THIS HOUSE JANUARY 6 HEARING WILL DETERMINE CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP IN 2023

Earlier this week, New York Times columnist David Brooks wrote an op-ed entitled, The Jan. 6 Committee Has Already Blown It.  I have long followed his editorials, and universally tend to agree with him.  This time, I think he has missed the mark.

Essentially, Brooks said that the Committee has a chance to save Democracy, but seems to be distracted by small-minded thinking, like nailing Donald Trump and winning the mid-term elections.  He specifically mentioned that this group has to insure that the confirmation process on 6 January 2025 and 6 January 2029 revert back to those of 2017 and before.

Of course Democrats have continuing Democracy as an ultimate goal.  However, to get there you need to ascertain a majority.  The current edge they have in the House and Senate is minimal.  To countermand what is happening in Republican states regarding election day processing and preserve the electoral process you need more Democrats in both chambers.

Most political observers, because of inflation, the economy and history, tend to believe that the House will revert back to Republican control on November 8, and, maybe too, the Senate.  To get to any final objective, you need to solidify the entire pathway.  What better than to sway enough voters to gain many more House seats and dream about 60 Democrats in Senate?

About the Committee doings, the members keep underscoring that it is not their job to prove Trump guilty.  They say it is up to the Department of Justice to take their findings and determine if there needs to be any judicial follow-up.  Come on, now.  Sure, there is such a thing as separation of powers.  But the Committee is full of Democrats, the President is Democratic, and he nominated the Attorney General.  Of course there will be an indictment of former President Donald Trump...if they all feel this will help them strengthen their hold on the U.S. Congress and lay the groundwork for the 2024 presidential election.

While you read of dumb mistakes politicians make, those who run the Democratic party are not idiots.  They know that their best hope for stronger dominance is the continued distraction provided by Trump.  They pray that as many of those he supports in the primaries will win, for that will only improve the chances of a Democrat to prevail on November 8.

Why?  Try these numbers.

• No matter what happens in these hearings, there is no way you can change the minds of half of all Republican voters, or maybe 75%.
• If this January 6 Committee can provide sufficient information for some of them to wonder if, indeed, the 2020 election won by Biden was not a fraud, perhaps just this process can influence some of these 25-50%.
• After all, most Republicans are moral, honest and patriotic members of society.  They've already had several years witnessing Trump's immorality, misogyny, lying and psychological problems.  He is a serial liar who only thinks about himself.  Let's say only 10% of those in the 25-50% category are convinced not to vote for who He supports.  You then have from 2.5-5% of Republicans choosing to either not vote or do so for a Democrat.
• But Democrats are not much concerned about this 2.5%-5% of Republicans, although just this margin will affect a few elections.
• 
  Democrats are trying to swing Independents away from voting for a Republican, especially one supported by Trump.
• In April of this year:
• Republicans 28%
• Independents 42%
• Democrats  28%
• Or historically:

• I can run through the factors again, but it is clear that a higher percentage of Independents will more easily be swayed by this deleterious Trump-effect.
• Let's say though, conservatively, 5%-10% of Independents turn away from Trump candidates.
• This group would most probably vote for a Democrat.
• If Independents do, this would improve the Democrat advantage by 7.5%.  Not sure how much you can add from similar Republicans (because many would just not vote rather than do so for a Democrat), but say 2.5% is the percentage.
• This means that in the House particularly, where everyone runs, a 10% gain by a Democrat in many districts will add tens of new Democrats to the 2023 House.
• The Senate should add even more Democrats, percentage-wise because there are 21 Republicans and only 14 Democrats running on November 8.  Further, at least six Republican incumbents have chosen not run, and only one Democrat.
• Throw in this 10% difference, and it is looking like Democrats will add a couple of seats.  
• If this happens, a lot more White House and liberal programs will pass through the Senate in 2023 and 2024.
• Only then will the electoral process be better protected, gun violence more surely checked and abortion rights protected.  Incidentally, all these issues will on November 8 also help Democrats.

In a way, some Republicans also are adjusting, for the U.S. Congress will soon pass a very, very limited gun control bill.  Won't control automatic weapons, and is nowhere close to what is truly needed, a step nevertheless that will help some Republicans.

So about Brooks and the need to save our Democracy, I agree, but would like to convince him that you can't just talk about the end product.  What is your strategy to succeed?  This House January 6 Committee is a key ingredient.  They will prolong this process through the summer, and work with the Justice Department to follow-through on what is necessary now and into the future.  They have positioned Democrats to retain control on the House and Senate on November 8.  This strengthened combination will then better be able to establish a more solid foundation for Democracy.

One more bit of news, the crypto market capitalization plummeted below $1 trillion today, the first time since February of 2021.  This follows the downtrend in the stock market, reacting to the 40-year inflation high of 8.6%, as the Dow might soon fall below 30,000.

There is nothing safe in the crypto world.  But, like gambling and penny stocks, some seek adventure, hoping for life-changing luck.  Bitcoin has always been volatile, and dropped 80% in the 2014 and 2018 bear markets.   Here is the 2018 story:

Today at 23,360, it seems headed for $20,000.  In November of last year it was just about at $69,00.  Here is the price history since 2010:

Let's say you bought a Bitcoin in 2010 for 9 cents.  It would be worth $766,567 today.  On the other hand, if you bought at peak, you will have lost $45,640 on just one Bitcoin.

Say you purchased Ethereum instead.  On 8 November 2021 the price was $4815. Today, $1,257.  In the same timeframe that Bitcoin dropped 34%, Ethereum fell 26%.

The crux of the matter is that you can't be timid in this game and history has shown that you need to hang in there.  One in five Americans have taken this plunge.  Let me stop at that.

Oh, one more thing.  The second House January 6 Committee hearing was held this morning, not in prime time.  If interested in what happened, MSNBC will from 8PM (2PM Hawaii time) summarize what happened.  Future hearings:

• Wednesday, June 15 at 10AM EDT: will look into Trump pressuring the Justice Department and Republicans in Congress who helped him.
• Thursday, June 16, 1PM EDT:  will look into Trump pressuring Mike Pence, crackpot John Eastman recommendation to invalidate the votes of 5 states and the judge that resisted Trumps demands.
• No date for 5th hearing, but will outline how Trump tried to turn around five states.
• 6th and 7th will focus on Trump's influence on the mob that attacked the U.S. Capitol.

You will hear terms like normal Trump supporters and crazy supporters.  The Democrats are willing to tone down their vilification of Republican House members, but go after people like Eastman, Navarro and maybe Giuliani.

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