COVID: Should you travel today?

My answer to the query above is no. However, COVID-19 deaths are continuing to decline, and if you're fully vaccinated and boosted twice, and will take a third booster in the fall, traveling will very soon be no different than during the normal flu season.

Of course you should not listen to me. Here is the latest CDC travel map.

Anticipating the best, we are looking forward to going to the Orient in late October, spending some Fall colors time in Japan, followed by a 12-day Celebrity Millennium cruise from Yokohama to Singapore. Taking data from Worldometer, here are the pandemic conditions on all our planned stops.

Okinawa:

My travel mate has been looking forward to the Okinawa 7th Worldwide Uchinanchu Taikai Festival from October 30 to November 3.

6th gathering in Naha drew 7,353 people from 29 countries and 430,000 attendees.

This is the 50th anniversary of Okinawa's reversion to Japan.

Approximately 420,000 people from Okinawa have migrated to North and South American, including Hawaii.
In Hawaii especially, they were the leaders of local restaurants, and our current governor, David Ige, has Okinawan roots.
The mascot of this event is Kasamaru, who has a special skill of climbing up on the roof and daydreaming.

Japan yesterday had 17,201 new COVID cases, with 26 new deaths.

Those calculate to 137 new cases/million population and 0.2 new deaths/million.
In comparison:

USA 280 new cases/million and 0.6 new deaths/million.
Hawaii 714 new cases/million and 0.7 new deaths/million.
Germany 892 new cases/million and 1.26 new deaths/million.

The world is beginning to eliminate restrictions to travel.

The U.S. from Monday will remove testing requirements for international travelers, joining many other countries.
Even though Japan has only a fraction of new cases/deaths/million than most countries, it still is restricting tourists to only tours. This will not doubt open up by the end of the summer, if not earlier. Certainly by the end of October.

Early in November we will fly to Tokyo from Naha and spend either a week or two on Japan Rail Pass.

We haven't yet made any reservations, but the plan at this moment is to on November 17 board the Celebrity Millennium for a 12-day cruise from Yokohama to Singapore.

We are thinking about reserving an AquaClass Stateroom, which allows you to dine in specialty restaurants, plus premier beverage package. Comes with a king-size bed and tub. Not bad for less than $500, night.

First international stop is to Taiwan, which today is truly suffering:

2845 new cases/million (this is 21 times worse than Japan).
8.9 new deaths/million (this is 44 times worse than Japan).
Taiwan should show a significant decline in five months, so perhaps we can consider a tour.

Then, on to Hong Kong:

88 new cases/million (less than Japan's 137).
? new deaths, which probably means no new deaths.
A safe stop for a tour.

Next, Hue Danang, Vietnam:

9.7 new cases/million (much better than Japan).
0.01 new deaths/million (one death with a total population of 99 million).
Certainly a safe stop.
Danang is known in the U.S. as China Beach. There was a TV program by that name.

I visited China Beach 12 years ago.
I called it the most amazing beach in the world.
A beach 100 yards deep and 20 miles long.

Finally, Singapore on November 29:

503 new cases/million (a lot worse than Japan).
Zero new deaths.
Singapore is like Australia and New Zealand that successfully fended off the Alpha and Beta strains of COVID, but got inundated my Omicron.
However, in five months all should be well.
Already, on April 1 they eased travel restrictions.

As long as you are fully vaccinated.
Don't need to take pre-entry test. Just show proof.

We might still go on to Bangkok or Sydney and return to Honolulu by mid-December.

Australia 1154 new cases/million (8 times worse than Japan) and 1.46 deaths/million (7 times worse than Japan). Yet, you can today travel to Australia if you are fully vaccinated.
Thailand 30 new cases/million (more than 3 times lower than Japan) and 0.34 new deaths/million (higher than Japan but nearly half of the U.S.) Just ended any travel restrictions into the country.

A NEXT COVID SUBVARIANT?

By now most know that the Omicron BA.5 subvariant has become the dominant infectious agent, now accounting for more than 80% of all COVID-19 cases. Very few are aware that a new one, BA.4.6, is sneaking in and steadily rising, now accounting for 13% of sequenced samples . However, as BA.4.6 has emerged from BA.4, while there is uncertainty, the scientific sense is that the latest bivalent booster targeting BA.4 and BA.5 should also be effective for this next threat. One concern is that Evusheld--the only monoclonal antibody authorized for COVID prevention in immunocompromised individuals--is not effective against BA.4.6. Here is a reference as to what this means. A series of two injections is involved. Evusheld was developed by British-Swedish company AstraZeneca, and is a t ixagevimab co-packaged with cilgavimab . More recently, Los Angeles County reported on subvariant BA.2.75.2 . which Tony Fauci termed suspicio...

Part 3: OUR NEXT AROUND THE WORLD ODYSSEY

Before I get into my third, and final, part of this cruise series, let me start with some more newsworthy topics. Thursday was my pandemic day for years. Thus, every so often I return to bring you up to date on the latest developments. All these subvariants derived from that Omicron variant, and each quickly became dominant, with slightly different symptoms. One of these will shock you. There has been a significant decline in the lost of taste and smell. From two-thirds of early patients to now only 10-20% show these symptoms. JN.1, now the dominant subvariant, results in mostly mild symptoms. However, once JN.1 infects some, there seem to be longer-lasting symptoms. Clearly, the latest booster helps prevent contracting Covid. A competing subvariant, BA.2.86, also known as Pirola , a month ago made a run, but JN.1 prevailed. No variant in particular, but research has shown that some of you will begin to lose hair for...

HONOLULU TO SEATTLE

The story of the day is Hurricane Milton, now a Category 4 at 145 MPH, with a track that has moved further south and the eye projected to make landfall just south of Sarasota. Good news for Tampa, which is 73 miles north. Milton will crash into Florida as a Category 4, and is huge, so a lot of problems can still be expected in Tampa Bay with storm surge. If the eye had crossed into the state just north of Tampa, the damage would have been catastrophic. Milton is a fast-moving storm, currently at 17 MPH, so as bad as the rainfall will be over Florida, again, a blessing. The eye will make landfall around 10PM EDT today, and will move into the Atlantic Ocean north of Palm Bay Thursday morning. My first trip to Seattle was in June of 1962 just after I graduated from Stanford University. Caught a bus. Was called the Century 21 Exposition . Also the Seattle World's Fair. 10 million joined me on a six-month run. My first. These a...

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