HOW GOOD ARE PREDICTIONS OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT YEAR?

 

I regularly try to predict the future on this first day of the year.  Sometimes I review how I did at the end of that year.  

On December 31, 2012, I predicted what would happen by the Year 2020, or eight years into the future.  

• 
  The most important thing, although this was not a prediction, was that I made it into 2020.  All my life I've wanted to do this, for 2020 was 36 years away when in 1974 I was part of a NASA effort to educate the public about Planet Earth.  I came up with the program name:  Earth 2020.
• So, anyway, on January 2, 2020, I looked back on my prognostications.  Had eight wrongs and two rights.

So while I admitted that I'm clearly not a seer, I mischievously predicted what I thought would surely occur in 2020.  I did not anticipate the pandemic, so while I was mostly right, including the UK leaving the European Union and Donald Trump losing his re-election attempt, the Dubai World Expo was shifted into 2021.  I was also right on the sun rising the morning of January 1, 2021, and Greta Thunberg smiling. Got 9 out of 10 right.

Well, what about credible sources, such as the New York Times?  They have been cranking out predictions since 1851.  Yesterday they provided the following:

1860-61

The New York Times

Alongside coverage of New Year’s celebrations, The Times reported “warlike preparations” — including Southern demands that federal troops vacate Fort Sumter, near Charleston, S.C. Still, the first paper of 1861 sounded hopeful, predicting that “the great Republic will grow stronger and greater with the procession of the months.” Instead, the Civil War began in April, with the Confederate attack on Fort Sumter.

1928-29

A Times story about the country’s financial outlook on Jan. 1, 1929, acknowledged the difficulty of prediction but concluded on an upbeat note: “as to the underlying strength of the American economic system, however, there is only one opinion.” That opinion was bullishness. One Chicago banker predicted that the newly elected president, Herbert Hoover, would “give the country a most constructive and able administration.” The stock market crashed less than 10 months later.

1938-39

The New York Times

The threat of another world war stalked Times Square revelers ringing in 1939. “Among the funmakers, there were few who did not realize that the twelve months that had passed had seen drastic changes in the map of the world,” The Times reported, referring to Nazi Germany’s annexation of Austria. The newspaper also quoted a German economist visiting New York who predicted “a general European war in 1939.” Germany invaded Poland eight months later, and England and France declared war.

1967-68

Times journalists knew 1968 would be a big political year — but got the specifics wrong. A New Year’s Eve story declared Nelson Rockefeller, New York’s governor, to be the only candidate whom Republican officials believed would beat President Lyndon Johnson. In reality, Johnson was so unpopular that he dropped out of the race, while Rockefeller dithered and launched a late and ultimately failed campaign. Richard Nixon took office in January 1969.

1983-84

The New York Times

A poll by The Times, published on the first day of 1984, captured rising American optimism. But there were enough mixed signs that one G.O.P. pollster said he did not expect “a big party sweep” in the November elections. In fact, Ronald Reagan won re-election with the biggest Electoral College margin since Franklin Roosevelt’s in 1936.

2006-07

“Everyone’s always asking me when Apple will come out with a cellphone,” a Times technology columnist wrote in 2006. “My answer is, ‘Probably never.’” Apple introduced the iPhone in June 2007, transforming life in ways both good and bad. (That columnist, David Pogue, later included this episode in an article he wrote about the worst tech predictions of all time.)

So if the New York Times can be so wrong, I don't feel so bad.

The world is doing fine if Taylor Swift can again cheer the Kansas Chiefs to victory, beating the Cincinnati Bengals yesterday.  Incidentally, today is the first day of the NCAA football championship:  Washington vs Texas in the Sugar Bowl and Michigan vs Alabama in the Rose Bowl.  Beginning next year, the format changes to twelve teams.

And, by the way, Taylor Swift yesterday broke Elvis's record as the solo artist with the most weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 Album chart, for her 1989 Taylor's Version (click on that to view the entire 1 hour and 17 minute album) landed at the top for the fifth time in the final tracking week of 2023.  

Finally, photos welcoming 2024 from around the world.

Sydney.

Melbourne.

Balloon release at Tokyo Tower.

Bangkok.

Hong Kong.

We'll be staying at the New York Marriott Marquis on our next trip, which fronts Times Square.  The first three are from this hotel.

-