Republican primaries?  
    • Polls show he is easily favored to prevail, for he is at 65%, compared to Ron DeSantis at 11%, Nikki Haley 10%, Vivek Ramaswamy 4% and Chris Christie at, who cares.
  • So why are they bothering to continue running?
    • First, Trump could be sent to jail, and one of them could well become the nominee to face Biden.
    • Of this group, Haley could be formidable against Biden.
  • Some of them harbor thoughts of becoming the vice president selection by Trump, thus, they mostly try to be nice-nice to him, while not alienating MAGA support.  Looks like Haley, though, has already irritated this group.  Rep. Marjorie Greene has indicated that MAGA wold revolt if Haley became the running mate.
  • Christie has been provided financial support by never-Trumpers and hidden Democrats in PACs, and could for awhile continue his crusade to criticize Trump.
  • The South Carolina primary on February 24 could be crucial, for Haley was governor of that state.  This is where Joe Biden resurrected his campaign in 2020.  However, this summer a poll showed Trump at 48% and Haley only at 14%
  • If Biden remains reasonably healthy, he and Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominees for 5November2024.  If not, the Democrats will be in trouble.
  • The Supreme Court will vie with Trump for the headlines, as they will weigh in on several matters pertaining to the primaries and Trump's trials.  My guess is that Trump will be allowed to run for the presidency, but will not gain immunity from those trials.
  • Those Trump trials in DC and Georgia will only further tarnish him.  Surely, he will lose more votes than not.
  • Here is why I think Biden will beat Trump again.
    • There will be, say, 5% or so never-Trump Republicans choosing not to show up on election day.  This will also seriously hurt Republicans in a variety of state races.
    • Maybe double that, or 10% of Independents who just hate Trump could well vote for Biden.
    • Under these conditions, there could be a Democratic landslide on 5November2024, with Democrats gaining back both houses of Congress.
  • Then there are the other issues.
    • For some reason, the immigration mess will hurt Biden.  You would think that Trump and Republicans wanting to prevent immigration from the south would gain more Hispanic votes for Biden.  But, apparently not
  • Democracy is at stake this year.  A Trump presidency will send our country towards dictatorship.  There are a lot of Americans who are patriotic and won't like that.  This could well be the issue most important to Democrats.
  • Abortion will be a big help to Democrats.
  • There was another school shooting in Iowa today, and the bottom line is that Democrats gain votes whenever more occur.
  • The global warming and environmental issues never seem to matter in presidential elections.  This time these factors will carry a little more weight, and Republicans, led by Trump, not wanting to believe that climate heating is real, will hurt them.  Not much, but enough as to be a minor factor.
  • Other matters like House Republicans inability to govern will help Democrats, and the wars in Ukraine and Gaza will be just enough to favor Biden over Trump.  Voters tend to lean in the direction of maintaining an incumbent in time of war.

So while Donald Trump will dominate the headlines in 2024, this would include getting crushed for the presidency on 5November2024.  Then will come follow-up trials to send him to jail.

- 

Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

HONOLULU TO SEATTLE

The story of the day is Hurricane Milton, now a Category 4 at 145 MPH, with a track that has moved further south and the eye projected to make landfall just south of Sarasota.  Good news for Tampa, which is 73 miles north.  Milton will crash into Florida as a Category 4, and is huge, so a lot of problems can still be expected in Tampa Bay with storm surge.  If the eye had crossed into the state just north of Tampa, the damage would have been catastrophic.  Milton is a fast-moving storm, currently at 17 MPH, so as bad as the rainfall will be over Florida, again, a blessing.  The eye will make landfall around 10PM EDT today, and will move into the Atlantic Ocean north of Palm Bay Thursday morning. My first trip to Seattle was in June of 1962 just after I graduated from Stanford University.  Caught a bus. Was called the  Century 21 Exposition .  Also the Seattle World's Fair.  10 million joined me on a six-month run.  My first. These a...
Post a Comment
Read more

WHY YOU SHOULD CONVERT TO A JAPANESE HIGH TECH TOILET

Did you know that   Oktoberfest   in Germany is mostly in September?  The very first day of Oktoberfest 2021 was supposed to be today, September 18, extending into October 3.  Well, as in 2020, Oktoberfest was cancelled. So why is it called by that month when it is held mostly in September?  The first celebration in 1810 was in October. Did you also know that Oktoberfest is held only in Munich?  These days seven million drink more than a liter ( about three typical cans ) of beer each, costing around $11.  Except for my wife and I when we followed the crowd to board the S-Bahn to the fairgrounds near Old Town.  It was drizzling a bit.  We bought a large pretzel outside of a typical barn where beer is served.  We did not know that you needed to get this inside the hall.  So no one came to serve us beer.  After a while we decided to have lunch, and the restaurant we settled on only served wine.  Thus, we might have been the ...
Post a Comment
Read more

THE FIRST 84 YEARS OF MY LIFE

The first half of my life was spent preparing myself for my final 42 years.  This was a mostly trying and stressful period involving a less than ideal youth, then struggles to get through school, my first few jobs and accompanying life, ending two months later on a Sunday with  Part 15E , so it was a spiritual conclusion to my final transition.  I never did count the number of actual postings, but I suspect it was around 25 parts.  The ending had to do with golf, the disappearance and re-appearance of an  8-iron cover.  That was the final clue to whether the beyond after death would be eternal gloom or Heaven. Today, I provide only one transition, but hint about a final one, for this, after all, is Sunday.  I'm 84 years old, so let me summarize what happened during the first phase, from 0-42, and follow with the years 42-84.  As this is 2024, that key transition year was 1982. I can't seem to find this photo, but as a one-year old baby, I was fat....
Post a Comment
Read more